2011 NFL Draft: Don't Be Shocked If These 15 Things Happen on Draft Day
If you follow the NFL draft each and every year, the reason it's so exciting is the unpredictability of each and every pick. Outside of the occasional first overall pick being signed and maybe the first few set before the draft, even the best insiders have next to no clue how the draft will play out.
Here are a set of potential shockers for draft day, but all are very possible, if not expected, by some insiders and some reports that I've seen and confirmed for the always unpredictable draft.
Don't Be Shocked If Three Safeties Go in the First Three Rounds
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Only three safeties got top-three-round grades from us: Rahim Moore of UCLA, Ahmad Black of Florida and DeAndre McDaniel of Clemson. Odds are, though, only Moore of those three ends up going in the top 96.
I've heard Quinton Carter of Oklahoma, Jeron Johnson of Boise State and Jaiwquan Jarrett of Temple are all being looked at in that third-round mix. No matter what, it's an ugly safety class this year.
Don't Be Shocked If 14 Linebackers Are Taken in First Three Rounds
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This sounds quite unbelievable in most years, but our top 10 outside linebackers all got top-three-round grades, and four more inside linebackers got the same grades. Is it a lock that all 14 will be mimicked by NFL teams? Maybe not.
But Von Miller, Justin Houston, Martez Wilson, Akeem Ayers and Dontay Moch all have top-two-round potential as 3-4 outside linebackers, and Colin McCarthy, Casey Matthews and Mason Foster all look like great weakside linebackers in a 4-3 defense.
Bruce Carter has first-round potential if he's healthy. KJ Wright can play in any system and is a quick learner and very coachable. And Kelvin Sheppard, Nate Irving, Quan Sturdivant and Greg Jones were all very productive in college and all can fit as ILB in a 3-4 defense or MLB/SLB in 4-3 defenses.
Don't Be Shocked If 26 Running Backs Are Drafted Overall
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It's only happened three times since 2000, but this year's class features many potential great rotational guys. This year's class had 13 running backs declare early from college. Last year's draft had only 13 running backs DRAFTED.
Guys like Roy Helu Jr. of Nebraska, Da'Rel Scott of Maryland, Bilal Powell of Louisville and Alex Green of Hawaii would be solid mid-round picks most years, but now teams will be able to grab them late in the draft.
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Don't Be Shocked If Two Running Backs Go in the First Round
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At one point in the middle-to-later portion of the season, as many as three or four running backs were projected to be taken in Round 1. However, now it seems like the consensus is that no running backs will go in Round 1.
However, keep this stat in mind: There has NEVER been a draft with less than two running backs taken in the first round. Only once in the past six years have fewer than three been taken in the top 32.
Don't Be Shocked If Half of the First Round Is Defensive Line
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At the very minimum, it looks as though Nick Fairley, Marcell Dareus, Phil Taylor, Corey Liuget, Da'Quan Bowers, Cameron Jordan, Robert Quinn, Ryan Kerrigan and JJ Watt are LOCKS for the first round. That's nine right there.
Guys like Jabaal Sheard of Pittsburgh, Cameron Heyward of Ohio State, Aldon Smith of Missouri, Adrian Clayborn of Iowa, Brooks Reed of Arizona, Muhammad Wilkerson of Temple and Stephen Paea of Oregon State are all firmly in the mix as well.
Don't Be Shocked If Two North Carolina Non-Players in 2010 Go Early 2nd Round
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While a whole host of North Carolina Tar Heels were suspended or injured this year, many have a chance to still go high in the draft. Robert Quinn is firmly in the first round some place, but many of the other talents are scattered throughout the draft.
However, two not getting enough attention and both who could end up in the 33-50 range are Marvin Austin at defensive tackle and Bruce Carter at outside linebacker. Austin has some motor question marks and Carter is coming off major knee surgery, but both have first-round ability and potential, and could be a steal in the second round to a patient team.
Don't Be Shocked If Five Small School Players Go in Top 64
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Right around this time of the year, fans get sick of hearing about the top 10-15 players in the draft and are searching for the diamonds in the rough. This season, there could be as many as four or five taken in the first two rounds.
Ben Ijalana of Villanova, Kenrick Ellis of Hampton, Edmund Gates of Abilene Christian, Taiwan Jones of Eastern Washington and Will Rackley of Lehigh are all in the mix for the second round area and could be viewed as worth the reach before some other team picks the "sleeper" prospect.
Don't Be Shocked If Ben Ijalana, Brooks Reed Go Top 25
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On the note of Ben Ijalana being firmly in the top two rounds, he has a definite chance to not only go in the first round, but in the middle portion of it. So far, the Giants have shown interest at No. 19, but teams like the Chiefs, Colts and Eagles all could use a right tackle in this draft.
Brooks Reed is an outside linebacker I'm not sold on, and I don't see Clay Matthews nearly as much as others do. Still, teams like the Jaguars, Patriots, Chiefs and Seahawks have all shown interest and it wouldn't shock me to see him go much higher than I think he belongs.
Don't Be Shocked If Da'Quan Bowers, Nick Fairley Don't Fall out of Top 10
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Da'Quan Bowers' draft stock in the media has taken a major hit thanks to his knee injury and reports of arthritis. Still, some reports have Bowers' knee checking out fine. Either way, he has the size of an NFL 4-3 end, the quickness to be a devastating pass rusher and the production that you want to see in a defensive player in college.
Also, reports about Nick Fairley and his "skipping of a team meeting" with the Dolphins has made some push him all the way out of the top 15, which is ridiculous. When I heard he was very tight with JaMarcus Russell back in January, I had him down to No. 8 to Tennessee the next day, but I don't think there's a very good chance he falls out of the top 10 at all.
Don't Be Shocked If Jimmy Smith Doesn't Go First Round
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Some consider Jimmy Smith the No. 2 cornerback in this draft ahead of Prince Amukamara, which, in my opinion, isn't warranted on film. However, the likelihood that Smith ends up in the first round seems dimmer and dimmer as the draft gets closer.
Reports of his character and work ethic are well-documented, and we've had him as a third-round prospect most of the year because of it. He had a positive drug test in 2007 and two arrests for possession of alcohol as a minor. Teams may not think he's a smart investment with their first pick in the draft.
Don't Be Shocked If Corey Liuget, Cameron Jordan Are in the Top 10
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I am not a Corey Liuget fan, and I think he's awfully raw and not fully developed to fit really anywhere in an NFL defense. However, some believe that he's a raw talent with some good film and enough potential to be a high draft pick. He has talent, and teams like the Browns and Titans in the top 10 may be intrigued.
Cameron Jordan flew up my board after his dominating Senior Bowl effort, and he's well worth the value in the top 10. The Bills could be very interested if Marcell Dareus is gone at No. 3, and the Browns, 49ers, Titans and Cowboys all could be very intrigued by the versatile rusher from Cal.
Don't Be Shocked If A.J. Green Ends Up in Carolina
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I've had A.J. Green going No. 1 for weeks now, and though it's becoming more and more clear that the favorite in the clubhouse is Cam Newton to be first overall, I still think it's a very strong possibility that Green ends up in Carolina blue.
Whether it's via trade down or staying at No. 1, Green is the best player on many boards, the GM drafted Clausen a year ago and owner Buddy Richardson is known for not being a high-paying, high-risk guy.
Don't Be Shocked If Six Quarterbacks End Up in 1st Round
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In the past 15 years, only one draft had six quarterbacks drafted in the first TWO rounds. So why on Earth would this year have six taken in the first round? Well first off, I think only four quarterback have top-two-round value, so the value isn't the reason.
The reason is that free agency and trades will happen AFTER the draft, teams that in most years would have their quarterback dilemmas at least partially fixed, don't have a clue who their quarterback is for next year. If Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb and Marc Bulger all went to their next stop by now, that'd be three teams that don't need a quarterback.
Don't Be Shocked If Colin Kaepernick Goes Top 20 on Draft Day
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After the season was over, Kaepernick was the trendy sleeper for many people, with him being a "steal" in the fourth round of the draft. However, now it seems that he's no longer a sleeper at all. At the Senior Bowl, Kaepernick was getting interest from tons of teams, and based on what I heard, the top of the second round was absolutely not out of the question.
Now that teams are both searching for franchise quarterbacks and know the interest around Kaepernick, they know they may have to reach to get their man. I wouldn't take Kaepernick before the middle-to-late second round, but it looks as though teams are more than willing to pull the trigger in that same area but one round earlier.
Don't Be Shocked If Ryan Mallett Goes Top 15 on Draft Day
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Mallett's stock has been all over the place this offseason, and now that the draft is just two weeks away, you'd think we have a more clear picture. But we don't. Almost not a clue. It's impossible to know if teams interested in him like the Panthers, Bengals, Titans, Vikings, Dolphins and Jaguars is for the first round or second round.
But now that the character concerns are finally starting to subside in the media, it looks as though he could be someplace in the first round. The Vikings and Dolphins have shown the most interest, and while I still feel he'll fall to the second round because of teams' concerns about his leadership ability and rumored drug use, don't be shocked if a team pulls the trigger early and hopes to get the next Drew Bledsoe.
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