NHL Playoff Predictions 2011: In-Depth Western Conference Preview
Last year, the top teams in the conference dominated the postseason.
However, in what may be the most-balanced conference in NHL history, with an eighth-seeded defending champ, exceptional coaches everywhere and five goalies that all have Vezina cases, things should be a little crazier this time around.
The regular season ended today, and it took until the final game for the Western Conference top eight to be decided. All stats are in as of April 10th, although this isn't a stat-heavy preview.
For each series, I will give a story line and break down the key matchup, key number and x-factor, before reaching a verdict.
No. 1 Vancouver vs. No. 8 Chicago
1 of 7
The Canucks have experienced setbacks for much of the season, whereas the rest of the West is months into the playoffs. Chicago made it back into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins but count on Joel Quenville to put the regular season in the back of his player’s minds.
Key Matchup: Corey Crawford vs. Roberto Luongo. Crawford will be making his playoff debut, and while Niemi’s rookie campaign won the Hawks the cup, inexperience can often lead to failure. Luongo is as experienced as they come, but playoff success isn’t exactly in his repertoire either.
Key Number: 79.2%. Both of these teams rely heavily on their dominant power plays, but while Vancouver’s penalty kill (85.6%) is second in the league, Chicago’s is 25th. When great PP’s do their thing against bad PK’s, the results are ugly.
X-Factor: Brent Seabrook. He’s quietly been one of the league’s best defenseman this year, and while no one can shut down the Sedin line, a dominant series from a Hawks defenseman could limit the bleeding and allow the Chicago offense some zone time and momentum.
Verdict: While a much more competitive, dangerous Blackhawks team will show up than the one that backed into the postseason on the final day, a Vancouver team will show up that remembers who ended their last two seasons, and this team playing with an edge is, well, tough to beat. Canucks in 6
No. 2 San Jose vs. No. 7 Los Angeles
2 of 7
The Kings enter the playoffs as wounded as anyone, with Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams out. The Sharks, however, know what happens when you take any Pacific division team lightly and know what happens when you let the Kings get going.
Key Matchup: Drew Doughty vs. Joe Thornton. While the Sharks second and third lines clearly outmatch the depth of L.A’s defense, Jonathan Quick can possibly handle the load. What he cannot handle is those two lines plus a clicking Joe Thornton line, and Doughty shutting him down will be the only way the Kings win this series.
Key Number: 10-0. Jonathan Quick was absolutely unbeatable in shootouts this year, and as a result, the King’s picked up 10 extra points. Just one shootout loss by Quick and they aren’t in the playoffs. They may be here now, but playoff games don’t have shootouts, and this Kings team is only 36-34 in non-shootout decided games.
X-Factor: Torrey Mitchell. The Kings will do all they can to shut down the Sharks top lines, meaning the Pavelski line will be free to take over this series. Joe’s playoff heroics last year were amazing, but his linemates Ryane Clowe and Devin Setoguchi deserve half the credit. If Mitchell steps his game up, expect an encore.
Verdict: This would’ve been the series of the playoffs had Kopitar been healthy; the two top teams in the league’s best divison playing each other for the 13th time this season in Game 7. With the Kings injury woes and the Sharks depth, it may be one of the least eventful matchups. Sharks in 5
No. 3 Detroit vs. No. 6 Phoenix
3 of 7
A rematch from last season, except that Detroit will have the advantage of home ice this time around. Phoenix is a more experienced, hungrier team this year and the Wings are healthier. The series went seven last year, and it’ll only be more heated in 2011.
Key Matchup: Tomas Holmstrom vs. Phoenix D-men. Phoenix plays a bend-but-don’t-break defense, allowing pucks to the net but limiting traffic, keeping Bryzgalov unscreened and limiting/clearing rebounds. The Wings thrive off traffic, screens, deflections and rebounds more than any team in the league and Holstrom is the man who does all the dirty work. If Phoenix can keep him out of Bryzgalov’s face, the Yotes can play their game.
Key Number: 40. Niklas Lidstrom is one of the greatest defenseman of all time and doesn’t seem to be losing his game with age. However, he was dominated by San Jose in last year’s playoffs, and a year older now, after playing a full 82-game season, he could slow down.
X-Factor: Henrik Zetterberg. He has 80 points in 80 games this year, and no other player in this series is as reliable a scorer. While Datsyuk, Yandle, Lidstrom and Bryzgalov are considered the difference makers on each side, Zetterberg’s production is the heart of Detroit’s offense, and Detroit’s offense will likely determine this series.
Verdict: The Wings dominated Game 7 of this series last year, and it appeared after that that Detroit was clearly better when committed. This is a dangerous way of thinking; Phoenix plays a game that is designed to frustrate stubborn, pucks-to-the-net offensive teams to penetrate. Coyotes in 7
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No. 4 Anaheim vs. No. 5 Nashville
4 of 7
If anyone picked Nashville to finish fifth in the West this year, it was probably Barry Trotz. If anyone picked Anaheim to even make the playoffs, it was likely Randy Carlyle. But that is indeed what happened, and now, if anyone thinks that one of these teams won’t make the West’s final four, they simply don’t know the playoff match-ups.
Key Matchup: Shea Weber vs. Corey Perry. This is about as good a battle as there’ll be this postseason. The Preds are not a deep team offensively, and rely on their D-men to make plays at the blue line that lead to quick offense. The Ducks top line is about as good at entering the zone as possible, and they certainly would not be in the postseason without Perry’s insane play since the beginning of March. If Weber can do what he does best and shut down the opponents top gun, the Ducks won’t be around for too long. If he can’t, the Ducks torrid run will continue.
Key Number: -25. Cam Fowler has done some nice things this rookie season, but defending his zone 5-on-5 is not one of them. Nashville has a quick strike offense and a deep defense, meaning that their blue-liners will likely do well against the Ducks second and third lines and create even-strength transition opportunities. Fowler is going to have to grow up very quickly.
X-Factor: Patrick Hornqvist. Not much about this series is even. The Preds have far better defense, goaltending and speed, while Anaheim has more firepower and strength. If any Preds forward can match or at least challenge the Ducks top line, it’ll be Hornqvist, and if he has a dominant series, forget about it.
Verdict: The Ducks are a great story, but this Nashville team is better than them in almost every way. They win more draws, defend their zone better and finally have the depth necessary to win in the postseason. Only home ice will prevent this from ending quickly. Predators in 6
No. 1 Vancouver vs. No. 6 Phoenix
5 of 7
With their normal season-crushing team disposed of, Vancouver will enter this series with their confidence at an all-time high. Phoenix, after knocking out the Red Wings, won’t have much self-doubt of their own.
Key Matchup: Eric Belanger vs. Ryan Kesler. Vancouver does a lot of things right, and everything they do starts with winning their draws, which they do more than any NHL team. Phoenix also relies on heavily on faceoffs, and neither team fares too well when getting beaten in the circle. The top face-off guys on each team happen to center each second line, and if in fact these two do meet especially often, Belanger can make up for his non-Kesler like scroing numbers with equally important face-off wins.
Key Number: 26. The Canucks may have two 41-goal scorers, but Kesler leads the team with 26 even-strength goals. While this is still more than Phoenix’s leading scorer, the fact is that Vancouver isn’t too much better than the Yotes 5-on-5. The Yotes’ 78.4% PK is just not good enough to stop Vancouver’s 24.3% PP, but if they stay out of the box, Phoenix will be in every game.
X-Factor: Ilya Bryzgalov. If the Yotes play their game, step up on draws and stay out of the box, make no mistake about it, they’ll be in this series. But in it, is all they’ll be; only Ilya Bryzgalov playing at his absolute best will win these close games for Phoenix. If he turns in a career performance, the Canucks will go down, if he’s simply his usual great self, they won’t.
Verdict: This may seem like an easy series for Vancouver, but a Phoenix team playing their game is a bad matchup for the Canucks. If the series were to be played with no mistakes, it would go to the Coyotes, but playoff hockey is ugly, grimy and anything but mistake-free, and who capitalizes on mistakes better than Vancouver? Canucks in 7
No. 2 San Jose vs. No. 5 Nashville
6 of 7
The Sharks will be breathing a sigh of relief that they aren’t playing the Red WIngs like they expected, and Nashville is going to be disappointed to see Patrick Marleau.
Key Matchup: Antti Niemi vs. Pekka Rinne. The Sharks are a team that pushes the puck relentlessly, and the Predators are a team that picks their spots. While Rinne is going to see a lot of rubber, he is among the NHL’s best in terms of surviving extended attacks and preventing rebounds. And while Niemi will see a lot of odd-man chances, he is among the NHL’s best in terms of cutting off angles. This matchup could be considered a mute draw, but after heavy second half workloads for both, fatigue could settle in for either one.
Key Number: 194. Nashville, after Vancouver, allowed fewer goals than any team during the regular season. The Sharks are very comfortable in close games and playing from behind, but if they get behind to Nashville, the Preds may just be too tough defensively for the comeback machine to prevail.
X-Factor: Marc-Edouard Vlasic. The Sharks’ best stay-at-home defenseman will need to play his role to perfection against Nashville’s deadly transition offense. If he can win the battle against Nashville’s speedy forwards, the Preds may not find the back of the net enough to keep up with San Jose. If Vlasic falters, the Preds will be playing with the lead often.
Verdict: These teams play contrasting styles and have contrasting rosters. Both goalies are great but very different, and the Sharks have much more forward depth. The Predators top two defensemen are the best two in the series, but the Sharks blue line is deeper. The Preds like to dominate defensively, but San Jose is balanced enough to beat them at their own game. Sharks in 5
No. 1 Vancouver vs. No. 2 San Jose
7 of 7
Last year’s Western finals featured a second seed that had been there the year before and lost and a first seed that had finally broken through and could smell the finals. The same can be said for this matchup, with San Jose switching over to that second seed role.
Key Matchup: Sharks top line vs. Canucks top line. Both of these teams are good on draws, good defensively and deep offensively. The Sharks may have better depth, but the Canucks can make up for it with the best top line in hockey. A year ago, it was Thornton-Marleau-Heatley that held that distinction, but all Heatley plays on the second line now, and Thornton has had a down year points-wise. The Sharks leaders will be put to the greatest test of their careers, and if they hold their own, can really tip the scale in San Jose’s favor. But if the big boys in teal are not smart with puck possession and accountable defensively, the Sedins will dominate this series.
Key Number: .914. The Canucks win when leading after one period virtually every time, and while the Sharks are 10th in the league when trailing after one, that still puts them at a .318 winning %. The Sharks are relatively comfortable playing from behind, but if the Canucks get ahead in a short series, they won’t blow their leads, plain and simple.
X-Factor: Scott Nichol. A 4th line player usually does not decide a series, but Nichol is a special case. To win this series, San Jose will need to do three things: have better third & fourth line play, out-check Vancouver, and kill penalties better than usual. Nichol is paramount to all three of these facets of San Jose’s game, and if he turns in a great series, he truly could swing things the Sharks way.
Verdict: In what is likely the meeting between hockey’s two best teams, Vancouver will hop out onto homce ice and grab an early lead. The Sharks may not be able to come back in a given game, but no team in the NHL is as adept at bouncing back with an added jolt when their backs are against the wall, and San Jose will do just that. Sharks in 6
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