2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 30: Dan Uggla Will Thrive With The Atlanta Braves

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Since his major-league debut in 2006, Dan Uggla has made a living hitting home runs.

In fact, over the last five seasons, Uggla has the most HRs among second baseman with 154 (Chase Utley is a distant second with 134). Over the same time frame, Uggla ranks 12th in HRs among all position players and second among non-first basemen.

While Uggla’s 30-homer campaigns have usually come with a batting average no better than .260, the slugging second baseman hit a career-high .287 in 2010.

He also reached 100 runs and 100 RBI for the first time last season, making him just the third second baseman to record a 30/100/100/.280 line since 2004 (Aaron Hill, 2009; Chase Utley, 2006 & 2008).

While his unusually high batting average was likely the result of an elevated BABIP (.330), it’s important to note Uggla’s change in scenery for the 2011 season.

As opposed to Florida's Sun Life Stadium (a park which generally favors pitchers, especially in terms of home runs allowed), Uggla will now play half his games at Atlanta's Turner Field (a park which offered a slight advantage to hitters last season, according to MLB park factors).

Given his surroundings in the Braves lineup (Martin Prado, Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones and Brian McCann), Uggla could be in for a career year entering his age-31 season.

While he’s unlikely to post a .287 batting average again, we’re predicting only a slight regression in that category. His home run and RBI totals will make him one of the most valuable assets in fantasy baseball.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	674	100	33	105	4	.287
3-year average	654	94	32	96	4	.264
2011 FBI Forecast	680	100	36	110	3	.277

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The latest from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10 Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20 Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• No. 21: Dustin Pedroia
• No. 22: Chase Utley
• No. 23: Ryan Zimmerman
• No. 24: Jose Reyes
• No. 25: Josh Hamilton
• No. 26: Shin-Soo Choo
• No. 27: Adam Wainwright
• No. 28: Tim Lincecum
• No. 29: Felix Hernandez

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact 
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options