2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 49: Will Zack Greinke Return to Cy Young Form?

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Zack Greinke has been a tough pitcher to figure out in recent seasons. After battling depression early in his career, Greinke has posted ERAs of 3.47, 2.16 and 4.17 in the last three seasons.

In 2009, his Cy Young Award-winning campaign, Greinke’s 2.16 ERA was the lowest among qualified starters since Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 ERA in 2005.

Greinke’s strikeout rates have been inconsistent as well, ranging from 7.40 and 8.14 in 2010 and 2008, respectively, to 9.50 in 2009. His walk rates, however, have been consistently good, ranging from 2.00 to 2.49 in recent seasons.

So what can we expect in 2011?

First of all, it’s important to note Greinke is now pitching for the Milwaukee Brewers in the N.L Central opposed to the Kansas City Royals in the A.L. Central. His numbers against National League batters since 2008 are quite encouraging: 7-2, 8.23 K/9, 1.57 BB/9, 3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP.

Greinke has never started a game at Miller Park.

Most experts are predicting a monster season for Greinke in 2011, judging by rankings from Yahoo! composite (42) Mock Draft Central ADP (50.20), and Rotowire (24). It’s tough to argue with this prediction, as Greinke’s LOB rate (65.3 percent), FIP (3.34) and xFIP (3.76) suggest he was much better last season than his 4.17 ERA indicates.

Greinke’s 2009 and 2010 seasons are likely his ceiling and floor. Expect something in the middle, similar to his 2008 totals, this season.

	IP	W	K/9	BB/9	ERA	WHIP
2010 stats	220	10	7.40	2.25	4.17	1.25
Three-Year Average	217.1	13	8.37	2.24	3.25	1.19
2011 FBI Forecast	221	15	8.30	2.20	3.30	1.16

IMAGE COURTESY OF: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
• No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
• No. 42: Alex Rios
• No. 43: Brian McCann
• No. 44: Drew Stubbs
• No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
• No. 46: Andre Ethier
• No. 47: Martin Prado
• No. 48: Cole Hamels

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options