MLB Predictions: 5 Pitchers Whose Hot Starts Will Come Crashing Down

Harang, Chen, Harrison...not exactly names that come to mind when we think of aces but if the Cy Young voting occurred right now these guys would be far ahead of the likes of Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez and Francisco Liriano.

Unexpected hot starts in baseball happen every year, but just like everyone else who's started hot, from Barack Obama to Britney Spears, it's not where you start, but where you finish. 

This young baseball season has seen its fair share of strong starts.  Some were expected (CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay), some I suspect are guys starting to get it (Justin Masterson) and some are guys in the beginnings of special careers (Trevor Cahill).

Then there's a whole other group of guys.  These are pitchers who we know well enough to know what they are.  They're flying high, soaring through the first few weeks of the season, but the crash is inevitable.

More than any other sport, things tend even out in baseball in due time.  Even though the flameout will be harder for some of these guys, they'll all come back to Earth before too long.

Jered Weaver

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ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 10: Jered Weaver #36 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim reacts on the mound as he waits to be relieved in the eighth inning after recording his 15th strikeout against the Toronto Blue Jays on April 10, 2011 at Angel Stadium in Anahe

Don't get me wrong on Jered Weaver.  He's a fine pitcher and probably the guy on this list I'd most want on my team, but come on, he's not this good...is he?

Weaver would be an excellent No. 2.  The way he's pitching now, though, he's in line to be the No. 1 guy on the All-Star team.

Weaver is 4-0 with a 1.30 ERA through the beginning of the season.  In addition, he struck out 15 Blue Jays in a game on April 10th.

Weaver has had success in his career, but only once has he had more than 13 wins.

Hot starts are nothing new to Weaver, who has pitched well the first month of the season.  He's now 9-1 over the last three Aprils.

Weaver will cool down and end up with some pretty decent numbers overall, but don't put much money on him being in the Cy Young conversation when the season ends.

Gio Gonzalez

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OAKLAND, CA - APRIL 3: Gio Gonzalez #47 of the Oakland Athletics pitches against the Seattle Mariners during a MLB baseball game at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum April 3, 2011 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)

Gio Gonzalez is a talented, young pitcher whom I expect to be very effective in his career if he can just find the strike zone.

So far this season, Gonzalez has been Rick Vaughn's "Wild Thing" to the A's.  He has 12 walks over 19 innings pitched this season.  Maybe a set of horn-rimmed glasses and a pep talk from Roger Dorn would help?

Gonzalez's spectacular 0.47 ERA is flanked by his pedestrian 1.26 WHIP, and his wildness is not something new to him.  He's averaged over a walk every other inning during his career.

Unless he suddenly finds the Fountain of Control, there's no way that ERA/WHIP discrepancy won't catch up to him.

Matt Harrison

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NEW YORK, NY - APRIL 15: Matt Harrison of the Texas Rangers pitches against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on April 15, 2011 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Matt Harrison has had a great start to the season.  He's mowed through the Orioles, Yankees and Red Sox to start the year.

Harrison, who was a part-time starter before this season, is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA.  This puts him near the top of the AL in both categories.

In his last start against the Yankees, Harrison induced six double-plays.  That's the most since double-plays have been counted.

That tells me that Harrison is a ground-ball pitcher.  It also tells me he got a little lucky and he put a lot of guys on base that game. 

He's not going to be able to count on double-plays all season.

Bruce Chen

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DETROIT - APRIL 09: Bruce Chen #52 of the Kansas City Royals pitches in the first inning during the game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on April 9, 2011 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

Bruce Chen (yes, that Bruce Chen) is off to a 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA to start this season with the Royals.

Out of any guy on this list, Chen is the pitcher I'm most certain won't keep up his hot start.  He's the definition of a .500 pitcher, as he has 50 wins and 50 loses in his career.

Chen also is the proud owner of a career 1.40 WHIP, which he's spread across 10 teams. 

Ten teams?  Most guys would have quit after a half a dozen.

Like the Royals' torrid start, Chen's, too, will smolder as the season goes on.  If he does stay hot, look for the Royals to deal Chen to his 11th team at the trade deadline.

Aaron Harang

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SAN DIEGO, CA - APRIL 5: Starting Pitcher Aaron Harang #41 of the San Diego Padres throws from the mound against the San Francisco Giants during their MLB Game at Petco Park on April 5, 2011 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Donald Miralle/Getty Images

Aaron Harang's best days are behind him...or so I thought.

The monstrously enormous Harang looks more like an offensive lineman than a pitcher, but for the past three seasons, his pitching has been the most offensive thing about him.

So far in his new home in San Diego, Harang is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP.  In his last three seasons with the Reds, Harang was 18-38, leaving Reds fans to celebrate his departure.

The thing which is most striking about Harang thus far is that he is holding opposing hitters to a .190 batting average—for his career, opponents are hitting .273 against him.

Already with half of his win totals in each of the last three seasons, Harang is looking for his career to do an about-face.

History tells me it won't.