2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 74: Will Phillies' Shane Victorino Bounce Back?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Shane Victorino posted a career-high 18 HRs in 2010, but his career-low .259 batting average is what’s scaring away fantasy managers this season. His current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 138, a far cry from where his three-year averages (see below) indicate he should be.

Victorino’s .273 BABIP last season suggests some poor luck, though his career-high fly-ball percentage (37.6 percent, career 35.1 percent) may indicate a slight change in his swing, not his luck. Fortunately, his batted ball rates weren’t too far off the norm, so a bounce-back performance in 2011 is within reason.

The Flyin’ Hawaiian’s 2011 value will rely heavily on his spot in the Phillies’ lineup. While over half his 2010 at-bats came in the leadoff spot, the switch-hitter is currently slated to bat fifth behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

Of course, if Utley’s knee injury shelves him for any significant amount of time, that could change. If not, Jimmy Rollins' struggles in recent seasons are likely to keep the Phillies' lineup a fluid situation.

For now, I’ll project Victorino as the No. 5 hitter. This will limit his run-scoring opportunities but should lead to a small spike in RBI. He’s likely to steal 25 to 35 steals, either way.

Victorino leads the third-tier of outfielders with unique 20/30 potential and won’t hurt your team’s batting average.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	648	84	18	69	34	.259
3-year average	656	96	14	63	32	.281
2011 FBI Forecast	650	85	15	80	30	.280

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Projections
• Nos. 51-60: Jimenez, Verlander, Carpenter or Sabathia?
• Nos. 61-70: Weaver, Haren or Latos?
• No. 71: Francisco Liriano
• No. 72: Tommy Hanson
• No. 73: Brian Roberts

Latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 MLB Team-By-Team Spring Training  Injury Report
• Adam Wainwright to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: Updated Pitcher Rankings
• Keeper Conundrum: Bryce Harper or Mike Trout?

30 Teams in 30 Days Fantasy Preview:

• Baltimore Orioles
• Boston Red Sox

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact