Daisuke Matsuzaka Is Badly Overdue To Deliver for Boston Red Sox in 2011

One of the best little news fragments to emerge recently from Red Sox spring training in Fort Myers, Fla., to me, was that Daisuke Matsuzaka is trying to alter his cut fastball and changeup to make them more effective in 2011.

Why? After four erratic years on the team, it's time for Matsuzaka to perform more consistently well in 2011. It's time for Matsuzaka to prove he can shed his habit of "nibbling" and, instead, pound the strike zone much more often. And it's time he simply tapped his considerable talents by staying in games longer than five innings and winning closer to 17 games rather than 10. 

So, I love hearing anything about Matsuzaka's conditioning or outlook that suggests he genuinely wants to improve. Reports from Fort Myers are that he's in terrific shape. On Mar. 4, Matsuzaka got roughed up in an outing against the Florida Marlins, but afterward explained he was working on his changeup and cutter, according to MLB.com.

"Matsuzaka wants his changeup to be firmer and lower in the zone...He is hoping to make his cutter a little harder also, with a bigger break," wrote Ian Browne in an article for MLB.com.

I recall when Matsuzaka first arrived in Boston, the speculation was that his changeup, which he threw with great success in Japan, might be a real "out" pitch for him with the Sox. But, as it turned out, Matsuzaka didn't even throw many changeups in that first 2007 season, and, even since then, he's thrown the changeup infrequently, in general. 

So, if he's now trying to find ways to re-establish that pitch, it may mean more than some think.  Expectations for Daisuke have dropped dramatically, and, it seems that even as the No. 5 starter, no one is expecting too much.

Many sportswriters and fans have harped on the need for Red Sox pitchers Josh Beckett and John Lackey to improve on their performances in 2010. Many others seem to expect last year's aces Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz to repeat their success this year. Few observers have emphasized the importance of Matsuzaka performing much better in 2011. Yet, given that seasons usually do not unfold as expected, it's reasonable to say that Matsuzaka's success may have a larger-than-expected impact on the team's fortunes.

I doubt both Lester and Buchholz will match their records of last year and I also doubt that both Beckett and Lackey will suddenly improve significantly. Who knows how the rotation will fare? Regardless of the outcome, it surely would help if Matsuzaka simply performed more closely to his potential and promise when the Red Sox signed him, with much hoopla, in 2007.  

Matsuzaka's win-loss record in 2007 was 15-12 with an ERA of 4.40. In 2008, he was 18-3 with an ERA of 2.90. In 2009, he was 4-6 with an ERA of 5.76 and in 2010, he went 9-6 with an ERA of 4.69.

All Sox observers know the Red Sox signed Matsuzaka, with much hoopla, in 2007 with first a successful $51.1 million bid for the right to negotiate with him, and then signed him to a six-year, $52 million contract. Matsuzaka, who has a no-trade clause, is entering the second-to-last year on his deal.

Many Sox fans have understandably lost faith in Dice K because of his pattern of repeated problems on the mound or arm troubles. Overall, Matsuzaka's control has been a major flaw. He walks too many hitters. When he gets behind in counts and has to throw his fastball, it often gets belted. Also, he has often failed to throw his breaking pitches for strikes. 

Yet, Matsuzaka has shown flashes of brilliance during his time in Boston. In May of 2010, for example, Matsuzaka had a no-hitter going versus the Phillies that ended after 8.2 innings. Sometimes, when his fastball has zip and he's throwing his curve, cutter or slider for strikes, he can become unhittable.

One positive sign: Last year, Matsuzka's average fastball was clocked at 92 mph, according to fangraphs.com, and, often, his heater reached 94 mph. If he can keep his velocity in this range in 2011, it could make the key difference in whether he succeeds. He must be able to throw his fastball when behind in the count without being shellacked.

Matsuzaka came to the Red Sox with much promise. He's endured some ups and downs, and surely it couldn't have always been easy for him to become acclimated to playing in Boston, with all the scrutiny from media and fans. I've read more than one report that Matsuzaka sometimes sort of keeps to himself, or, put another way, that he's not always treated as part of the pitchers' group. 

Whatever the truth, it seems certain that Matsuzaka would enjoy his second-to-last year in Boston more if he could start showing his stuff more and winning more games. In doing so, he'd share the responsibility with the four other guys in the rotation. Who knows? Maybe Daisuke could, miraculously, turn out to be one of the Red Sox's best pitchers in 2011!