2011 NHL Playoffs: Ranking Each Remaining Team's Odds of Winning the Stanley Cup
Some teams are still battling through their conference quarterfinals series, but the road has come to an end for three others.
The Anaheim Ducks, New York Rangers and Phoenix Coyotes have been sent packing in recent days.
As of right now, there are 13 teams left in the Stanley Cup playoffs. There are five spots remaining for conference semifinals matchups.
The road to the Stanley Cup is a competitive one, but only one team can remain standing. It takes a variety of factors such as high scoring talent, a confident goaltender and sometimes, just plain dumb luck.
Here are the remaining teams in the playoffs and their likelihood of taking home the big prize. The team ranked No. 13 is least likely to win, while obviously, the team in the top spot is most likely to win right now.
13. Los Angeles Kings
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Last year, the Kings made it into the playoffs for the first time since 2002, but they were eliminated by the Vancouver Canucks.
This year, they are playing the San Jose Sharks in the Western Conference Quarterfinals and are currently behind three games to two.
The Kings' Cup hopes were dealt a huge blow when leading scorer Anze Kopitar, who finished the regular season with 73 points, went down with an ankle injury. He is done for the season.
Los Angeles' offense was left to be led by Justin Williams and Dustin Brown, who had 57 points apiece.
The team is scoring more goals per game in the playoffs (3.40) than they did during the regular season (2.55). However, they are giving up more goals (3.20) than they surrendered before the playoffs (2.55). Also, starting goaltender Jonathan Quick's GAA has dipped from 2.24 to 3.02.
The loss of Kopitar will be too much to make up, and the Kings will once again have to keep their heads up for next year.
Prediction: Highly unlikely
12. Nashville Predators
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On Sunday night, the Nashville Predators advanced to the second round of the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. They defeated the Anaheim Ducks in six games, which was shocking to many in the NHL world.
Anaheim boasted offensive firepower such as Rocket Richard winner Corey Perry, who had 50 goals in the regular season. They also had veterans such as Teemu Selanne and Francois Beauchemin, who were a part of the 2007 Stanley Cup championship team.
Vezina finalist Pekka Rinne is 3-2 in the playoffs, but he has a high save percentage (.865) and GAA (3.57).
The Predators also only had two 50-point scorers this season. Martin Erat and Sergei Kostitsyn each finished with 50 points, and Patric Hornqvist was the only player besides Kostistyn to tally more than 20 goals.
Nashville has scored more goals per game in the playoffs (3.60), but they are also surrendering more (3.60).
It feels great to see Nashville finally climb over the playoff hump, but Rinne's inexperience and lack of a top scorer will do the Predators in at some point.
Prediction: Highly unlikely
11. Tampa Bay Lightning
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Tampa regained some confidence in their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series with the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sautrday, thumping the Penguins by a score of 8-2.
They are led by Martin St. Louis, who had 99 points in the regular season and currently leads the team with eight points in the postseason. St. Louis was one of four Bolts players with at least 50 points this season.
Tampa's defense was an issue before the playoffs. Brett Clark led defensemen in scoring with just 31 points, and Steve Downie had the team high plus/minus rating of plus-eight. They were surrendering 2.85 goals per game, which was ranked 21st in the NHL.
However, they have fixed that a little for the playoffs by giving up 2.40 goals per game, ranked seventh among playoff teams.
Dwayne Roloson had a losing record in the regular season, partially because he started the season on the New York Islanders. However, he turned things around once arriving in Florida and was able to finish 24-25-5 with a .914 save percentage and 2.59 GAA. He also posted four shutouts on his new team.
He has been solid in the playoffs. Although he is 2-3, his save percentage (.942) and GAA (2.06) are nothing to scoff out.
Tampa's special teams are also tops among postseason participants. They have a 36.4 percent power play rate (first) and a 96 percent penalty kill rate (second).
They are doing a lot of things right, but this is their first playoff run in four years, and teams coming back in after such a long drought rarely go far. It's also not likely they upset the Penguins. Even if they do, the other Eastern teams will be too much of a hurdle.
Prediction: Somewhat unlikely
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10. Pittsburgh Penguins
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It's safe to say the Penguins playoff hopes officially took a nosedive in February, when Evgeni Malkin went down for the season with a torn ACL and MCL.
The team had already been without Sidney Crosby since he suffered a concussion in January, and he still has not returned to game action.
The Penguins could not seem to make up for Crosby's absence. In fact, despite his lengthy layoff, he is still tops in scoring and plus/minus.
Kris Letang finished second on the Penguins with 50 points in the regular season, and Chris Kunitz was just behind him with 48 points. Kunitz's plus/minus of plus-18 was second best on the team.
Letang and Arron Asham are tied for four points each in the playoffs, and Asham has three goals.
Pittsburgh has scored less goals in the playoffs (2.78 in the regular season and 2.40 in the playoffs) and is also giving up more goals (2.39 in the regular season and 3.40 in the playoffs).
Their special teams have also taken a nosedive. Their power play is succeeding at just a four percent rate, and their penalty kill is ranked dead last at 63.6 percent.
Marc-Andre Fleury has put up good numbers (3-2 with one shutout, a .903 save percentage and 2.50 GAA), but there is only so much he can do. He can't score goals, and he can't provide enough help on special teams.
Pittsburgh will likely get past the Lightning, but don't expect them to go much further after that.
Prediction: Not likely
9. Buffalo Sabres
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Buffalo has been lucky in the last two games of their quarterfinals series with the Philadelphia Flyers.
In Game 5, they were up 3-0 and blew the lead, but they managed to win the game 4-3 to go up in the series.
Today, they blew another lead and got fortunate when the game went to overtime. However, they could not quite put away the Flyers, who won 5-4. Game 7 is on Tuesday in Philadelphia.
Defenseman Marc-Andre Gragnani leads the Sabres with five points on the postseason. Jason Pominville is behind with four points, but he is currently out of the lineup with an injury. Veteran Rob Niedermayer also has four points.
Thomas Vanek finished the season as the team's leading scorer with 73 points. He was one of four players who posted at least 50 points this year.
Tyler Myers took a step back from his Calder Trophy winning season last year, but his 37 points still led Sabres' defensemen in scoring.
Ryan Miller now has big game experience under his belt from the 2010 Olympics, and it is coming through in the playoffs. He is 3-2 and first in the NHL with two shutouts to go with a .933 save percentage (fifth among postseason goaltenders) and a 2.18 GAA (also ranked fifth).
The Sabres have the talent for a long playoff run. However, if they keep dropping leads like they are doing against Philadelphia, they will not last long.
Prediction: Slight chance
8. Vancouver Canucks
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Vancouver has a lot of great talent on their team. Daniel Sedin, who will take the Art Ross from brother Henrik this year, finished the season with 104 points.
The Canucks also have five players with at least 50 points and scored the most goals in the NHL during the regular season, averaging 3.15 goals per game. In addition, they had the top ranked power play, scoring on 24.3 percent of their man advantages.
They were also first in goals against per game, giving up just 2.20 per game against their opponents.
Roberto Luongo was first in the NHL in wins with 38. He was fourth in save percentage (.928) and second in GAA (2.11). His performance earned him a Vezina Trophy nominee, and he is a finalist for the award.
However, his playoff performance is anything but stellar. He has a .885 save percentage and 3.67 GAA and was already pulled once in favor of Cory Schneider. He was also benched on Sunday and only got to come in because Schneider was injured after giving up a penalty shot goal to Michael Frolik.
As of this writing, there is no word on Schneider's injury.
The Canucks are in danger of embarrassing themselves right out of the postseason. They went up 3-0 in the series, which included taking a win at United Center. However, Chicago has regained their confidence and just forced a Game 7 on a Ben Smith overtime goal.
Much like Buffalo, Vancouver has the talent. But until they can push themselves past the Blackhawks and become strong playoff performers, they will not see the Stanley Cup.
Prediction: Slight chance.
7. Boston Bruins
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The Boston Bruins are looking to improve on last year's embarrassing exit out of the playoffs, where they dropped a 3-0 series lead to the Flyers and lost in seven games.
So far, they have a one game lead over Montreal and could eliminate their bitter rivals on Tuesday night.
Nathan Horton is in the postseason for the first time in his career after being stuck with the Florida Panthers for several years. He finished the regular season with 53 points and scored the game winning overtime goal in Saturday's game. He has two goals in five postseason games.
On defense, the Bruins finished second in the regular season with 2.30 goals against per game, and they are only giving up a little more than that in the playoffs with a 2.40 average per game. Patrice Bergeron, who is also leading Boston in postseason scoring with six points, has a team high plus-four rating.
Goaltender Tim Thomas, who is the third Vezina finalist in this list, continues to be strong in the playoffs. His 3-2 record with a .927 save percentage and 2.19 GAA follows a regular season where he went 35-11-9 with a .938 save percentage and 2.00 GAA. He was also second with nine shutouts.
There are some downsides for the Bruins this postseason, though.
They have yet to score a power play goal and are ranked last in that category. They are also scoring less goals per game (2.40) than they did during the season (2.98).
The Bruins will probably not get the Canadiens to go away easily in their series. Boston is a good team, but not great.
Prediction: Somewhat likely, but not a heavy favorite.
6. Montreal Canadiens
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Michael Cammalleri, one of the standout players in last year's Cinderella playoff run, is proving himself to be a key player once again.
His seven points this postseason leads the team, and he is one of three players who have scored two goals for the Canadiens. Brian Gionta and Andrei Kostitsyn are the other two.
Tomas Plekanec was the team's leading scorer this year with 57 points, but leading defensive scorer James Wisniewski was the only other 50-point scorer, finishing with 51 points.
In goal, Carey Price has proven himself ready for full-time starting goaltender duty.
He had his first full regular season of starting work and responded by going 38-28-6 with eight shutouts. He was first in the NHL in wins and third in shutouts. His .923 save percentage was ranked seventh, while his 2.35 GAA was 10th.
Although he is 2-3 in the playoffs, his save percentage (.938) and GAA (2.00) are tops among postseason goaltenders. His save percentage is ranked fourth ,and he is third in GAA.
The Habs have yet to give up a power play goal to the Bruins.
On defense, Jaroslav Spacek had a plus-nine rating to lead Montreal in the regular season. Despite the low plus/minus rating, the team is giving up less playoff goals (2.40) than they did during the year (2.51). Their 2.51 goals against was still eighth in the league, however.
Montreal is not to be overlooked. They can roll with the Bruins, and should they advance, they will play close with any team they face. They can only improve upon last year's run.
Prediction: Better than good chance. They can easily make the conference finals again.
5. Philadelphia Flyers
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Philadelphia is pretty strong in almost every area.
They were third in the NHL in the regular season with an average of 3.12 goals per game.
Matt Carle and Andrej Meszaros led the team with plus-30 ratings, and Carle also had 40 points to lead all Flyers defensemen.
However, one thing will hold the Flyers from taking the Stanley Cup home: goaltending.
The Flyers have already used three different goaltenders in the playoffs while other postseason teams have put their trust in one goaltender.
Sergei Bobrovsky had a good rookie campaign, going 28-13-8 with a .915 save percentage and 2.59 GAA. But in the playoffs, he had a bad game and finished with a .875 save percentage and 3.38 GAA. He has been on the bench since.
Brian Boucher also did well during the season, going 18-10-4 with a .916 save percentage and 2.42 GAA. He has done the best in the postseason of Philadelphia's netminders with a record of 2-1 with a .929 save percentage and 2.32 GAA.
But on Sunday, Peter Laviolette went with Michael Leighton. Leighton was only in his second start since December and had not yet gotten into a playoff game. He was pulled after allowing three goals in the first period.
Philadelphia is once again getting a strong postseason performance from Daniel Briere, who has three goals so far. Claude Giroux, who led the Flyers with 76 points this year, is in front again with five points on the postseason.
However, Laviolette needs to find a goaltender and stick with him. Based solely on stats, it should be Boucher, but will it happen?
If the Flyers do not settle with a netminder, they will be leaving the playoffs as an upset victim of a team on an unstoppable run.
Prediction: Good chance.
4. Chicago Blackhawks
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The Blackhawks are the defending Stanley Cup champion, but this year, they backed into the playoffs as the eighth seed.
At first, they looked to be fodder for the President's Trophy winner Canucks, but they have fought their way back into the series and will play Game 7 on Tuesday night.
Chicago scored the fourth most goals per game in the regular season (3.07) and are scoring even more through the playoffs to date (3.40). They are also giving up less goals (2.68 to 2.20) and have an improved power play (23.1 percent during the season and 26.1 percent during the playoffs).
Marty Turco, a 10-year veteran who played mostly with the Dallas Stars with his career, was brought in this year to back up Corey Crawford. But Turco faltered early, and Crawford has taken the reigns.
Crawford finished the season with a record of 33-18-6 with four shutouts while posting a .917 save percentage and 2.30 GAA (ranked eighth in the league). Going into Sunday's game, he was eighth among postseason goaltenders with a .924 save percentage and seventh with a 2.24 GAA.
Duncan Keith is returning to form, leading the Hawks with six points in the postseason. Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp are not far behind with five points apiece.
Chicago has kicked things up a notch in the playoffs, and they have a ton of self confidence. Unfortunately, so have many lower seeds who have come before them. Confidence has gotten teams very far, but it will not be enough.
Prediction: Likely to make a deep run.
3. San Jose Sharks
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The Sharks managed to somewhat shed their choker label last year, when they made it to the Western Conference Finals. However, they lost to the Blackhawks in five games.
San Jose is once again back in the playoffs, and there is no doubt they learned a big lesson from last year's run.
They have added goaltender Antti Niemi, who was the netminder in Chicago's Stanley Cup championship last year. Niemi went 35-18-6 in the regular season and finished sixth with six shutouts. He also had a .920 save percentage and 2.38 GAA.
Unfortunately, he is faltering in the playoffs. He has a record of 2-2 with a .855 save percentage and 4.30 GAA. He has already been pulled once from a game.
Antero Nittymaki has filled in fine when needed, though. He went 12-7-3 in the regular season with a .896 save percentage and 2.72 GAA. When he replaced Niemi in the playoffs, he had a .967 save percentage and 0.66 GAA.
San Jose was led on offense by Patrick Marleau, who finished with 73 points. Ryane Clowe is the leading postseason scorer so far, having put up four goals and seven points through five games.
On defense, Dan Boyle, another previous Cup winner, had 50 points. Jason Demers had a team high plus-19 during the season.
Ian White has five points through the playoffs, while Kyle Wellwood has a plus-four rating.
The Sharks' penalty kill has improved from the regular season. It is currently ranked seventh at 85 percent after ending the regular season at 79.6 percent (24th in the NHL).
Niemi will need to tap into his experience from last year to carry the Sharks far, and veterans such as Marleau and Thornton cannot be invisible again.
Prediction: Will make a deep run, but will probably underachieve again.
2. Washington Capitals
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The Capitals have been known as playoff underperformers in recent years, but this may be the season where they truly make a playoff name for themselves.
Alexander Ovechkin did not have his best regular season by a long shot, finishing with just 85 points. However, he has become better defensively, posting a plus-24 in the regular season. His plus/minus rating is tied with fellow forward Nicklas Backstrom.
Mike Green is also having a good postseason and had five points in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals as the Capitals finished off the New York Rangers. Jeff Schultz is leading the Caps with a plus-five rating to start the playoffs.
Washington has given up the least goals of any playoff team, with an average of just 1.60 per game. They were also in the top five in goals against during the regular season with a 2.33 average.
Michal Neuvirth has become the Caps' starting goaltender after injury problems ailed Semyon Varlamov. Neuvirth was 27-12-4 with four shutouts in the regular season to go with a .914 save percentage and 2.45 GAA.
He has been a rock in the playoffs and is first with four playoff wins. He is second in both save percentage (.946) and GAA (1.38).
The Caps have also improved on special teams from the regular season to the postseason. Their 17.5 percent power play during the regular season is now successful at an 18.8 percent rate. In addition, they have killed off 95 percent of their penalties and sit in third in the NHL.
This is the year the Capitals will finally get beyond the early rounds.
Prediction: Winners of the Eastern Conference
1. Detroit Red Wings
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The Capitals will come out of the Eastern Conference, but like many teams before them, their inexperience will be a downfall to the powerful Red Wings.
Henrik Zetterberg missed the Wings' quarterfinals series with an injury, but is likely to be ready by the time the semifinals begin. He was the leading scorer with 80 points during the regular season.
In Zetterberg's absence, Pavel Datsyuk has picked up the scoring load and has six points. Datsyuk and Tomas Holstrom have two goals apiece in the postseason. Detroit is also scoring the most goals per game among postseason teams with a 4.50 average.
Niklas Kronnwall had an improved regular season with 37 points, and he is leading Detroit defensemen in the playoffs with three points. His plus-six rating is tied with Datsyuk for the team lead.
In goal, Jimmy Howard is tied with Michal Neuvirth for four playoff wins. He has a .915 save percentage, and his 2.50 GAA is ranked 10th.
During the year, Howard was third in the league in wins with 37 and had a .908 save percentage and 2.79 GAA, so he has also seen an improvement in his numbers in the early stages of the postseason.
The Wings have improved on their fifth ranked power play, which worked at a 22.3 percent success rate. They are again fifth in the postseason on the man advantage, but they have scored on 26.7 percent of their power plays.
This will also come down to a coaching battle. Mike Babcock has done everything that Bruce Boudreau has not, and there isn't even an argument as to who is the better coach.
Prediction: 2011 Stanley Cup Champions
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