Adam Wainwright Injures Elbow, Could Be Done for the Season

What happened this morning is proof as to why naming Opening Day starters before the first pitch is even thrown in spring training is a pointless exercise.

Anything can happen from now until Opening Day and for the St. Louis Cardinals, the worst possible thing has happened.

Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said Wednesday that staff ace Adam Wainwright is going back to St. Louis to have the ligament in his right elbow examined.

The Cardinals believe the injury is “significant,” and Tommy John surgery is likely.

The Cardinals will get a second opinion on Wainwright's elbow Thursday from Dr. Lewis Yocum, but this doesn’t sound good at all.

The irony of all this is that Wainwright was examined in November and tests showed he had no structural damage in his elbow; I guess the Cardinals were using the New York Mets’ team doctors.

If Wainwright is toast for the year, this would be a massive, massive blow to the Cardinals' playoff hopes.

Because Wainwright pitches in the Midwest, I don’t think people realize how good he really is. Over the last three years, Wainwright is second amongst all pitchers in ERA (2.68) and 11th in WAR (14.1). His 14.1 WAR over this time frame is higher than Ryan Braun's, Troy Tulowitzki's and Josh Hamilton's.

Bottom line: It would be impossible for the Cardinals to replace Wainwright. But it looks like they are going to have to start making plans to replace him, so how do they do it?

Right now, there are six candidates to replace Wainwright internally. These legends are Kyle McClellan, Kyle Lohse, P.J. Walters, Lance Lynn, Ian Snell and Adam Ottavino.

The guy out of that group who has the most upside is Lynn. He was the Cardinals’ first round pick in the 2008 draft and in three minor league seasons, he is 25-15 with a 3.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and an average of 7.8 K/9 in 339.1 IP.

However, Lynn is pretty raw and the Cardinals are in win-now mode. Depending on who pitches better in spring training, the Cardinals may go with the more experienced pitcher in McClellan or Lohse.

Externally, the St. Louis’ options are slim. There’s Kevin Millwood, who looks pretty smart right now after rejecting the New York Yankees’ offer last week, but he is more of an innings eater at this point in his career than anything else.

There’s also Jarrod Washburn, but he hasn’t pitched in a major league game in an over a year.

One issue the Cardinals have in replacing Wainwright externally is that their minor league system outside of a couple of solid prospects is pretty bare. It would be hard for them to go out and get a guy like Fausto Carmona because they don’t have much to offer.

This injury is significant enough to change the landscape of the National League Central, so we’ll update this story as it further develops.

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