Why the Dallas Mavericks Will Beat the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals

The Dallas Mavericks won 57 games during the regular season while the Miami Heat won 58 games. Each team has rolled through the playoffs with Dallas beating Portland, the Lakers and Oklahoma City while Miami beat Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago.

Even though the two teams finished with almost identical records, the Heat are nearly a 2-1 favorite in NBA odds to win the Finals.

Is Miami too much of a favorite? Does Dallas have some advantages that will have them winning this series?

Finals 2-3-2 Format

Sometimes we forget that the NBA Finals are a 2-3-2 format.

Miami has the home court edge but if Dallas can win one of the first two games in Miami then they would head home for three straight games and Dallas is 7-1 at home in the postseason.

Season Series

The Mavericks and Heat played twice this season and Dallas won both games. Many people are saying that the games don’t tell us anything because they were played early in the season but that is not really true.

The Mavericks were able to win in Miami by a score of 98-96 and then won in Dallas by a score of 106-95. Dirk Nowitzki led all scorers in the game in Miami with 26 points and the Mavericks out-rebounded the Heat 48-44.

In the matchup in Dallas the Mavericks had six players in double figures and out-rebounded the Heat again 46-43.

Nowitzki, Rebounding and the Bench

The best player in the playoffs has been Dirk Nowitzki. He is averaging 28.4 points per game and is simply on a mission to win an NBA title.

Miami has no one who can guard him so expect him to have a huge series. Dallas out-rebounded the Heat in both matchups this season and their bench outplayed the Heat in both games.

If the Mavericks continue to get great play from Nowitzki, continue to pound the boards, and get more production out of their bench than Miami, they will win this series.