Michael Vick: Philadephia Eagles QB Faces a Nearly Impossible Task Next Season

In electing to use the franchise tag on Michael Vick rather than sign him to a long-term contract, the Philadelphia Eagles threw down a very expensive gauntlet.

Basically, the Eagles challenged Vick to prove that his impressive quarterbacking last season was not a one-time fluke and was actually an accurate representation of his current ability level.

To complete the task the Eagles have given him, Vick will have to replicate a season unlike any other he has ever had in his NFL career.

In the 12 games last year in which Vick either attempted the most passes or threw for the most yards for Philadelphia, he completed 61.8 percent of his throws, gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt (8.4 adjusted) and 6.9 net yards per pass attempt (7.2 adjusted). Vick threw 22 touchdowns (5.5 touchdown percentage) and seven interceptions (1.7 interception percentage).

All of those statistics are career bests.

Even the most ardent Vick detractors have to admit Vick put on a pretty amazing passing display last season, a display made even more impressive and improbable when his other seasons are considered.

In order to determine just how much of a statistical outlier Vick's 2010 was, I compared it to four other seasons in which he was similarly the primary quarterback for at least 12 games. I found that there were statistically significant differences in at least two categories between his 2010 season and every other year.

For his 2002 season, which had been his best one, Vick's passing statistics were significantly inferior to his 2010 season in completion percentage (55.5 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (7.0 to 8.1) and adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.7 to 8.4).

Vick's 2004 season was significantly inferior in yards per pass attempt (7.1 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (6.2 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.5 to 6.9), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.8 to 7.2), interception percentage (3.7 percent to 1.7 percent) and sack percentage (12.2 percent to 8.4 percent).

In relation to 2010, Vick's 2005 statistics were significantly inferior in completion percentage (55.3 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (6.2 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.5 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.3 to 6.9), adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.6 to 7.2) and yards per completion (11.3 to 13.1).

Vick's 2006 saw him significantly inferior to 2010 in completion percentage (52.4 percent to 61.8 percent), yards per pass attempt (6.4 to 8.1), adjusted yards per pass attempt (5.9 to 8.4), net yards per pass attempt (5.1 to 6.9) and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (4.6 to 7.2).

There is simply no history to support the thinking that Vick will ever again have a season like the one he had in 2010, which is why the Eagles were smart not to commit to Vick for more than one more season.

If he's unable to duplicate his 2010 exploits, the Eagles will be able to release him and move on with a more reliable quarterbacking option.

If Vick is able to have another season of that caliber, which seems a virtual impossibility, given his track record, Philadelphia can move forward with a new contract, but not before knowing for sure what kind of quarterback Vick will be in the future.

Until he proves he can play that well again, however, it is best to treat Vick's season as one would any statistical outlier—that is, with extreme skepticism.

 

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