Maryland Basketball: Win Over Florida State Puts Terrapins Back On The Bubble

The Maryland Terrapins managed to keep their faint NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a 78-62 victory of Florida State, Wednesday night.

Following the win, the Terps seem to be in bubble limbo; depending on your bracketologist of choice, the Terps are somewhere between the outside of the bubble looking in and just barely hanging on.

However, with an upcoming trip to Chapel Hill, Maryland has a chance to vault itself back into the field of 68. A win over North Carolina gives the Terps the marquee win it has failed to notch thus far.

Currently, the Terps have an RPI of 81 with 5 wins against the top-100 and no losses outside the top-75. Against numbers 51 through 75, the teams Maryland will be competing against for an at-large berth, the Terrapins are a solid 4-2.

But bracketologists point to Maryland’s lack of big wins to discount their tournament credentials. But compared to ESPN’s last two teams they have making the field of 68, Maryland’s best wins are comparable. Butler’s best wins are against Cleveland State, Valparaiso and Florida State; meanwhile, Memphis’ best wins have come against UAB, Southern Miss and Marshall. Are any of those wins any better than Maryland’s wins over Florida State, Clemson and Penn State?

I don’t think so.

At the very least, Maryland should be squarely on the bubble.

But what do they have to do to go dancing this coming March?

Here’s a look at the remaining schedule:

Date	Opponent	RPI
2/27	North Carolina	15
3/2	@Miami	77
3/5	Virginia	146
3/10-13	ACC Tournament	--

Obviously, Maryland cannot afford to drop the games against Miami and Virginia, but can they take a loss to North Carolina and still get a berth?

That would put Maryland at 20-11 overall and 9-7 in the ACC with six wins against the RPI top-100 going into the ACC Tournament, where they would likely get the fifth seed, which would pit them against last-place Wake Forest in the first round.

A win against Wake would put Maryland at 21-11 with a matchup against Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals. That would give the Terps a chance to beat another bubble team and get another top-100 win, putting them at seven for the season. It would also set up a game with Duke in the semis. A win against the Devils would undoubtedly put Maryland in the NCAA Tournament.

Improbable?

Yes.

Impossible?

No.

So really, a win against North Carolina is not exactly a must, but it will certainly make things a lot easier.

For one, Maryland would not have to make it to the semis and beat Duke to secure a berth, and Maryland may not even have to be the Hokies in the quarterfinals, either.

A win at North Carolina and wins against both Miami and Virginia would put the Terps at 22-10 overall and 10-6 in the ACC with 8 top-100 wins and no losses outside of the top-65. Add in a sure-win against Wake in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and the Terps should be a tournament lock at 23-10 going into the game against Virginia Tech in the quarters. From there, everything else would just be about seeding.

So while North Carolina poses a huge threat to Maryland’s NCAA Tournament chances, it also will serve as an even bigger opportunity.

Quick Observations from the Florida State Victory

-Maryland’s terrific ball movement was the key to the Terps’ 52 percent shooting night against one of the best defenses in the country.

-As I predicted, the zone gave Florida State trouble; after Gary Williams went to the 3-2 zone, Maryland went on a 18-8 run and never relinquished the lead.

-Dino Gregory does not want his senior season to end in the NIT; Cliff Tucker needs to take notice.

-Terrell Stoglin’s 17-point performance may have been his most impressive yet. Derwin Kitchen is one of the better defenders in the ACC, and the freshman was still able to put up a decent amount of points and assists in a high-pressure game.

-While Sean Mosley’s offensive numbers have regressed, he has gotten better defensively in his junior season.

-If Maryland shoots the three well, they are a sweet-sixteen caliber team.