2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 39: Andrew McCutchen Is a Poor Man's Carl Crawford

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Andrew McCutchen followed up his promising 2009 rookie campaign with 16 HRs, 33 steals and a .286 batting average last year for the Pirates.

In addition to his speed, McCutchen also offers above average plate discipline:

• 2010 Walk rate: 10.7 percent (MLB average 8.5 percent)
• 2010 Strikeout rate: 15.6 percent (MLB average 20.7 percent)
• 2010 O-Swing rate: 20.0 percent (MLB average 29.3 percent)
• 2010 Contact rate: 84.6 percent (MLB average 80.7 percent)

McCutchen also improved his effectiveness against curveballs last season, something that previously plagued him dating back to his minor league days:

• 2009: 2.8 runs below average vs. curveballs
• 2010: 7.4 runs above average vs. curveballs

Unfortunately, McCutchen hasn’t developed the power that scouts once thought he had. His fantasy upside, however, is that of a poor man’s Carl Crawford.

• 2010 McCutchen: 653 PA, 94 runs, 16 HRs, 56 RBI, 33 SB, .286 BA
• 3-YR AVG Crawford: 663 PA, 110 runs, 19 HRs, 90 RBI, 47, .307 BA

Given an improving Pittsburgh lineup, McCutchen should see a spike in his run-scoring and run-producing totals this season. Still only 24 years old, however, 20-plus HRs remain unlikely.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	653	94	16	56	33	.286
3-year average	382	56	9	37	18	.286
2011 FBI Forecast	670	105	18	65	35	.288

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee
• No. 34: Nelson Cruz
• No. 35: Jason Heyward
• No. 36: Justin Upton
• No. 37: Josh Johnson
• No. 38: Ian Kinsler

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options