NFL Mock Draft: The Most Inaccurate Predictions in All of Sports
It's time for the annual NFL Mock Draft article cavalcade, where football experts predict the draft because frankly, they are bored. It's not like writers get hired and fired because they had Earl Thomas going to the Seahawks at No. 14 last year. Consensus of writers is also fun to watch as almost every expert had Reggie Bush going to the Texans in 2006, every expert except the Texans themselves.
This draft has a different feel because of the ongoing labor strife, and the recent ruling by a judge in favor of the players. The ruling may help to possibly change the business model of the NFL. Realistically it's about time, since the players are the people that consumers pay to see. Players are the people who take the majority of the risk and put life and limb on the line. Players sell the merchandise. This ruling may help show the owners that the league is about the players, and the NFL Draft is all about the college athletes having their day of glory.
I guarantee that my predictions are all correct, because unlike the professional writers, I take the focus away from the athletes and look at the lesser part of the equation, the owners and teams. The picks may look ridiculous, but you will soon find out why.
MOCK DRAFT 2011
1. Carolina - Carolina has two things going for it that make this pick very interesting. One, they are in the NFC South, and every NFC South cellar dweller incredibly win a lot more games the next year. Two, as of now, they have the most difficult schedule in the NFL, mostly because they play a lot of teams that beat Carolina last year. If they really want Andrew Luck, the path is there to get it. This is a team that drafted Jimmy Clausen last year, and didn't have a No. 1 pick because they traded it for a backup DE and backup RB. If Carolina picks a QB, they are basically throwing away a second-round pick from last year. Then again they threw away a second-round pick this year also. I think they tank it.
CAROLINA PICKS MARCELL DAREUS - DT
2. Denver - Last year, Denver decided to make about 20 trades in the first round, and the picks they traded away ended up being Brandon Graham, Aaron Hernandez, Dez Bryant, Ed Dickson. They did get Eric Decker and Tim Tebow out of it. From a team that also traded away Peyton Hillis for Brady Quinn and in 2009 traded picks that equaled Mike Wallace and Johnny Knox, I suspect the Broncos will trade this pick, and it will be a bad trade. Josh McDaniels might have stunk, but somebody hired him.
MINNESOTA TRADES WITH DENVER AND SELECTS CAM NEWTON - QB
Why Minnesota you ask? Somebody is going to overpay to get Newton, and it makes sense for a team with no QB and in desperate need of one to make an impact to do so. Plus, right now the Vikings need to save the franchise in Minnesota. Cam feels like a perfect dome QB, and if the Metrodome gets fixed, things may work out nicely.
3. Buffalo - Yuck. I have to predict what the cryptkeeper is going to do. All I know is that the team that picked CJ Spiller, Eric Wood, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Marshawn Lynch, Donte Whitner, Lee Evans, Willis McGahee, JP Losman and Mike Williams with their first-round picks since 2002 will either stink or be good for a different team. So which player is most likely sentenced to misery and awful leadership?
BUFFALO SELECTS NICK FAIRLEY - DT
4. Cincinnati - Some here may look at this as the perfect opportunity to get Blaine Gabbert, a potential franchise QB to replace Carson Palmer. This is the Bengals we are talking about. Marvin Lewis is still the head coach, and Palmer is desperate to flee, meaning he will come back and be tortured by another receiver who needs the ball a lot. Mike Brown isn't spending QB money, even with a new agreement.
CINCINNATI SELECTS AJ GREEN - WR
5. Arizona - Kurt Warner hid the fact that for the most part, the Cardinals have been a terribly run franchise, and he was an afterthought. Arizona looks to be the perfect spot for Blaine Gabbert, since right now they are discussing Marc Bulger. In 2011. However, the Bidwells get an offer they can't refuse, and would rather not spend a high pick on a QB since the Matt Leinart burn still lingers.
HOUSTON TRADES WITH ARIZONA AND SELECTS PATRICK PATTERSON - CB
If anyone saw Houston last year, you know why they would do this.
6. Cleveland - It's tough to predict what a franchise will do considering the new Browns haven't won a playoff game. The Manginius era didn't work, although they look to have some pieces in place to improve. With a rookie coach and a franchise that has shown little success, they take the best player and continue to watch Colt McCoy develop.
CLEVELAND SELECTS VON MILLER - OLB
7. San Francisco - The 49ers couldn't win the easiest division ever to win last year, and are such a mess that Alex Smith looks to be the returning starter, until luck strikes. Not Andrew Luck, I'm not sure the 49ers in the NFC West could ever tank that badly. They get their replacement for Smith.
SAN FRANCISCO SELECTS BLAINE GABBERT - QB
8. Tennessee - Once again, I get to predict what an old insane former AFL owner is going to do. I guess they pick an offensive lineman to protect their star RB. It's not like they have a star QB to protect. Teams like Tennessee don't follow logic.
TENNESSEE SELECTS TYRON SMITH - OT
9. Dallas - I sense a trend here. Notice how I haven't listed the Giants or Atlanta or Seattle or Chicago yet. I've had to analyze picks that are going to be partially made or influenced by Ralph Wilson, Mike Brown, Bill Bidwell, Randy Lerner and Jerry Jones. Even they don't know who would make their team successful. How am I? Jerry's two offensive stars are Tony Romo and Miles Austin, free agents.
DALLAS SELECTS ANTHONY COSTANZO - OT
10. Washington - I can easily guess what a Daniel Snyder led team is going to do. I think Washington is ticked at Minnesota for beating them in the Cam Newton trade, so they look around and try to figure out what QB to pick. Then when they look ready to pick Jake Locker, since they like the idea of him playing for the same university and pro team (Geography is not a Redskins war room strong point), they realize Robert Quinn is still there and pick him, because ESPN had him going way earlier.
WASHINGTON SELECTS ROBERT QUINN - DE
11. Houston - Houston traded away this pick, mostly because they are stealth in how poorly run they are. Every year Houston is the tease ready to make the leap, and every year they disappoint because of bad coaching or bad portions of the team. Houston needs a lot of depth and talent on defense. They get some talent, but trade away a lot to do so. Arizona is happy as they get extra picks and also take a corner.
ARIZONA SELECTS PRINCE AMUKAMARA - CB
12. Minnesota - They beat Washington to the punch and traded for Newton. In the process, they save some face with their fans who remember the NFC Championship heartbreak and a broken dome. I'm not sure Zygi Wilf is a bad owner, but anything the franchise is hanging on pins and needles for survival in a city (especially with LA ready to build), it's not great.
DENVER SELECTS CAMERON JORDAN - DE
After No. 12, I'll probably be watching the NBA Playoffs so I'll just read up on what happens, and any predictions I make can't be as strange as the ones above. I do want to highlight who picks next though.
13. - Detroit - Owner William Clay Ford and a track record of incredible non-success.
14. - St Louis - Got a new owner last year, so too new to judge.
15. - Miami - Owner Stephen Ross and special guests J-Lo, Fergie and the Williams Sisters. When a team is seeking to gain a buzz by getting celebrity owners, I'm not so sure football operations are focus No. 1.
No. 16. Jacksonville - Not a bad owner as much as it is a bad situation in bad economic times. The fans did come back some, and if the agreement stays similar then Jacksonville has a shot. Otherwise they will be fighting for LA.
No. 17 - New England via trade from Oakland - The Al Davis-owned team did better than 16 teams last year. The Raiders can celebrate their mild success by partying in Manhattan on Thursday night. Forget the draft.
No. 18 - San Diego - Philip Rivers really saves San Diego from looking worse, and you know a team is really focused on the Super Bowl when the owner's main goal is to move. Norv Turner is still the head coach. That's not an owner focused on fan satisfaction.
Maybe the NFL is an owner's league after all.
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