2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 100: Is Royals' Joakim Soria Due for a Regression?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Kansas City Royals’ closer Joakim Soria has become one of the most reliable relievers over the last three seasons.

Since 2008, he ranks in the top five among full-time closers (min. 150 innings) in many important statistical categories:

• Saves: 115 (fifth)
• ERA: 1.84 (second)
• WHIP: 1.01 (third)
• BB/9: 2.47 (fifth)

Soria also ranks 12th in strikeout rate (9.97) based on the same criteria.

Last year, Soria set career-highs in saves (43), strikeout rate (9.73) and walk rate (2.19). He also posted the fifth-lowest ERA (1.78) among full-time closers.

Soria’s xFIP (2.99) suggests a regression may be due in 2011, but advanced stats are much tougher to judge on relievers than they are on starters.

Perhaps his ERA will slip into the low twos, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t produce as a top-five closer.

	IP	SV	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	65.2	43	9.73	2.19	1.78	1.05
3-year average	62	38	9.97	2.47	1.84	1.01
2011 FBI Forecast	63	39	9.90	2.35	2.20	1.06

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• Nos. 71-80: Young, McGehee or Ramirez?
• Nos. 81-90: Upton, Young or Werth?
• No. 91: Brian Wilson
• No. 92: Carlos Marmol
• No. 93: Pedro Alvarez
• No. 94: Ben Zobrist
• No. 95: Nick Markakis
• No. 96: Colby Rasums
• No. 97: Curtis Granderson
• No. 98: Mike Stanton
• No. 99: Max Scherzer

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact