2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 34: Draft Nelson Cruz Before Heyward and Upton

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Nelson Cruz finally shed his “Quadruple-A” nickname in 2009, crushing 33 HR and swiping 20 bases for the Texas Rangers. He followed up with a 2010 campaign that included 22 HR and 17 steals, while increasing his batting average from .260 in ‘09 to .318 in ‘10.

It’s probably also important to note Cruz has missed a total of 88 games over the past two seasons. A sprained ankle landed him on the DL, while various other injuries cost him a total of 34 games in 2009. Three trips to the DL in 2010 forced him to miss 54 games due to hamstring issues.

Cruz is determined to play a full season in 2011, however, as the 30-year-old slugger has altered his running style to avoid another hamstring injury. It’s difficult to predict how this might affect his stolen base totals, but 600-plus plate appearances could yield monster numbers. Heck, Cruz has only played in 267 out of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, yet he’s averaged 21 HR, 13 steals and a .292 batting average per year.

Despite having one of the worst contact rates, Cruz remains capable of a .300-plus batting average and one of the highest power/steal totals in baseball. Jason Heyward and Justin Upton have similar potential, but Cruz has already proven he can do it. He just has to stay healthy.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	445	60	22	78	17	.318
3-year average	364	51	21	60	13	.292
2011 FBI Forecast	560	85	27	90	20	.290

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• No. 31: Joe Mauer
• No. 32: Victor Martinez
• No. 33: Cliff Lee

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options