Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Series Preview: The Rivalry Returns?
If you ask me, the Philadelphia Phillies got off to a pretty good start this weekend at home. Three games. Three wins.
That good start went way beyond simply getting three wins, however, as the team answered several imposing questions that people around the game held against them heading into the season. As Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Roy Oswalt toed the hill, people questioned whether or not they would be able to live up to the hype. They responded by walking just one hitter, striking out 23 more and allowing just six earned runs in 19 innings pitched.
Starting the season without Jayson Werth and Chase Utley in the lineup was going to be a problem for the Phils'. The offense looks weak and won't provide any run support. Those critics were silenced by the likes of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Ben Francisco, who are all off to hot starts, as well as some timely hitting from the bottom of the order and bench.
Three games into the season, the Phillies look like they have something to prove this season, and by all means, they do. The way they played this weekend, it's hard to believe that they can only get better this season, as I was reminded by a fellow fan this weekend. "We just swept the [Houston] Astros with Wilson Valdez starting at second base, Jose Contreras closing games and some Minor League guy [Michael Martinez, who was starting for Shane Victorino]. It's only going to get better when Chase [Utley] and Brad [Lidge] come back."
Indeed, the Phillies had an encouraging series, but let's not get ahead of ourselves, Philadelphia. There are 159 games left to play, and as last season proved, anything can happen. Let's take this thing one game (or series, in this case) at a time. After all, the New York Mets are coming to town.
The Mets' struggles off the field were well documented this winter, but the lineup they'll field poses more of a challenge than the one the Astros boasted this weekend. With the Mets struggles last season, the rivalry with the Phillies sort of died out, but a healthy Mets team and a Phils' team high off of a sweep to start the season would like nothing more than to renew a once bitter rivalry.
Game One: Cole Hames vs. Chris Young
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This is probably going to be the most interesting game of the series, and that doesn't happen often when Roy Halladay is listed as a probable pitcher in the upcoming three games. However, this game will feature an interesting pitcher on both sides. The Phillies will send Cole Hamels to the mound, and with three of four aces having already gotten that first start out of the way, Phils' fans are more than curious to see if the only home-grown pitcher in the rotation can live up to the Cy Young potential some people have placed on him. The Mets will send one of the spring's best pitchers to the hill in Chris Young, as he attempts to come back from shoulder injury and carry that early spring momentum into the regular season.
The Mets will be a nice challenge for Hamels as he looks to get the season started on the right foot. For whatever the reason may be, he has notoriously struggled against the Mets, including taking the loss in a couple of 1-0 games last season. Over the last three years, Hamels is 1-7 with a 4.33 ERA against the Phils' rival. I'd throw those numbers out the window, however. Though his control has been a bit sporadic this spring, look for Hamels to move his fastball well to both sides of the plate using his cutter and running fastball and using one of the best change-ups in baseball with great frequency.
Young has the potential to pay huge dividends for the Mets this season, as he really came on strong at the end of last season with the San Diego Padres afters spending most of the year on the disabled list and extended that success right into spring training. The Phillies haven't seen him since 2009 when they roughed him up in two games against the Padres.
Advantage: Phillies
Step Your Game Up: Shane Victorino and Carlos Beltran
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Shane Victorino: Despite leaving Saturday night's game against the Astros with a sore calf, Victorino returned to the field on Sunday afternoon when he pinch hit for Michael Martinez and remained in the game to play center field. We should fully expect him to be in the lineup for the first game against the Mets and it's a good thing—the Phils' will need him in the lineup and contributing against Chris Young.
With Jimmy Rollins having settled into the third spot in the lineup, it'll be up to Victorino to get things going at the top of the order. In nine career at-bats against Young, the Phils' center fielder has collected three hits including a double.
Carlos Beltran: Beltran missed a lot of time last season with knee problems, and as a result, the Mets struggled. He is a key cog in their lineup and if they're going to make any noise at all this season, it'll be because Beltran is back on the field and healthy.
If he's going to get things going this season, his best chance will be against Cole Hamels. Having played in the same division for years, the two have seen one another quite often and Beltran has the upper hand with a career .323 average against the Phils' lefty, including two doubles and three home runs.
Game Two: Joe Blanton vs. Mike Pelfrey
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After months of trade speculation following the Cliff Lee signing, Joe Blanton will finally open his season against the New York Mets on Wednesday afternoon, and the Phillies couldn't have made a better decision. Blanton is a quality starting pitcher and is more than serviceable as the team's fifth starter. Whether or not he's able to live up to the $8.5 million the Phils' owe him this year—well that is yet to be seen.
He should be able to get off to a good start against the Mets. Over the last three seasons, the right hander has pitched well against his rivals from New York. He's posted a record of 2-1 with an ERA of 3.86.
He'll be opposed by the notoriously inconsistent Mets' starter, Mike Pelfrey, who will be making his second start of the season. In his first start, Pelfrey was roughed up by the Florida Marlins, as they tagged him for five earned runs in just 4.1 innings. Despite a winnings record, he's also struggled against the Phils' over the last three seasons, posting a record of 6-3 to go along with an ERA of 4.58.
Advantage: Even
Step Your Game Up: Ryan Howard and Ike Davis
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Ryan Howard: With Chase Utley opening the season on the disabled list, it was painfully obvious that the Phillies would need Howard to step up in a big way and pick up the slack in the middle of the order, and step up he has. Through the first three games of the season, Howard is hitting a cool .538 with a monstrous bomb to center field.
Over the course of his career, the "Big Piece" has absolutely handled Mike Pelfrey. In 30 at-bats against the Mets' right hander, Howard has posted a slash line of .367 / .457 / .500, with a home run and five walks.
Ike Davis: If the Mets are going to be successful on Wednesday afternoon against the Phillies, it'll likely be because sophomore first baseman Ike Davis had a say in the outcome. After an impressive rookie campaign, the Mets will be relying on Davis to help carry their offense, especially with Jason Bay on the disabled list. In eight at-bats against Joe Blanton, the lefty has collected four hits, including a double, and a walk.
Game Three: Roy Halladay vs. Jon Niese
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Game three will also be an interesting match-up, as each team will take on a pitcher they've had struggles against in the past. Arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball, Roy Halladay will take on Jon Niese, a crafty young left handed starter who has been able to neutralize the heart of the Phils' order in the past.
Halladay started on Opening Day for the Phillies, having no obvious layoff from last season. Short and simple, Roy Halladay was Roy Halladay. He pitched well enough to win the game but the Phils' bats had other plans, walking off instead. He allowed one earned run on five hits against the Astros.
Over the last three seasons, if you absolutely needed to win one game against the Mets, Halladay is your guy. In four starts, he has posted a record of 4-0 with an ERA of just 2.56. It should also be noted that he's struck out 28 Mets in that span while walking just two.
Out of the three Mets' starters going against the Phillies in this series, one would imagine that Niese has the best chance to pick up a win. He's the type of crafty lefty that the Phils' have struggled against in the past, and over the last three seasons, struggle they have. Over that span of time, Niese has posted a record of 1-1 and an ERA of just 2.14 against the Phillies.
Advantage: Phillies
Step Your Game Up: Carlos Ruiz and Josh Thole
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Carlos Ruiz: Last season, Ruiz practically picked the Phillies up on his back and carried them through the season. Hopefully, this season, the Phils' will be able to stay healthy throughout the regular season and their catcher can ride that health through the year. Though he didn't hit much in the first series of the season, "Chooch" has hit Jon Niese pretty well over the course of his career—three hits in nine at-bats—and the Phils' will need his right handed bat against a tough lefty.
Josh Thole: There aren't many guys who can say that they've had "success" against Roy Halladay in their careers, but in his first season in the Major Leagues, Josh Thole has done just that. He's collected six hits in nine at-bats against the reigning National League Cy Young, and if the Mets want to make a chink in his armor, they'll need Thole's help.
When It's All Said and Done...
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When it's all said and done, the Phillies shouldn't have had a problem winning their second consecutive series of the 2011 season. Looking at game one, one would assume that Cole Hamels can continue his 2010 success into this season, especially at home in front of the Phils' fans, where he's had success in the past.
The final two games are a little closer to call, but it isn't hard to imagine the Phillies winning one of two. Joe Blanton, who had a very good spring, looks to carry that momentum into the regular season and what better guy to send to the mound in a game three than Roy Halladay?
If all goes well, the Phils' can go on the road to Atlanta this weekend 6-0.
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