NFL Fantasy Football Mock Draft 2011: Rounds 1 and 2

The 2010 fantasy football season has completely repaved the landscape for the upcoming year.

Entering last year’s draft, there were six running backs who were labeled as elite: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ray Rice, Frank Gore and Michael Turner.

This year, Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, and Rashard Mendenhall all join them at the top, and suddenly there are almost enough stud backs to go around in 12-team leagues (almost—whoever takes Michael Vick will have to address this issue in later rounds).

Speaking of Vick, his remarkable maturation as a passer combined with his electrifying speed will likely result in one of the highest ADP’s for a quarterback in fantasy football, ever. If the 2011 season started tomorrow, here’s how a 12-team draft would likely go down:

ROUND 1

1. Arian Foster (RB, Houston Texans) – The man has no weakness. He has the speed to run outside and the power and discipline to run inside. He is an elite pass catcher. In PPR leagues, he averaged almost five fantasy points more than the next two fantasy backs. Five!

2. Adrian Peterson (RB, Minnesota Vikings) – AP finally addressed the biggest hole in his game and lost just one fumble last year after losing 13 in his first three. He’s never had less than 10 touchdowns in a season. Draft and enjoy.

3. Chris Johnson (RB, Tennessee Titans) – Just a year removed from his historic 2,000- yard season, CJ2K/Every Coaches' Dream finished the 2010 season with 1,609 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. What can I say, he had an off-year.

4. Michael Vick (QB, Philadelphia Eagles) – If he can stay healthy, he’ll rack up stats like a video game. If he stays healthy he has the potential to outscore your opponent’s three best players on any given week. If he can stay healthy, he redefines fantasy football. So what’s the common theme here?

5. LeSean McCoy (RB, Philadelphia Eagles) – With the departure of Brian Westbrook last year, McCoy was fully featured in Philadelphia and was an absolute beast. The Eagles will do everything they can to keep Vick healthy for the duration of the long season, which means Shady’s workload will only increase.

6. Darren McFadden (RB, Oakland Raiders) – McFadden is a dominant dual-threat in the backfield, but the concern here is his health (he has yet to play a full 16-game season) and his workload (he eclipsed 20 carries just four times last year).

7. Jamaal Charles (RB, Kansas City Chiefs) – Thomas Jones trudged his way to 896 yards on 245 carries while Charles amassed 1,467 yards on just 230 carries. Expect the younger and more-explosive Charles to get closer to 300 carries next season while Jones gets closer to 200.

8. Michael Turner (RB, Atlanta Falcons) – I’m almost 50/50 with Turner and Mendenhall here, but I’ll go with Turner’s proven track record. Mendenhall was a force last year with 13 touchdowns, but Burner has averaged that mark over his last three (even missing five games in ‘09).

9. Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers) – Few running backs are as featured as Mendenhall is in Pittsburgh, so I see no reason why not to expect similar numbers in 2011.

10. Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay Packers) – He ranked second behind Vick in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks, but his athleticism puts him a hair above Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers. Rodgers will mark the end of the elite top-tier running backs.

11. Ray Rice (RB, Baltimore Ravens) – His significant drop in production last year drops him out of the elite, but he’s still one of the top pass-catchers out of the backfield, and should still be a stud in PPR leagues. Vick and Rodgers are the only quarterbacks I’m taking before Rice.

12. Frank Gore (RB, San Francisco 49ers) – The fact that you’ll be able to get backs like Rice, Jones-Drew, and Gore in the second round shows just how deep this position is becoming. Gore has undeniable skill and versatility, but touchdowns are hard to come by in San Francisco. He also seems to have adapted the wrong part of Brian Westbrook’s game—his health.

ROUND 2

13. Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars) – Recent news on Mojo has revealed that his knee had deteriorated to “bone on bone” last year. This suggests that he may have required microfracture surgery, which should hurt Mojo’s average draft position, suddenly making him a high-risk high-reward option.

14. Andre Johnson (WR, Houston Texans) – Andre was running for most of last year on one ankle, and still averaged the most fantasy points per game among wide receivers. Next year, he’ll have two ankles again.

15. Roddy White (WR, Atlanta Falcons) – With the impressive development of Matt Ryan, White has elevated himself to Andre Johnson’s level of fantasy dominance. After the year he had last year, nobody will blame you for taking him over Andre if you so choose.

16. Calvin Johnson (WR, Detroit Lions) – Megatron has the skills and physical tools to hang with Andre and Roddy, and if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy next year, he’ll have the stats to hang with them too.

17. Peyton Manning (QB, Indianapolis Colts) – You can bet on the 4,000 yards and you can bet on the 30 touchdowns. But most importantly, you can bet on the 16 games played. It doesn’t get safer than Peyton Manning in fantasy sports.

18. Drew Brees (QB, New Orleans Saints) – When Pierre Thomas went down last year, the hole he left in the Saints' running game allowed defenses to focus in on Brees, resulting in his uncharacteristic 22 picks. Still, it’s hard to complain about 4,620 yards and 33 touchdowns.

19. Philip Rivers (QB, San Diego Chargers) – Rivers was elite again, and he did it with peanuts for most of the year. Imagine the numbers he’ll put up in 16 games with Vincent Jackson, Malcom Floyd (if he’s re-signed), and Antonio Gates (if he gets healthy).

20. Tom Brady (QB, New England Patriots) – Brady had an absolutely pristine statistical season, but history says that was closer to an aberration than the norm. He isn’t quite a slam dunk for 30 touchdowns like Rodgers, Manning, Brees, and Rivers all are (2010 was just his second 30-TD season), but he’s still a top-tier quarterback.

21. Hakeem Nicks (WR, New York Giants) – The looming question mark of whether his health permits him to put together a full 16-game season is the only thing keeping him from the ranks of Andre, Roddy and Megatron.

22. Tony Romo (QB, Dallas Cowboys) – He’ll be fully recovered next year to have the season he was supposed to have last year, or possibly even better, with Dez Bryant’s development and Jason Garrett’s play-calling.

23. Dwayne Bowe (WR, Kansas City Chiefs) – Here’s another case where history tells us not to expect the same big numbers. But 13 touchdowns over seven games—that’s a streak only true No. 1 wide receivers can put together.

24. Steven Jackson (RB, St. Louis Rams) – He’s starting to lose steam, and has only recorded more than 10 touchdowns once in seven years. But if S-Jax can manage to stay healthy, he’ll be one of the few backs in the league with a crack at 300 carries.