NFL Draft 2011: How Rookie Pay Proposal Will Affect Draft (With Updated Mock)

The NFL has proposed to divert rookie salary money to league veterans, cutting nearly 60 percent of guaranteed money for first round picks and making the Carolina Panthers' first overall pick all the more tantalizing.

$300 million will be shifted from rookie contracts to veteran salaries and benefits. Individual contracts will still be negotiated, but all first round agreements will be fixed at five years. This will slow the growth rate of first-round selections and also immediately impact the decisions of the teams at the top of the draft. 

In 2007, JaMarcus Russell received $32.019 million in guaranteed money before he played a snap in the NFL. This contract—as well as the failure of Russell to meet expectations—set the Raiders back for years. 

The owners are attempting to resurrect the initial purpose of the draft by putting the teams in a position to rebuild their franchises without being restricted by over-expensive rookie salaries. 

This is being met with discord from agents and potential first-rounders, but the Panthers will be the largest beneficiaries of this proposal. 

Cam Newton has become the consensus number one pick, and while I think he fits into Rob Chudzinski's vertical pass offense, Marty Hurney's history indicates he has no motivation to take a chance on Newton. Again, whether or not that is the right decision is debatable, because Newton has the potential to make the Panthers regret passing up on him.

However, the possibility that Carolina trades out of that number one spot is coming closer to reality. Both Arizona and Cincinnati have both expressed interest in Blaine Gabbert, but it is almost a foregone conclusion that Gabbert will be a top three pick—whether Carolina makes a surprise pick or Buffalo is forced to take him after Carolina selects Newton, who is reportedly on the top of Buffalo's board. 

Because Cincinnati and Arizona are aware of Buffalo's need for a quarterback, it is certain that either one or both are in talks with Denver for that number two pick. Such a battle could cause one to abandon talks with Denver, and go straight to Carolina, who—according to all indications—is willing to move out of their spot. 

There are numerous reasons Carolina would do so:

• Ron Rivera is obviously a defensive minded coach who has acquired a group of young, unproven defensive tackles.
• Marty Hurney has experienced the unpredictability of a quarterback's success in the NFL—UDFA Jake Delhomme took the Panthers to a Super Bowl and two NFC Championships while Heisman winner Chris Weinke was never able to succeed.
• Carolina could get just as good value at number four or five as they would at number one. In addition, they would likely acquire a high second round pick—they lost their pick to New England in order to draft Armanti Edwards in 2010—and a high first rounder in 2012.
• The rookie pay proposal would make acquiring another two high draft picks even more attractive for a rebuilding franchise. 

Minnesota has also been mentioned in talks to move up to draft a quarterback. If the Vikings did move up to number two, the situation would become even more complex. At this point, Buffalo would feel that their chances of landing a quarterback are slim and they might be compelled to make a move for the number one pick, where they could draft Cam Newton, who in their minds is a franchise quarterback.

Cincinnati and Arizona would feel similarly and either could make a convincing offer that Carolina is seeking to justify moving out of the most powerful position in the draft.

This is just speculation of course, but leading up to the draft, the reality is that no one truly knows what will occur and it is always better to go in with an open mind. When the first round concludes, it is inevitable that something completely unforeseen will have just occurred.

A quarterback frenzy could occur in this case and I believe the majority of trades will involve quarterbacks. This would all be made more likely by the rookie pay proposal, which will lessen the fear of signing a rookie quarterback to a huge deal. 

Taking this all into consideration, I have completed a mock draft unlike most others you will see. This takes into account what I believe to be the most likely trades. 

Team	Player	Position	College	Note
1. Arizona (from Carolina)	Blaine Gabbert	QB	Missouri	Gabbert has the tools of a quarterback that you build around. Arizona will take the chance after seeing division rival Sam Bradford's success in St. Louis.
2. Denver Broncos	Marcell Dareus	DT	Alabama	Denver will be incredibly disappointed to not find a trade partner, but they will not receive a lucrative enough offer from Minnesota or Cincinnati, who will not move up for Cam Newton.
3. Buffalo	Cam Newton	QB	Auburn	Buffalo will not be able to resist the number one player on their board. This is an ideal situation for them as they did not have to trade up.
4. Cincinnati	A.J. Green	WR	Georgia	Green could end up being the best choice for a Cincinnati franchise that is in free-fall right now.
5. Carolina (from Arizona)	Patrick Peterson	CB	LSU	Peterson is viewed as the most talented player by many scouts and Carolina would be getting a steal here, but would also throw off the following picks.
6. Cleveland	Von Miller	OLB	Texas A&M	Cleveland will be very happy to get Miller, the top 3-4 prospect of the draft. Although Peterson would be considered if he falls to this spot.
7. San Francisco	Prince Amukamara	CB	Nebraska	The 49ers were hoping Peterson would last, but that appears less likely every passing day. Amukamara could end up being the better cover corner though.
8. Tennessee	Nick Fairley	DT	Auburn	Once thought to be a top flight prospect, Fairley has fallen off due to character concerns. Tennessee will see the similarity to Albert Haynesworth though and draft him.
9. St. Louis (from Dallas)	Julio Jones	WR	Alabama	St. Louis knows that there is interest in Jones, so they will trade up to give their franchise quarterback some much-needed help.
10. Washington	Jake Locker	QB	Washington	This is the first big shock of the draft. The 'Skins badly want a quarterback and Locker fits in well here.
11. Houston	J.J. Watt	DE	Wisconsin	Watt is rising up draft boards and they would consider Robert Quinn here, but Watt is the "safer" pick.
12. New England (from Minnesota)	Robert Quinn	OLB	UNC	When New England see Quinn slip, they will make the big move some are expecting to grab him. Minnesota is looking to trade down though, and the Pats are a perfect partner.
13. Detroit	Anthony Castonzo	OT	B.C.	This will be a struggle between Castonzo and Smith. Both are talented, but it just comes down to which one they feel more comfortable with.
14. Dallas (from St.Louis)	Tyron Smith	OT	USC	Dallas will feel extremely happy to land Smith at this spot, as he's a player they would have strongly considered at the nine spot.
15. Miami	Ryan Mallett	QB	Arkansas	Miami has recently been showing a lot of interest in Mallett and he is definitely a franchise quarterback in my mind.
16. Jacksonville	Ryan Kerrigan	DE	Purdue	Jacksonville was second worst in the league in sacks and Kerrigan can make an immediate impact as a three-down pass rusher.
17. Minnesota (from Oakland through New England)	Da'Quan Bowers	DE	Clemson	Minnesota will use the second round pick they acquired from New England to trade for or draft a quarterback. They get great value for the slipping Bowers here though.
18. San Diego	Cameron Jordan	DE	California	He is an ideal fit in the Chargers' 3-4. While they may consider a talented linebacker like Aldon Smith, this is the smarter pick.
19. New York Giants	Mike Pouncey	C/OG	Florida	The lesser of the Pouncey brothers, Mike, is less polished, but can be groomed to become the same player as his brother down the road.
20. Tampa Bay	Akeem Ayers	OLB	UCLA	If Bowers or Kerrigan is here, they could be the pick, but Ayers has good upside and he already is a complete player who could help them get to the quarterback.
21. Kansas City	Corey Liuget	DT	Illinois	Akeem Ayers would have had a chance here, but they are in deep need of a nose tackle and Liuget will be a force in the NFL.
22. Indianapolis	Nate Solder	OT	Colorado	Solder is a good pass blocker and the Colts deeply need to protect Manning as his career hits the home stretch.
23. Philadelphia	Jimmy Smith	CB	Colorado	Character concerns have pushed the talented Smith out of the top half of the draft, but the Eagles get good value here.
24. New Orleans	Muhammad Wilkerson	DT	Temple	New Orleans is losing a lot of talent to free agency this year and they'll need to hold together their defensive line with the versatile Wilkerson.
25. Seattle	Andy Dalton	QB	TCU	Some consider him to be the most NFL ready quarterback in the draft, but that's what they said about Clausen. Dalton will go here because of Mallet's absence.
26. Cincinnati (from Baltimore)	Christian Ponder	QB	FSU	When the Bengals don't get their man with the fourth pick, they will trade back into the first round to get a potential franchise quarterback.
27. Atlanta	Aldon Smith	DE	Missouri	If Smith slips this far, Atlanta will have to draft him. They need a pass rusher and Smith will fill that void.
28. New England	Mark Ingram	RB	Alabama	The Pats will feel pressured to take a defensive end at this spot, but running back will be a bigger need at this point.
29. Chicago	Derrek Sherrod	OT	Miss. State	Chicago may take a surprise receiver at this spot, but offensive line is a major need right now.
30. New York Jets	Phil Taylor	DT	Baylor	The big man out of Baylor immediately fills the void—literally—at nose tackle left by Kris Jenkins.
31. Pittsburgh	Aaron Williams	CB	Texas	Offensive line is also a concern here, but Williams is very talented and deserving of a first round pick to add youth to this defense.
32. Green Bay	Cameron Heyward	DE	Ohio State	He fits well into their 3-4 and fills a positional need. Danny Watkins will be considered here though, but that would be a mistake.