2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 79: Has Phillies' Roy Oswalt Returned To Ace Form?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

The 2008 and 2009 seasons suggested Roy Oswalt’s ace status had been stripped after proving to be the best pitcher in baseball not named Pedro or Johan from 2002 to 2007, posting a 7.26 K/9, 2.12 BB/9, 3.11 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 212 innings per year.

That being said, Oswalt did dominate the first half of 2010 in Houston, to the tune of a 3.42 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.

He was traded to the Phillies in late July and stepped his game up even further while continuing to show why he’s the best second-half pitcher in baseball. In 12 starts (82 2/3 innings) with Philadelphia, Oswalt posted a ridiculous 1.74 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 7.95 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9.

So, is that it? Should Oswalt be drafted as an elite starter in 2011?

Not quite.

Oswalt’s FIP (3.27) and xFIP (3.45) were slightly elevated in comparison to his season ERA of 2.76, but not enough to suggest he’ll implode in 2011; his career-low .253 BABIP, however, likely aided his performance.

A slight regression is likely on the cards for Oswalt this season, though his 2009 campaign (4.12 ERA, 3.13 career) was clearly an outlier.

Oswalt’s four-pitch arsenal was as good as it’s ever been last season, likely benefiting from the presence of teammates Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee:

• Fastball: 55.4 percent, 17.6 runs above average
• Slider: 14.8 percent, 5.7 runs above average
• Curveball: 14.7 percent, 7.3 runs above average
• Changeup: 15.1 percent, 7.1 runs above average

Don’t expect a strikeout rate above eight again, but his exceptional walk rate should help keep his WHIP under 1.20, while his ERA should settle in around 3.35.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	211.2	13	8.21	2.34	2.76	1.03
3-year average	200.2	13	7.42	2.15	3.44	1.18
2011 FBI Forecast	208	15	7.50	2.20	3.35	1.17

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• No. 71: Francisco Liriano
• No. 72: Tommy Hanson
• No. 73: Brian Roberts
• No. 74: Shane Victorino
• No. 75: Michael Young
• No. 76: Casey McGehee
• No. 77: Aramis Ramirez
• No. 78: Matt Cain

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact