2011 NFL Draft: "You, the Fans, Are on the Clock"

Please Note: The following article was written prior to the 2011 NFL Draft's First Round on Thursday, April 28th.  The first three picks in the draft were:

1. Auburn quarterback Cameron Newton to Carolina

2. Texas A & M linebacker Von Miller to Denver 

3. Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus to Buffalo.

To see how some of the NFL's most respected prognosticators fared with the top three, please continue reading the column below.

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Okay.  Draft Weekend is finally here and the clock is ticking down to Round One.  As you read this, you are either on the job or playing hooky.  Either way, you have set aside most things on your schedule for one singular event. 

It is an event that you have waited months for and throughout the day, you will stop what you are doing to see if your team has made a trade to move up or down in the draft order.  The scrolls at the bottom of your break room's television monitor are good for that. 

You may run to your car to take a quick listen to sports radio.  Or, you may just give in entirely to your attention deficit and race incessantly through twitter messages from National Football League experts. 

You know you shouldn't go there, because these so-called gurus change opinions more than you change your underwear.  But you do it anyway. 

It's all in a day's work, but this day is like no other.  It represents the unofficial start of the NFL season and you are foaming at the mouth to find out whose names will be selected in tonight's first round. 

As former Buffalo Bills General Manager Tom Donohoe once said about the the success rate of potential picks, "You don't know.  You might think you know.  But you just don't know."  Tell us about it! 

As a person who has spent an inordinate amount of time on this subject, you think that you have it all figured out.  Since the NFL's Combine in late February, you have gathered every piece of information that you could get your hands or eyes on and your head is spinning.  You actually cannot wait until this day is over. 

But some things are clear.  You are not an expert.  You are not a writer or a blogger.  You are not on the air at a sports radio or television station.  But you are one of the most important things that make the NFL tick, even though the league has locked out every Tom, Dick and Harry that plays the game that you love.

You are a Pro Football FAN and you, my friend, are on the clock.

We will simplify things this afternoon and focus on the top three picks of tonight's prime time draft at Radio City Music Hall.  Your job is easy.  You read the rest of this article, find out what some of the infamous gurus are saying and decide for yourself who it's going to be at one, two and three. 

Remember, the draft continues Friday evening and closes out with the final rounds on Saturday.  The current teams in positions one through three do not necessarily have to play a part in your decision, because the uncertainty of this draft is high. 

With as many as eight teams thinking seriously about taking a quarterback in the first round, anything can happen, including trade downs by any or all of the current teams at the top, which happen to be Carolina, Denver and Buffalo.  In fact, trade-downs and trade-ups are inevitable in most drafts.

To help confuse you a bit more or to change your mind outright, here is the latest reports coming from various sports media sources.

According to the king of all draft gurus, ESPN's Mel Kiper is reporting that Auburn's Cameron Newton will be Carolina's choice at No. 1 overall.  But the second pick on his "Final NFL Mock Draft 5.0" may be the biggest surprise. 

Over the past couple of months, the consensus has been that the Denver Broncos are enamored with Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus.  But suddenly, it appears that Texas A & M linebacker and heat-seeking missile Von Miller is on their radar. 

Miller, who actually played defensive end with the Aggies, will be converted to outside linebacker, no matter which team selects him because his size and weight projects to standing upright on the outside, as opposed to having his hand in the dirt.

With Newton and Miller gone, Buffalo's pick is a simple one, unless the Bills decide to accumulate more picks by trading down.  The majority of experts have harped that Buffalo's draft board looks like this: Newton, Miller and Dareus. 

Kiper concurs and has Buffalo staying put to add Dareus to their weak defensive line.  Coaches, players and fans of the team should be ecstatic with the choice because many believe Dareus has the talent to go No. 1 if the Panthers would take him.

Then again, the Bills are, well, the Bills.  Year in and year out, you never know what they are going to come up with.  And when it comes to the first round, their choices often send shock-waves across the your living rooms across the country. 

This writer's Extra Bold Prediction:  Buffalo goes out on the proverbial limb and  takes perhaps the top playmaker in this year's draft, A. J. Green, Wide Receiver, Georgia. 

Of course, the Bills claimed Clemson's C.J. Spiller last year, so why not Green this year?  At least one initial in their first names is different, right? 

ESPN's not-so-popular prognosticator, Todd McShay, apparently has decided to agree with Kiper, which is a news event in itself. 

McShay couples as the director of college scouting for Scout.com, a network of more than 200 web sites that publish exclusive content about the NFL, MLB, College, High School and other pro sports teams. 

Sounds impressive, but McShay has had his share of "pie in the face" moments.  If you recall, he stuck his neck out prior to the 2007 draft, when he predicted that JaMarcus Russell would be the second coming of a two-time Super Bowl champion quarterback who is now enshrined in the Hall of Fame. 

McShay was correct with his opinion that Russell would go first overall to Oakland, but he failed miserably with his bold prediction of greatness for the former LSU star. 

In describing Russell, McShay said, "He is going to immediately energize the Raiders fanbase: on the practice field and in that locker room. Three years from now you could be looking at a guy that's certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league.  You're talking about a 2-3 year period once he's under center. Look out, because the skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like."

Ugh.  Or shall I say Ugly.  And I digress.  Although it sounds crazy, McShay deserves credit for one thing.  In the years since, he has come to his senses.  Last year, he adamantly opposed Kiper, who made a fool out of himself by predicting that Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen would be be selected within the draft's top 10. 

McShay questioned Clausen's maturity and said that if the Bills passed on him with the ninth pick overall, he would drop like a rock.  Clausen dropped all right, all the way to the 16th pick of the second round and 48th overall.

So, when it comes to Kiper and McShay, their latest draft orders at the top are Newton, Miller and Dareus,  But that could change in the next couple of hours, when they suit up to take the air on ESPN. 

I say that because just a couple of days ago, they predicted a Carolina surprise.  To view who they thought (at the time) had catapulted Newton, click on the following link: http://espn.go.com/nfl/hot?id=6431969.

Other web sites have their final theories out there for the World Wide Web to see and here they are: 

FoxSports.com's Adam Kaplan has stuck through thick and thin with the consensus top this since the combine.  He believes that Newton is a no-brainer for Carolina and has predicted him at No. 1 through five consecutive FoxSports Mock Drafts.

Kaplan says Denver will take no time to select Dareus at No. 2 and suggests that Buffalo will happily take Miller with the third overall pick.  

Kaplan believes the Bills organization has had its sights set on Miller all along, because he would add lightning speed to the team's pass rush and scare the hell out of opposing quarterbacks.  Buffalo has also been desperate to add a playmaker to that side of the ball for years.

Kaplan's colleague at FoxSports.com's is Jay Glazer and he agrees with Cam Newton at the top.  Glazer believes that Carolina truly has no choice but to take Newton, who scored 50 total touchdowns by himself last year, while winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Auburn to the BCS title. 

In contrast, Carolina totaled a minuscule nine passing touchdowns and just 14 offensive scores in all of 2010.  

Glazer calls Newton a "game changer" and predicts that he will don Carolina's colors in 2011.  But he differs with Kaplan on the next two picks. 

Glazer believes that Denver will snatch Miller at two to add speed to their pass rush, where he will couple with defensive end Elvis Dumervil, who is looking forward to a return to duty, after missing the entire 2010 season with a torn pectoral muscle in his chest.

Maybe Glazer is on to something here with Miller to the Broncos.  But his third choice would be an absolute given if Newton and Miller are gone.  "With the third overall choice," he says. "The Buffalo Bills will select Marcell Dareus, defensive tackle, Alabama."

At 3:45 pm EST, ESPN's Sal Paolantonio reported live that Carolina's draft board is shaping up as Newton at one.  But he says that if the Panthers have a late change of heart, they will consider Dareus, LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson or Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green, in that order. 

In his report, Paolantonio said that Carolina "likes Cam Newton because of his competitive drive."  He also says that, according to Panthers new head coach Ron Rivera, "all the questions about Cam's off-the-field issues have been answered." 

And with confirmation that the NFL will allow players to report to team facilities next Friday to work out, talk to coaches and pick up playbooks, "it makes more and more sense that Carolina will take Newton because they can get a hold of him earlier and incorporate him into the Panthers' offense," said Paolantonio.    

Interestingly enough, CBSSports.com's Rob Rang and Chad Reuter oppose each other.  Rang's final mock is identical to Kiper's and McShay's.  Are we seeing a pattern here?  Reuters, on the other hand, is one of the few that has the draft's two top-rated quarterbacks coming off the board. 

He agrees that Newton is as good as gone to the Panthers, but Reuter sees Dareus going No. 2 to the Broncos and Missouri's Blaine Gabbert making his new home in snowy Buffalo. 

As a matter of fact, Sports Illustrated's Don Banks agrees with Reuter.  He too has Newton, Dareus and Gabbert at one, two and three to those particular teams. 

Meanwhile, NFL Network's crew of experts used all of their experts to do a video mock draft with each person taking turns to choose draft picks from No. 1 to No. 32.  At the top of their mock, it went like this: 

Michael Irvin: Cam Newton

Brian Billick: Marcell Dareus

Rich Eisen: Von Miller

Super guru and former NFL defensive back Mike Mayock directed the proceedings and let it be known that his order is official.  He is flip-flopping the two-three choices of his pals to settle on Newton to Carolina, Miller to Denver and Dareus to Buffalo.

Mayock's analysis is intriguing because his direct competition, former NFL Networker and current ESPNer, Adam Schefter, is predicting the very same thing.  Just last night, Schefter was quoted as saying that Denver's staff has decided that Von Miller is their guy.

Coincidentally, Schefter spent a number of years in Denver covering the Broncos, prior to his gigs on television.  So, if he says the Broncos are taking Miller, it could be a lock. 

With all of this late-breaking information, it is difficult to decipher who is correct with the top three picks.  But this writer is sticking to his guns. 

I believe the draft will have drama from the get go, with the Panthers, Broncos and Bills all glued to their phones in consideration of trade offers from teams looking to move up to draft a quarterback. 

If Carolina does not take the bait, I guarantee you that Denver or Buffalo will.  The Panthers and Bills are obviously tempted to draft a potential franchise signal caller and a possible "Face of the Franchise" to sell seats and merchandise. 

But with Stanford's Andrew Luck and USC's Matt Barkley waiting in the wings to turn pro next year, both teams could seize the opportunity this year to improve their quarterback chances in 2012. 

I have said all along that these teams should consider loading up on ammunition to take a stab at Luck or Barkley in 2012.  And by trading down they could "killl two birds with one stone."   

Both teams would still get a highly skilled player in this year's first round and could conceivably demand a 2012 first-round selection from their trade partner.  

It seems like a lot to give up, but with as many as eight teams desperate for a franchise field general, it may be a price they will have to pay.    

Denver also could fare quite well with a trade-down scenario.  With the league's worst overall defense, the Broncos need as many picks as possible to have a chance to improve. 

There is little doubt that one or more of the top three teams could turn the NFL's evening upside down in the draft's first half hour.  It will be a joy to watch and at 8 pm EST sharp, it will be out of your control, my dear fan. 

So, take a deep breath and take it all in, with an open mind.  And most importantly, have a great time!