Madden Cover 2012: Who Will Get the Coveted Spot and the Curse?
And then there were four...
At a time when there isn't any real professional football going on, and all apologies to the Arena League, the biggest drama in the NFL is limited to the draft in just over two weeks, and who will be on the cover of the Madden 2012 video game.
As a regular draft columnist, I'll continue to besiege you with draft intensive articles in the next couple of weeks just as I have done for the last few months.
But there are times for a fun diversion and while the temptation might be to dismiss a video game as silliness, the reality is that the game is as much a part of modern Americana as any other sport.
Consider that according to Alex Pham of the Los Angeles Times in 2009, "Madden NFL had sold 70 million copies and rung up more than $2 billion in sales." Current estimates seem to be in the neighborhood of 85 billion copies and $3 billion in sales since the games inception in 1988.
Simply put, Madden matters to people.
With the cover of the football game being as highly publicized as the game itself largely due to the theory of a curse on the player who receives the annual honor (after being on the cover, several players suffered serious injuries or had a decrease in performance), the hype machine has a found a new way to spur fan interest.
The face of the 2012 game is now being decided via a tournament style vote and we are left with four possible candidates: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick, Cleveland Browns running back Peyton Hillis and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson.
In the semi-finals, with the voting to be cast this week, Rodgers will face off against Hillis and Vick will be challenged by Peterson. The finals will occur next week.
Let's take a look at the different candidates, predict who will win, as well as who should win (since this may not be the same person):
1. Peyton Hillis
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Hillis burst onto the national scene in 2010 by rushing for 1,177 yards and 11 touchdowns. He also caught 61 passes for 477 yards and two touchdowns. He did fumble the ball eight times and lost five of them.
Previously he was best known as the blocking back for his Arkansas Razorback teammates and NFL peers Felix Jones and Darren McFadden. How did Arkansas not dominate when they were in the same backfield?
Why he should be on the cover:
Hillis is a true throwback in that he is a physically punishing running back and excels in all facets of the game. Hillis reminds the elder generation of Miami's Larry Csonka or Pittsburgh's Rocky Bleier.
His blue collar personality fits with the image that the NFL would like to promote in an age of millionaires and billionaires. John Madden, the coach and broadcaster, has been known for his affinity for tough, smash-mouth type players. The Cleveland Browns have a deep and very loyal fan base.
Why he shouldn't be on the cover:
At this point, Hillis is a one-year wonder. He was far from the best running back in the NFL last year and finished 11th in rushing yardage.
The Browns won just five games last season and they probably turned Hillis' way so often out of necessity as much as the players' talent.
His smash-mouth style doesn't suggest a long career and it doesn't fit with the league's focus on the passing game and pinball like scoring. He has done surprisingly well so far in the Madden voting, but I still doubt his coast-to-coast visibility.
According to NFLshop.com (which is my source for jersey popularity and sales), he ranks 22nd in jersey sales, which is impressive, but well behind the other three finalists.
Jersey sales are only one indicator of popularity but a pretty reflective one for what people think of the player. Also, consider that with LeBron gone from Cleveland and no other marquee player on the Browns, the city is desperate for a hero and therefore Hillis jersey sales would increase.
2. Aaron Rodgers
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The defending Super Bowl champion and MVP is just entering his peak as a quarterback. Last season, Rodgers threw for 3,922 yards and 28 touchdowns. His quarterback rating was an outstanding 101.2.
Why he should be on the cover:
His postseason last year was nothing short of magnificent and most importantly he led his team through the adversity of several individual injuries to key playmakers.
Rodgers has also battled multiple concussions and with that issue reportedly being a focus of the new version of the game, I can't think of a more appropriate choice to stress the importance of the issue.
The Packers have an ardent fan base and his jersey was the seventh-best seller last year.
Why he shouldn't be on the cover:
Rodgers is a great quarterback, but outside of Packer nation, the national scene finds him somewhat boring as a personality.
Mind you, I find it refreshing that Rodgers is somewhat humble and not incredibly outspoken. But, it doesn't necessarily help sell video games. Statistically, Rodgers had a better season across the board in 2009 and he is likely to have an even better one in the future, especially with the return of tight end Jermichael Finley.
Yes, his jersey is the seventh-best seller behind Vick at six, but unlike Vick, Rodgers simply doesn't get as many people to talk about his play.
3. Adrian Peterson
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"AP" had his typical stellar season despite his team's adversity. He rushed for 1,298 yards and 12 touchdowns. His yards per carry was a gaudy 4.6. For all the talk about his fumbling problem, Peterson had just one last season.
Peterson has easily surpassed 1,000 yards rushing during each of his five seasons in the NFL. He has also never had less than 10 touchdowns on the ground in a season.
Why he should be on the cover:
Peterson's tackle-breaking magic and elite speed are a better fit with today's fast-break offenses and the video game environment of Madden. Peterson is an extremely popular player as evidenced by the fact that his jersey is the 14th-best seller in the league. I've met Peterson and he appears to be a stand-up guy with good character.
Why he shouldn't be on the cover:
The Minnesota Vikings, much like Hillis' Browns, had a disappointing season with just six wins. It's debatable whether a player should receive the "prestigious individual honor" when he doesn't elevate his team to success or when he doesn't have a career defining year.
Peterson did neither. He has taken a tremendous pounding during his short career, and for those who wonder about the curse of the Madden cover, I would suggest that Peterson won't remain healthy year after year. Running backs just don't have a long shelf life in this league.
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4. Michael Vick
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No one had a bigger career renaissance than Michael Vick did in 2010. In his first year starting since 2006, he had the best numbers of his career with 3,016 yards passing, 21 touchdowns and just six interceptions.
Why he should be on the cover:
Love or hate Vick, most people feel passionately one way or the other. Some see him as the model of redemption who has made the most of his second chance after being imprisoned for running a dog-fighting operation.
Others view him as a dog killer who is unfairly being compensated with millions of dollars for the privilege of playing in the NFL.
Either way, there is little denying that people are passionate about Vick and he is an electric athlete who makes spectacular plays that often belong in a video game. He also had an outstanding season for the Eagles. If he is on the cover, increased sales are a good bet, because the younger generation that plays Madden clearly enjoys his brand of football.
Why he shouldn't be on the cover:
Ethically, it’s questionable at best to put him on the cover. Forget whether he has paid his dues to society. As the Eagles' franchise player, he'll earn close to 20 million dollars next season, assuming there is one. Point being, no one is denying him "a chance to make a living."
The bigger issue is that video games have gone way too far in crossing the line with what is appropriate for children as a demographic. A shooter game or Grand Theft Auto is one thing, but if we say it's OK to have a convicted dog-killer on the cover of a sports game that likely won't come with any kind of serious warning label, well that's quite another.
As for Vick's performance on the field, he started to become less productive late in the season and his style of play clearly does not support him staying on the field. He missed three games in the middle of last season with a rib injury and there is a legitimate question as to whether last season was the best that Vick will ever be.
The Verdict
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You never know for sure how a popularity contest is going to turn out. Just ask Pia Toscano from American Idol. The best candidate doesn't always win. In fact, the argument could be made that the best candidate usually doesn't win.
Also, because some fans honestly believe in the Madden cover curse they could easily vote for a player that isn't their favorite or the best.
I expect the Aaron Rodgers-Peyton Hillis voting to be a lot closer than one might assume but Rodgers will get the majority of the vote. Normally, I'd assume that Vick would steamroll Peterson because — while both are flashy, dynamic players — Vick is just far more visible given his playing position and checkered history.
Still, Peterson defeated Philip Rivers in round two and Drew Brees in round three which really shocks me.
If there is a true upset left, I think it will be Peterson over Vick. That being said, Vick will narrowly advance.
Which brings us to a rematch of sorts between the two quarterbacks from last season's divisional playoff game....
Rodgers is the better quarterback and perceived person, and if we are talking about the cover as an appropriate reward, I have no doubt that number 12 should be on the Madden 2012 cover.
However, at the end of the day, a video game is about entertaining the masses and that's why Michael Vick will be on the cover of Madden 2012.
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