ACC Bubble Watch for Week of February 27

This article is also featured at All About Sports

Virginia Tech came through with the win they had to have by beating the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday. That put the Hokies on the right side of the bubble. Florida State is proving they are tournament worthy even without Chris Singleton and North Carolina is the hottest team in the ACC.

There are four teams I feel pretty good about. Is there room for one more?

A good win is any win over the RPI Top 100, and a bad loss is any loss to a team ranked higher than the RPI 125.

RPIs come from cbssportsline.com (realtimerpi.com didn’t update Sunday, so I had to go elsewhere)

Locks

(5) Duke Blue Devils 26-3 (12-2)   

The Blue Devils had a strong 78-61 win over a good Temple team Wednesday, but ran into a Virginia Tech squad Saturday that was fighting for its NCAA life and lost 64-60. Duke can still get a No. 1 seed, but I think they’ll have to win out all the way through the ACCT to do it.             

Next Games: 3/2 Clemson, 3/5 @North Carolina

Good Wins: (51) Princeton, (55) Marquette, (25) Kansas St., (38) Michigan St., (46) Butler, (68) Miami, (32) UAB, (81) Maryland, (44) Boston College, (81) Maryland, (12) North Carolina, (68) Miami, (30) Temple

Bad Losses: None

(12) North Carolina Tar Heels 22-6 (12-2)

The Heels took shot after shot from NC State but still won in Raleigh 75-63. They played extremely well in spurts against Maryland Sunday night and won 87-76. With the Duke loss, UNC can claim the No. 1 seed in the ACCT if they win their final two games.

Next Games: 3/2 @Florida State, 3/5 Duke 

Good Wins: (82) Hofstra, (74) Charleston, (92) Long Beach St., (16) Kentucky, (52) Virginia Tech, (69) Clemson, (69) Miami, (44) Boston College (48) Florida State, (69) Clemson, (44) Boston College, (81) Maryland

Bad Losses: (181) Georgia Tech 

(48) Florida State Seminoles 20-8 (10-4)

You might have thought the Noles were leaking water after a 78-62 loss to Maryland, but they came through with a solid 65-59 win over Miami and are in good shape for the NCAAs.

Next Games: 3/2 North Carolina, 3/6 @NC State

Good Wins: (69) Clemson, (77) Baylor, (5) Duke, (68) Miami, (44) Boston College, (68) Miami

Bad Losses: (273) Auburn 

Should be In

(52) Virginia Tech Hokies 19-8 (9-5)

In less than a week, the Hokies went from "Bubble but Out" to "Should be In." That’s what a win over the Duke Blue Devils will do for you. There was also a nice-looking 76-62 win at Wake Forest. One more victory and they’ll be a lock for me.

Next Games: 3/1 Boston College, 3/5 @Clemson

Good Wins: (65) Oklahoma St, (55) Penn St., (48) Florida St., (81) Maryland, (68) Miami, (81) Maryland, (5) Duke

Bad Losses: (146) Virginia, (181) Georgia Tech, (146) Virginia

Bubble But In: None

Bubble But Out

(44) Boston College Eagles 17-11 (7-7)

Boston College surprised me a little bit. After a disastrous 73-64 loss to Miami at home, BC won by 19 at Virginia to stay on the fringe of the bubble. If they can win at Virginia Tech it would do wonders for their NCAA resume.  

Next Games: 3/1 @Virginia Tech, 3/6 Wake Forest

Good Wins: (29) Texas A&M, (67) California, (81) Maryland, (85) Bucknell, (52) Virginia Tech, (81) Maryland

Bad Losses: (153) Yale

(69) Clemson Tigers 19-9 (8-6)

Clemson took care of business in their only game of the week with 63-49 win over Wake Forest. The Tigers have a shot at the NCAAs, but if they go 0-2 this week they’ll be NIT-bound.

Next Games: 3/2 @Duke, 3/5 Virginia Tech

Good Wins: (74) Charleston, (68) Miami, (48) Florida State, (44) Boston College, (66) Miami, (92) Long Beach St., (96) Seton Hall 

Bad Losses: (146) Virginia

(81) Maryland Terrapins 18-11 (7-7)            

Realistically, 1-1 was about the best Maryland could hope for this week. They beat Florida State 78-62, but then lost 87-76 at UNC. The Terps are fighting a high RPI, and lack of quality wins. They have a lot of work to do. They probably have to win three more games to really get on the bubble.

Next Games: 3/2 @Miami, 3/5 Virginia

Good Wins: (74) Charleston, (55) Penn St., (69) Clemson, (48) Florida St.

Bad Losses: None

Better Win the ACC Tournament

(68) Miami Hurricanes 17-12 (5-9)

Miami won’t make the NCAAs, but they are doing a good job of playing spoiler. They won at Boston College 73-64 putting the Eagles in a dicey position. They then lost to Florida State 65-59. Miami is the one bottom five ACC team that can really cause some havoc down the stretch.

Next Games: 3/2 Maryland, 3/6 @Georgia Tech

Good Wins: (70) Mississippi, (19) West Virginia, (44) Boston College, (44) Boston College

Bad Losses: None

(102) North Carolina State Wolfpack  15-13 (5-9)

The Pack isn’t playing that poorly. I thought they competed well against UNC in a 12-point loss, but just got outgunned. They came back with a 79-74 over a reeling Georgia Tech team.

Next Games: 3/1 @Virginia, 3/6 Florida St.

Good Wins: (22) George Mason, (68) Miami, (69) Clemson

Bad Losses: None

(144) Virginia Cavaliers 14-14 (5-9)

After the Cavs won 62-56 at Georgia Tech, I expected them to play better when Boston College came to Charlottesville. They lost 63-44 and went ice-cold in the second half. They can still improve their ACCT seeding by having a good week.

Next Games: 3/1 NC State, 3/5 @Maryland

Good Wins: (61) Minnesota, (52) Virginia Tech, (69) Clemson, (52) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses: (139) Stanford, (271) Seattle, (139) Iowa St, (251) Wake Forest

(181) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 11-17 (3-11)

The Yellow Jackets haven’t won an ACC game in more than four weeks. They lost at home to Virginia by six and by five at NC State this past week. It is tough to find positives about anything going on in Atlanta right now.

Next Games: 3/3 @Wake Forest, 3/6 Miami

Good Wins: (70) UTEP, (62) Richmond, (12) North Carolina, (52) Virginia Tech

Bad Losses: (321) Kennesaw St, (193) Siena, (216) Charlotte, (146) Virginia, (146) Virginia

(251) Wake Forest Demon Deacons  8-21 (1-13)

It’s another week and another couple of more losses for Wake Forest. There were two 14-point losses to Virginia Tech and Clemson. With Georgia Tech coming to Wake Forest this week, the Deacs have a legitimate shot at their second ACC win.

Next Games: 3/3 Georgia Tech, 3/6 @Boston College

Good Wins: None

Bad Losses: (305) Stetson, (220) Winthrop, (204) NC Wilmington, (203) Presbyterian, (181) Georgia Tech