MLB Predictions: New York Yankees Position by Position Hitting Projections
"Pitching wins championships." That's what most people say, anyway. But even the best pitching can't help a team if there's no offense to back him up. A perfect example is this past year's AL Cy Young Award-winner, Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners' offense is the worst in the American League, so despite King Felix's minuscule 2.27 ERA, he only posted a record of 13-12. If the award was called "Most Valuable Pitcher," Hernandez wouldn't have stood a chance. His offense would have destroyed any chance at him winning such an honor.
So then, wouldn't you agree, maybe the offense doesn't get enough credit. Another perfect example, in 2010 the Texas Rangers ran away with the AL West title before making it all the way to the World Series. Now, some of you are probably saying, "Dude, they had Cliff Lee," but remember when they got Cliff Lee? It was midseason, and he didn't even pitch well for them in the regular season. It was Lee's excellent postseason that left the Rangers throwing lucrative contracts for him once he became a free agent.
Aside from Lee, who pitched for the Rangers last season? Their ace was a converted reliever in C.J. Wilson. Following him in the Texas rotation were Colby Lewis, Tommy Hunter, Scott Feldman, and ... Derek Holland? Honestly, I don't even remember, because it wasn't about the rotation, it was about Texas' explosive lineup, stacked with power and average threats like Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Vladimir Guerrero, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young. As long as they got decent starts (5-6 innings, 4-5 runs), the Rangers had a chance to win, and they did.
The Rangers' offense was great last year, but this year (and in my opinion last year too) the Yankees' offense is (was) better. I believe a lot of the Yankees' hitters are going to have great seasons this year. God knows the talent is there, it just needs to be used appropriately to offset the lack of reliable pitchers. In this article, I am going to predict how I think each Yankee could hit, and how each will hit this season. In other words, I'm going to predict which Yankees will be hot, and which will be cold.
Catcher: Russell Martin
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How He COULD Do: .285 Batting Average, 18 Home Runs, 77 RBI (in around 130 games)
How He WILL Do: .248 Batting Average, 5 Home Runs, 24 RBI (in around 40 games)
I am one of the believers that the Martin signing will be a failure for the Yankees. Sure he had three pretty good seasons with the Dodgers from 2006-2008, but it looks like playing in 427 games over that span, plus another 143 in a dismal 2009, really took its toll on Martin. He has suffered multiple injuries since then, and his performance has suffered.
Brian Cashman and the Yankees seem to feel he is going to bounce back and post the above numbers and he has started off hot, but I still have my doubts. In fact, unless he does a great job handling the pitching staff, I don't even think he'll make it through June as the starting catcher.
Catcher (Part 2): Jesus Montero
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How He COULD Do: .315 Batting Average, 25 Home Runs, 85 RBI (in around 135 games)
How He WILL Do: .288 Batting Average, 20 Home Runs, 70 RBI (in around 115 games)
At least the Yankees have this guy waiting if I'm right about Martin. Jesus Montero is the Yankees' most highly-touted prospect, and was ranked the #9 overall prospect in the MLB's Top 50 Prospects ranking. Montero went through an adjustment period after his promotion to Triple-A last season, but he warmed up by midseason, hitting .340 with 15 home runs and 43 RBI from July onward, finishing up at .289/21/75.
I think that when Martin starts to struggle and the Yankees brass looks down at Montero at Triple-A, they'll be ready to do just about anything to start getting some production from the catching position, and that's when Montero will get his call up. Mark my words, once he reaches the big leagues, he won't look back.
First Baseman: Mark Teixeira
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How He COULD Do: .320 Batting Average, 45 Home Runs, 140 RBI
How He WILL Do: .293 Batting Average, 40 Home Runs, 127 RBI
Mark Teixeira knew when he signed that 8-year, $180 million deal in 2008 that he would be counted on to produce as the newest Bomber. In 2009, he did almost everything the Yankees could have hoped for, hitting .292 with 39 homers and 108 RBI. He also won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger, and finished second in the AL MVP race (to Twins' catcher, Joe Mauer, who hit .365).
However, last year, Teixeira had the worst start of his career, and despite another late season surge, could not overcome the April-May damage and finished with a line of .256/33/108. Not great, but a player of Teixeira's caliber is very unlikely to have back-to-back off-years, so I predict another MVP-type performance from Tex in 2011, especially since he knows his team is going to need him now more than ever.
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Second Baseman: Robinson Cano
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How He COULD Do: .335 Batting Average, 35 Home Runs, 130 RBI
How He WILL Do: .316 Batting Average, 32 Home Runs, 110 RBI
Robinson Cano has quickly established himself as one of the absolute best players in the MLB, and he's done it playing on the same team as, Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, and Derek Jeter. He is the best-hitting second baseman in baseball, and may just be in the top five best overall players in the game right now. He has had two straight MVP-caliber seasons, and there is no reason to believe he's going to slow down anytime soon. His power stroke is a thing of beauty, and in the lefty-friendly Yankee Stadium, if his home run totals don't continue to increase, I'll be shocked. On top of that, he is going to be a hands-down Gold Glove winner for the next few seasons. In my opinion, Cano, not Teixeira, should be the Yankees' three-hole hitter, and after seeing my prediction for Teixeira, that speaks volumes.
Third Baseman: Alex Rodriguez
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How He COULD Do: .320 Batting Average, 44 Home Runs, 145 RBI
How He WILL Do: .290 Batting Average, 37 Home Runs, 132 RBI
What can I say about A-Rod? Despite the start of his imminent decline, Rodriguez is still one of the most productive hitters in all of baseball. Does he still have the ability to hit .300-plus, crush 40 or more, and knock in 145 in a season? Yes, he does. However, is it realistic to expect this every year? No, it isn't.
What we can expect, though, is some extraordinary "minimums." At minimum, he will hit .270 with 30 homers and 100 RBI every single year, without fail. Even if, come September, it doesn't look like he will, he will find a way. We've witnessed it happen the past two years. As a Yankees fan, one of my favorite moments of that epic 2009 season was the last game of the regular season, when A-Rod hit two home runs, a three-run and a grand slam—in ONE inning—to bring his stats to a round 30 homers and 100 RBI.
So, I predict A-Rod to have an decent year in 2011, which is considered a great year for most other players.
Shortstop: Derek Jeter
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How He COULD Do: .325 Batting Average, 18 Home Runs, 78 RBI
How He WILL Do: .303 Batting Average, 12 Home Runs, 66 RBI
There's no use denying it, Derek Jeter actually had the worst season of his career last year, after having the best season of his career the year before. Jeter only managed to hit .270/10/67 in 2010, by far the worst numbers he's ever posted. However, despite criticism and predictions that Jeter is officially in the decline and that we cannot expect another .300 batting average out of him, I believe in the captain.
I have no doubts that Jeter will hit .300 again, although I do agree with the critics when it comes to his power stroke. I think Jeter's days of hitting 15-20 home runs are over, but anywhere between 10 and 13 is a reasonable guess. Jeter is also probably not the best suited for the leadoff position any longer, as there is a bright young star emerging somewhere out in left field that nobody saw coming.
Left Fielder: Brett Gardner
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How He COULD Do: .318 Batting Average, 8 Home Runs, 70 RBI, 75 Stolen Bases
How He WILL Do: .291 Batting Average, 4 Home Runs, 61 RBI, 65 Stolen Bases
Brett Gardner, despite the insistence from his manager that he would not be, is in fact the Yankees' primary leadoff man. He will hit leadoff against righties (the majority of pitchers) and ninth against lefties with Jeter moving to the first spot in the lineup. This, in my opinion, is a great decision by Joe Girardi, and I have to give the guy credit for essentially admitting his preseason decision was wrong and for doing what is best for the team.
Gardner is the stereotypical leadoff hitter. He hits for average, gets on base, and can easily steal a base or two once there. That base-stealing ability will be doubly important with the hitter behind him, Derek Jeter, having a history of hitting into double plays. All of a sudden, a pathetic ground-ball double-play has turned into a productive out, with Gardner at third base with one out, in prime position to score. Last year, before being hit in the wrist with a pitch from Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, Brett Gardner was leading the Yankees in hitting and looked like he was going to have a .300-plus batting average by year's end. After his spring showing, I think this year will end up exactly how last year should have, except with Gardner swiping another 15-20 bags.
Centerfielder: Curtis Granderson
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How He COULD Do: .304 Batting Average, 45 Home Runs, 110 RBI, 40 SB
How He WILL Do: .292 Batting Average, 40 Home Runs, 100 RBI, 25 SB
Curtis Granderson had, for the most part, a miserable first season in pinstripes. He landed on the DL for a month with a groin strain, and even when he did play, he couldn't do anything with left-handed pitchers. However, he finally buckled down and let Yankees' hitting coach Kevin Long revamp his swing late in the season, and enjoyed a great September and October until the Yankees were eliminated by the Rangers in the ALCS.
After what I saw last year, along with what I have seen this spring, I honestly believe Granderson is going to have a career year in 2011. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Granderson, not Teixeira, A-Rod, or Cano, is the Yankee that makes a run at the AL MVP this season. And I truly wouldn't be surprised if he actually won it, either. I know this might seem a little far-fetched, but there is always someone who goes above and beyond our expectations (see Jose Bautista, 2010), and this season, I have a good feeling about Curtis Granderson.
Right Fielder: Nick Swisher
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How He COULD Do: .295 Batting Average, 32 Home Runs, 90 RBI
How He WILL Do: .278 Batting Average, 30 Home Runs, 84 RBI
Nick Swisher had a career year in 2010, earning his first All-Star appearance, so there is reason to believe he won't at least partially continue to hit at the same level. His batting average in 2010 was a career-high at .288, so I figure Swish will hit somewhere in between his '09 and '10 numbers. He could absolutely hit somewhere around .300, but it's fairly unlikely.
I expect Swisher to hit in the upper .270's and to finally reach the 30-homer mark for the first time as a Yankee, especially with the added responsibility of the 6-hole in the Yankees' lineup, backing up Robinson Cano.
Designated Hitter: Jorge Posada
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How He COULD Do: .305 Batting Average, 25 Home Runs, 90 RBI
How He WILL Do: .284 Batting Average, 21 Home Runs, 78 RBI
In what wound up being his final year as a catcher, Jorge Posada had one of his worst offensive years in recent history, hitting .248 with 18 HR and 57 RBI in 120 games. Many people believe, however, that this was mainly due to the wear and tear of catching on a 39-year-old body that could no longer take it. So, with Posada's transition to an everyday DH complete, expect to see at least some increase in his offensive stats.
There is no reason to believe that the Posada that hit .338 with 20 HR and 90 RBI in 2007 is completely gone, especially now that his main focus is on hitting (as well as mentoring Martin and the young catchers). Jorgie could hit over .300 again, but you are probably setting yourself up for disappointment if you're expecting it to happen. In my opinion, Posada will have a decent year, and a great one for a number 7- or 8-hitter in New York's lineup.
Bench: SS Eduardo Nunez
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How He COULD Do: .300 Batting Average, 5 Home Runs, 25 RBI (in around 85 games)
How He WILL Do: .275 Batting Average, 3 Home Runs, 22 RBI (in around 80 games)
Eduardo Nunez will pretty much do what is expected of him this season as the backup for Jeter and Cano in the middle of the Yankees' infield. He is projected as a possible replacement for Jeter as the starting shortstop a few years down the road, so obviously he's no slouch at the plate. He doesn't have bad power capabilities, but in limited action, don't expect much out of him in that department this year. Nunez is on the major league roster for his glove and his legs, not his bat.
Bench: 3B Eric Chavez
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How He COULD Do: .300 Batting Average, 20 Home Runs, 70 RBI (in around 85 games)
How He WILL Do: .280 Batting Average, 13 Home Runs, 52 RBI (in around 70 games)
Eric Chavez has resurrected his career with the New York Yankees, and you can bet that as thankful as he must be for the opportunity in New York, he will want to earn himself a starting job elsewhere next year with a good season off the bench in 2011. Chavez had an amazing spring training to secure himself the job of backup for A-Rod and Teixeira, and provides the Yankees with a legitimate power bat off the bench, along with the Yankees' new fourth outfielder.
Bench: OF Andruw Jones
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How He COULD Do: .265 Batting Average, 28 Home Runs, 80 RBI (in around 400 AB)
How He WILL Do: .238 Batting Average, 20 Home Runs, 52 RBI (in around 300 AB)
Andruw Jones was signed by the Yankees this offseason to serve as the right-handed, lefty-mashing fourth outfielder to replace either Gardner or Granderson against lefties. One thing is certain; Jones will hit his share of home runs, even in limited action. This guy has some serious power, and feasts off of left-handed pitching, so he is effectively replacing Marcus Thames from last year's squad. The difference is that Andruw boasts 10 Gold Glove Awards on his resume, leaving no questions about his defensive abilities. However, Jones is there to hit lefties, and count on him to hit them hard this season.
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