Darren McFadden and Darrius Heyward-Bey Need to Increase Efficiency and Effort

Sometimes to examine the efficiency of certain players, it's useful to compare their statistics with those of former players. Former Oakland Raiders Art Powell and Warren Wells had successful seasons at the beginning of their careers, and in this article I'm going to examine how some of Oakland's recent first round draft picks stack up to the standard they set. Four players are compared: Art Powell, Warren Wells, Darren McFadden and Darrius Heyward-Bey.

The model is limited but it does give some insight about expectations. 

Here are the measures used in the limited comparisons:

	Art Powell		Warren Wells		Darren McFadden			Heyward-Bey
	y/r		y/r		y/r			y/r
	17.9		23.2		9.8			13.8
	17.9		21.5		11.7			14.1
	15.4		26.8		10.8
	19.4		21.7
	17.65		23.3		10.76667			13.95
	y/g		y/g		y/g			y/g
	93.1		21.6		21.9			11.3
	97.2		81.2		20.4			24.4
	57.1		90		39
	73.3		66.8
	80.175		64.9		27.1			17.85
	yscrim		yscrim		yscrm			yscrm
	1304		309		784			143
	1361		1175		602			414
	800		1284		1664
	1026		969
	1122.75		934.25		1016.667			278.5
	td		td		td			td
	16		6		4			1
	11		11		1			1
	12		14		7
	11		11
	12.5		10.5		4			1
	lng		lng		lng			lng
	85		50		27			24
	77		94		48			69
	66		80		67
	46		60
	68.5		71		47.33333			46.5

Both Art Powell and Warren Wells played for the Oakland Raiders four consecutive years, so I used the statistics from their first four years with the team. The first three years and the first two years of McFadden and Heyward-Bey are listed, respectively.

We can make several observations from this limited model.

1. Art Powell ranks above Wells and the current players if we look at the first two years as Oakland Raiders in the yards per game (y/g) category.

2. Warren Wells ranks above Powell and the current players if we look at the first two years as Oakland Raiders in the yards per reception (y/r) category.

3. Powell and Wells had very high efficiency levels when compared to the current players. They hit the ground running. They adjusted to the team very quickly. It didn't take three or four years for them to be effective and efficient.

4. It is imperative that McFadden and Hayward-Bey have dramatic increases in their efficiency and effectiveness in 2011. 

5. In the categories selected in this limited model, we observe the following overall ranks:

		Art Powell		Warren Wells		Darren McFadden			Heyward-Bey
	y/r	2		1		4			3
	y/g	1		2		3			4
	ysrim	1		3		2			4
	td	1		2		3			4
	lng	2		1		3			4
		1.4		1.8		3			3.8
Overall Rank		1		2		3			4

Finally, if we use percentages to determine how far McFadden and Heyward-Bey are from Powell and Wells' output level, we can say that they need to roughly double their statistics if they want to stack up. Here are a few numbers:

Long during first two years of career with Oakland
Powell	Wells	McFadden	Heyward-Bey
85	50	27	24		27/85	31.76 percent of top player's performance, Art Powell
77	94	48	69		69/94	73.4 percent of top player's performance,  Warren Wells
81	72	37.5	46.5		56 percent of top player's performance Art Powell
1	2	4	3

There is evidence in this limited model that the young Oakland Raiders need to at least double their efficiency and effectiveness to meet the standard established by former Oakland Raiders.