Week 6 Line Moves for College Football (Oct. 4)

I'm not so sure why people were so down on the Cincinnati Bearcats; as that line was dropping (got to 2 1/2 by game time) I was pounding it and I'm locked and loaded for today.

I was reading somewhere that if you pick at 52 percent you are even, 54 percent you are a winner, and over 58 percent you are a big winner.

So while we're not big winners yet, we're at least winners so far and I'm known for being a very strong finisher, especially in the final third of the season, which we're not even close to yet.

In order for us to get there, teams like BYU can't be putting on the brakes after stepping out to a gigantic lead where they are already covering. After Tulane last week, that's twice in two weeks we've been burned by the brakes.

In any event, I've been roasted worse, and with Cincinnati last night it was 1-1 in games, but I was much more loaded up on the Bearcats with a spread in our stratosphere.

On a side note, I had no idea there was a BYU channel on DirecTV until last night. I always thought those games were on the "Mountain Network." I guess you do learn something new every day.

For those of you who get my free newsletter, it went out last night. I appreciate all the feedback and hope this week's look is more to what everyone is looking for, including two winning picks (ND-Stanford & Iowa State-Kansas are the feature games).

I hope you guys have removed me from your SPAM block after last week's Georgia pick (actually I got zero returns, so it looks like the system is working, sort of).

As far as the newsletter, I am changing my distribution system next week, so you are going to get an email from me about clicking on a link so I can prove to a judge that you guys wanted to read my stuff (not so easy some weeks after some of the picks I've made) and I'm not some SPAM villain out there polluting the Internet and blogosphere. 

As you guys know and those who have been getting my free newsletter know, I hate SPAM as much as you do. I will never sell your e-mail or SPAM you.

I get a ton of SPAM as I have my email on my blog, which gets thousands of visitors a day. For those who want to sign up today, there's still time, and while I still manually end them out, I'll check a few times before kickoff, or you can shoot me an e-mail. Like I said, this whole process will be automated next week.

Now that I got that out of the way, let's talk about what we talk about every Saturday: the line moves on today's games.

The line on Iowa-Michigan State has dropped from MSU -8 to MSU -6 1/2. Since I'm flush with "Bearcat Gold" and with the line now under a touchdown, I'll take a small stab on the Spartans. I don't do full write ups about games on Saturdays, as there isn't a lot of time for everyone to read my blog post if I don't actually get it out there, but if you want to talk about it use the comments or forum.

The line in the Penn State-Purdue game has moved from opening at 11 1/2 to 14. I'm still just an observer. Frankly, it isn't the points, as if this one was 22 I would feel the same way. I think it's either an upset, close, or a blowout (wow, I'm brave), but I have no idea which one.

The line in the Arkansas-Florida game has gone from UF-22 to UF-24 1/2. I'm not touching it, but I will add that Arkansas stinks. I don't want to be on the wrong end of it when Bobby Petrino's kids start to get his system.

The Ohio-Western Michigan game has gone from WMU -4 to WMU -7. This is the type of game where either one of the big pickers who charge made this his "give away free" pick this week, or someone really knows something. Either way, I'm still sitting out, but a near doubling of the line is pretty eye opening.

The Kentucky-Alabama line has gone from UK +16 1/2 to UK +15. I gave my UK pick early and often because I figured the sharps would be pounding a three-score line in this one faster than Dean Martin used to pound Gin and Tonics. This probably goes even lower.

The line in the Navy-Air Force game has gone from Air Force -6 to Air Force -4 1/2. Can this be ripples from the Navy-Wake game last week? I don't care. I'm on the Falcons, so less is more as far as I'm concerned. I still like the under 2 1/2 hours including halftime in this one.

The Auburn-Vandy line has gone from Auburn -6 to Auburn -4, I guess people realized that in order to cover a six-point spread, you need to score more than six points. That's a reach for the Tigers this season.

The line in the Arizona-Washington game opened at Arizona -18 and is now at Arizona -24 1/2. Looks like a major Ty Willingham hate fest going on. How many of these bettors are Husky fans?

That's all for today. I'll be around all day watching games if you want to email me or post a comment with any ideas or questions. Let's make it a big day!

Visit Mitch anytime at his blog, The College Football Place