Michael Vick: Where Does He Rank Among 2011's Best Fantasy Football QBs?
There is no doubt Michael Vick had a tremendous fantasy season in 2010. Will it continue into 2011?
Aaron Rodgers won a Super Bowl, Tom Brady continued his strong career and Josh Freeman came on late towards the end of the season. Vick surely had a breakout year last season. He is definitely a top 10 quarterback heading into the 2011 season.
For fantasy scoring, I utilized the ESPN standard rules in which passing TDs are worth four points and interceptions are negative two.
Where does Vick rank amongst the league's elite fantasy quarterbacks?
Michael Vick
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Let's start by taking a look at Vick himself.
He can run and he can throw. The double-threat quarterback is aided by a dynamite wide-receiver corps that includes perennial 50-yard scoring-play threat DeSean Jackson. The Eagles' offense also frequently utilizes running back LeSean McCoy's pass-catching abilities, boosting Vick's value in PPR leagues.
Vick is the only quarterback currently capable of throwing for 200 and running for 100 in every game. But injuries are certainly a concern. An injury against the Redskins last season knocked Vick out of commission for three weeks and seriously hurt both the Eagles and many fantasy team owners' playoff chances.
One final factor in calculating his value is volatility of points from week to week. In the 11 games in which Vick played significant minutes in 2010, he scored at least 18 points. His running game was key when he scored more than 30 points in a week. If his value is to stay high, he must be consistent both on the ground and through the air.
Now in alphabetical order, let's head through the remainder of the top fantasy quarterbacks in 2011.
Tom Brady
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Tom Brady was a model of consistency in 2010, playing all 16 games and averaging just over 18 fantasy points per game.
He never had a huge week, but he also never scored less than 10 points. His fantasy output has been similar over his past few seasons (his 2008 injury season aside) and there is no reason to expect any change in 2011. Despite having a flux of new receivers and tight ends in 2010, Brady managed to make all of them look like veterans. His offensive line remains strong and should continue giving him plenty of time to pass next year.
The Brady owners should have no fear about his 2011 production.
Drew Brees
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Drew Brees had a bit of a down year in 2010, both in the real world and the fantasy world.
He threw for over 4,600 yards and 33 TDs, but also a career high 22 INTs. Fantasy-wise he was still a top-five quarterback, nonetheless. It appears he should still be strong heading into next season. If he cuts down on interceptions, he should jump back up in to the top spot picture.
His running game is non-existent, but averaging nearly 350 passing yards per game makes him a valuable quantity in next year's fantasy drafts.
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Josh Freeman
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A newcomer to the scene last year, Freeman finished a top 10 quarterback, above such luminaries as Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan.
He was very consistent in his first year as a full-time starter as he scored 11 or more points in 15 of the 16 weeks in 2010. Freeman and the Bucs are on the up and up. And another year of experience for Freeman can only help his fantasy value.
Freeman doesn't run at the same rate as Vick yet, but he did gain 364 yards on 68 carries. He did not score on the ground, implying he is not the primary red-zone offensive option. Look for him to find the end zone a few times next year as the team's confidence grows, but remember, he is not yet as dynamic on the ground as Vick.
Peyton Manning
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Another solid year in 2010 for Peyton, but his INT numbers did rise drastically. His TD-to-INT ratio was less than 2-to1, with 33 TDs and 17 INTs.
His 4,700 passing yards was a career high for Manning. Despite the turnstile of different receivers flanking Reggie Wayne, Peyton always seems to find a way to get everyone involved and is rarely phased by less experienced pass catchers.
Though he can't run (like, at all), he is still a top quarterback in the NFL and a very viable fantasy option.
Philip Rivers
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Fantasy owners sure are lucky that the San Diego Chargers have no running game.
Philip Rivers took advantage of the Chargers' offensive imbalance to throw for an NFL high 4,710 yards in 2010. The Chargers look like they'll employ a similar offensive strategy in 2011 and Rivers will look to benefit with duplicate numbers of last season.
The Chargers' offensive line did let Rivers down on occasion, which forced him to throw out of the pocket and resulted in a poorer completion percentage. If they address the problem in the upcoming draft, Rivers could see lower sack numbers and a higher completion percentage next year.
Aaron Rodgers
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Now that Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl ring, maybe now be can focus on his fantasy numbers. Although, it is pretty hard to improve upon last year's totals.
He finished just eight points behind Michael Vick and ran nearly as effectively. Though Rodgers is not the flashy sprinter that Vick is, he is a very good, opportunistic runner. He averaged over 5.5 yards per rush and found the end zone four times in the 2010 season.
His passing numbers were spectacular with 3,900 yards and 28 TDs against only 11 INTs in 2010. He is the quarterback most likely to challenge Vick for the top fantasy quarterback spot in 2011.
Tony Romo
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Quarterbacks returning from injury are the hardest to predict fantasy-wise.
Tony Romo was not in the midst of the his best year before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 7 against the NY Giants.
His 1,600 yards though six games was respectable, but his 11 TDs against seven INTs left something to be desired for fantasy owners. Combined with his inexplicable ability to get himself injured, Romo was something of a wild card that did not pay off in 2010.
If he keeps himself healthy, and safe, he could put up solid numbers next year. However, anything regarding Romo must be taken with a grain of salt as the Cowboys franchise is known for drastic changes. I'm not suggesting he's going to lose his job, but it does look like he might have reached his peak.
Ben Roethlisberger
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Despite leading his team to his third Super Bowl, Ben Roethlisberger was limited in fantasy value due to his four-game suspension to start the 2010 season.
He will most likely not miss any games due to suspension in the upcoming season and should be considered a top quarterback. He threw for 3,200 yards in 12 games with 17 TDs against a mere five INTs.
If he can repeat those numbers expanded over an entire 16-game season, he will be very effective.
Matt Ryan
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Matt Ryan is not a flashy quarterback, he is not a running quarterback, but he is a consistent quarterback.
While Ryan won't put up any explosive numbers on any given Sunday, he is likely to provide around 200 yards and two TDs, week in and week out. A knock on him is his inability to move out of the pocket and pick up yards on the ground; although compared to other immobile quarterbacks, he did average over three yards per scramble.
The main fault with Ryan as a fantasy quarterback is the running game of Atlanta, which is, when effective, the primary means of marching down the field. Ryan can lead big drives late into a game, but is usually more secondary in the offense to Michael Turner and company.
Where Does Vick Rank?
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After going through the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks for 2011, where does Michael Vick rank among them?
10. Tony Romo
9. Matt Ryan
7. Josh Johnson
6. Drew Brees
5. Tom Brady
2. Michael Vick
In Conclusion
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Close to the top, but not quite.
Vick can do it all. But his arm, while strong, is inconsistent. Vick occasionally tries to do too much, resulting in dangerous, high-risk, high-reward passes when much more completable ones are available.
Rodgers had one of the great regular and playoff seasons of any quarterback of all-time. He is incredibly accurate and smart when it comes to passing and scrambling. Rodgers is also a model of health—he knows when to take a sack and when to throw the ball away.
Vick is very, very close, but he needs to show better leadership skills, including passing accuracy, running intelligence and injury avoidance.
If Vick had played the entirety of the 2010 season, he would have been the best fantasy player by far. His injuries forced him to finish first in quarterbacks and second overall. If he can prove himself to be a consistent and dynamic play every week, he will be the top fantasy quarterback in 2012.
In 2011, however, Aaron Rodgers is king.
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