MLB Fantasy Baseball Profile: Can You Trust Vernon Wells in 2011?

Ryan Lester

Feb 15, 2011

Vernon Wells was finally healthy last year and smacked 30 plus home runs for the first time since 2006. He finished with a solid .273-79-31-88-6 line. I certainly wouldn’t say at 32 that it would be hard to match those power numbers, but he does have some things working against him.

For starters, he went from a team that lived and died by the long ball. Jose Bautista hit .260 with 54 HRs. Aaron Hill hit .205 with 26 HRs. Adam Lind hit .237 with 23 HRs. Edwin Encarnacion hit .244 with 20 HRs. Lyle Overbay hit .243 with 20 HRs. The Angels don’t rely on the long ball like Toronto does so Wells won’t be swinging for the fences as often.

The Angels scored 74 fewer runs and smacked 102 fewer home runs. Part of it is simply the ball park factor. The Rogers Centre ranked fourth with a 1.358 HR ball park factor while Angel Stadium of Anaheim ranked 23rd with a .825 factor.

Does that mean Vernon Wells will see a dip in his home run total? My guess is yes, but not significantly, and while he declines in HRs, he’ll likely gain in stolen bases.

Wells had just six stolen bases in 2010, but had 17 in 2009 and has been in double-digits in three of the past five seasons. The Angels are much more inclined to turn their baserunners loose having stolen 46 more bases last year.

Wells started off the year on a tear hitting 19 home runs in the first three months. He cooled off in the summer, combining for four HRs in July and August. Concerns might have crept in, but he responded with eight in September.

The injuries are a concern but, aside from 2008, he’s been able to play through them for the most part. He’s not too big of a risk in fantasy drafts as he’s going as the 28th outfielder and 101st overall according to Mock Draft Central.

I do understand that given his injury history and the move to Anaheim are causes for concern for Vernon Wells, I think he’s a solid outfielder option that is capable of a .280-85-25-90-15 line.