Where Could Chris Long Go?

Virginia defensive end Chris Long has many draft analysts saying he is the best player available in the draft and should be a sure-fire number one selection overall.  With the Miami Dolphins holding the first selection in the draft this year, many fans and experts have been awaiting the sight of Long in teal and orange.  However, reports indicate that the Dolphins are indeed planning to take a Long shot – but with Michigan tackle’s Jake Long.  Jake Long’s agent has been spotted at Dolphins headquarters and both sides are already negotiating contract numbers.  If Jake is willing to take less than number one overall money, rumors indicate he will be the Dolphins’ first pick.  This affects Chris Long greatly.  At first, most people may say, “So what?  He’ll go second, or third, or fifth at the absolute latest.”  While looking deeper into the draft, it is possible that the Virginia defensive end may have a Long wait to be drafted.  Could he be this year’s Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, or Aaron Rodgers?  Let’s look at the draft order and see how this could possibly go.

1. Miami Dolphins – Many people expected Chris Long to be selected here to share the defensive end duties with Jason Taylor, and be Taylor’s eventual replacement.  However, Jake Long is reported to be in contract talks with the Dolphins, knocking the defensive end from what would have made a seemingly perfect fit.

2. St. Louis Rams – With Long still available here, people may anticipate him going here.  However, Rams head coach Scott Linehan has been entertaining LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey.  With Leonard Little still on the roster and Adam Carriker wanting to move back to his natural defensive end position pending Dorsey’s drafting, Long still does not get drafted this high.

3. Atlanta Falcons – With the Michael Vick situation still lingering in the air and Bobby Petrino’s premature evacuation from the team as head coach, anticipate the Falcons to pick Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan.  The possibility does exist for them to go with a lineman, but Ryan would be a good fit, as he can sit back and learn the pro game while incumbent starter Joey Harrington has been brought back for another year.  Defensive end is likely to not be a selection here, as three time Pro Bowler John Abraham and last year’s first round pick Jamaal Anderson look as if they will be there a while.

4. Oakland Raiders – This is where things get interesting.  With Derrick Burgess having disputes over his contract, a defensive end is possible here, but unlikely with the addition of Detroit’s Kalimba Edwards.  Add the family legacy into the mix, and it remains a possibility.  Chris Long’s father is Howie Long, former Hall of Fame defensive end for the Raiders.  Papa Long admits that owner Al Davis has been trying to sway him out of retirement to be the first Hall of Famer to return to the NFL.  Howie has declined this opportunity, declaring himself happy in sports casting.  So, if Howie is out of the picture, what would be better than having his son, a highly coveted draft prospect at the same position?  However, with the sub par offense last year and the needs at many other positions, look for the Raiders to select another potential Hall of Famer, Arkansasrunning back Darren McFadden to team with former USC Trojan Justin Fargas, allowing the Raiders to sever ties with high priced Lamont Jordan.

5. Kansas City Chiefs – Count Long out from going to Raider-rival Kansas City.  All-Pro defensive end Jared Allen returns to the team and the Chiefs invested a 2006 first round selection on Tamba Hali.  Look for the Chiefs to address the offensive line if Matt Ryan is gone.  The team still has not successfully replaced recently departed Willie Roaf or Will Shields properly.  A tackle is likely here, as there is tremendous depth at the tackle position in this draft.

6. New York Jets – There is not a team in more disarray than the New York Jets.  The constant quarterback carousel is leaving the team without the necessary leadership, as the team never knows who to be behind to take the team further into the future.  The only stabilities lie in their offensive line and defensive backfield.  If McFadden is still available, look for him to team with Thomas Jones, or anticipate the Jets to go linebacker, to replace the recently departed defensive leader and 2004 Defensive Rookie of the Year Jonathan Vilma.  Penn State’s Dan Connor is a possibility, USC’s Keith Rivers, or Ohio State’s Vernon Gholston are likely.  Gholston has displayed the athletic ability to become the outside linebacker type in the Jets 3-4 defense or move to the natural defensive end in the 4-3.  Gholston is more likely than anyone else to fit in with the Jets. 

7. New EnglandPatriots – With the loss of many defensive backs in free agency this year, anticipate the Patriots to look cornerback in this year’s draft.  With one of the elite cornerbacks in the NFL, Asante Samuel, and nickel back Randall Gay leaving for Philadelphia and New Orleans respectively, look for the Patriots to pass on Long as well and go for either Troy’s Leodis McKelvin or Tennessee State’s Domonique Rogers-Cromartie.  Linebacker is also a possibility here, to replace aging linebackers Junior Seau, Ted Bruschi, and Mike Vrabel, 39 years, 34 years, and 32 years old respectively.  Penn State Dan Connor is a likely fit.

8. Baltimore Ravens – Future Hall of Fame tackle Jonathan Ogden has told the team to proceed into the draft as if he is retiring unless he lets them know beforehand.  With Steve McNair already beat up over the years from a near infinite amount of surgeries, the Ravens need to protect their aging quarterback as much as possible as well as take advantage of the depth at tackle this year.  If Matt Ryan is still available, however, look for him to not get past the Ravens, as it is clear that McNair is on his way out and former first round pick Kyle Boller is not the future answer for the Ravens.  A receiver is possible here as well, like Arkansas receiver Malcolm Kelly, Texas’ Limas Sweed, or Devin Thomas.

9. Cincinnati Bengals – With the recent departure of Justin Smith, this might make sense to see Long surface in nearby Ohio.  Even with the signing of Antwan Odom and the presence of Robert Geathers, Long has a potential career here.  However, the weakness of the team is defensive tackle.  Their most accomplished at that position is journeyman Michael Myers (not of Halloween fame).  And with the likelihood of USC’s Sedrick Ellis availability (or LSU’s Dorsey if the rams go with Ellis) the Bengals pass on Long as well.

10. New Orleans Saints – The Saints comprise one of the best defensive end tandems in the NFL.  Charles Grant and Will Smith (minus Jazzy Jeff) both look to have stellar careers ahead of them and there is no need to crowd that position and make people unhappy.  Even with the signing of Randall Gay to the Saints, it looks as though they will address the cornerback position.  Jason David has not performed as expected and Aaron Glenn is old enough to be some of the players in the draft’s father.  McKelvin or Rogers Cromartie are likely.

11. Buffalo Bills – Long falls out of the Top Ten and looks as though he will continue to fall.  One of the few bright spots on the Bills for the past few years has been Aaron Schobel.  Team him with Chris Kelsay and throw Ryan Denney in for depth, and Long does not make western New York a home either.  Bills may look for a cornerback as well, as they have yet to replace Nate Clements, who left in 2007 for the 49ers, signing the largest contract by a defensive player ever.  McKelvin or Rogers-Cromartie are selected here if still available, or Kansas’s Aqib Talib.

12. Denver Broncos – Everyone knows the Broncos covet defensive linemen and no doubt would like to have Chris Long’s talents enter Dove Valley this training camp.  However, with the surprising emergence of Elvis Dumervil (Marcus Vick, now who’s standing?) and the first two picks used on defensive end last year (Florida’s Jarvis Moss and Texas’ Tim Crowder) Long still waits to hear his name called.  With the recent retirement of reliable left tackle Matt Lepsis and the hole that still remains on that side, look for the Broncos to pick a tackle.  Ryan Clady from Boise St., Pitt’s Jeff Otah, or Vanderbilt’s Chris Williams should be picked here.  Williams would not be a bad pick here, as it teams him up with quarterback Jay Cutler.  Who better to watch Cutler’s blindside for the next ten years than the man who did it for him in college?

13. Carolina Panthers – Michael Rucker and Julius Peppers both hold down the defensive end position here, and with the signing of Tyler Brayton, Long can be ruled out here as well.  With Jordan Gross holding down the left tackle, see that the Panthers draft someone to take the right side over, moving Travelle Wharton in to guard.  A running back here is not out of the question either, as Deshaun Foster has departed for the 49ers.  Rashard Mendenhall looks to be the best available back.

14. Chicago Bears – Long absolutely does not go to Chicago.  Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye both hold down the defensive end positions on this team, and hold them down well.  With running back Cedric Benson not performing the way he should, look for the Bears to go for Rashard Mendenhall, who attended nearby Illinois.  A tackle as well could wind up as a first pick in Chicago.  A receiver is not out of the question either, as the team lost starters Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian leaving Chicago for free agency (Carolina and Minnesota, respectively).

15. Detroit Lions – Long is still waiting to hear his name and general manager Matt Millen could finally pull off something to make the Detroit Fans support something he has done for once (no more Millen Man Marches?).  Corey Redding looks to be one starter on the team and the other position looks to have a competition.  Unfortunately, the Lions also have a pressing need at running back.  Tatum Bell has proven on two occasions that he can not be a primary back in the NFL, and with starter Kevin Jones and favorite T.J. Duckett departing, look for the Lions to pick a running back here as well.  If Mendenhall is still here, he does not get past the Motor City.  Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart is likely, however.

16. Arizona Cardinals – With Calvin Pace leaving Arizona, doesn’t it seem Long will finally find a home here?  No, it doesn’t.  Pro Bowler Bertrand Berry dwells in the southwest as does Darnell Dockett.  And with the signing of Travis LaBoy being signed to provide depth, Long still endures.  A linebacker is likely, most likely USC’s Rivers if he is still available, not even needing to board a plane to go to his new home.  The inside position looks good with Monty Beisel and with Clark Haggans likely to take the strong outside spot, see to it that Rivers winds up on the weakside.

17. Minnesota Vikings – If Long is still here, see to it that he becomes a Viking.  Even with Erasmus James and Kenechi Udeze holding the ends down, Long comes in and makes an impact, and for the second year in a row, the Vikings get a steal in the first round, after Adrian Peterson fell into their lap last year.

So there you have it.  Chris Long could last as long as 17^th overall.  With the possibility of him lasting longer, one could go further.  Texans would not take him, as they have been searching for a left tackle since the franchise’s inception.  The Eagles are more than likely looking for a receiver.  Buccaneers are set and would go for a linebacker or offensive lineman.  The Redskins would take him at 21^st.  Browns, Steelers, and Titans would pass.  So would the Seahawks, Jaguars, and Chargers.  Cowboys already have too many defensive ends and the Colts have, in my opinion, the best defensive end tandem in football (Mathis and Freeney).  But the Packers most likely would take him at 30^th.  Long will not escape the first round, but now it is clear what happens if he does not go first overall.  He would lose a lot of draft money.  This is also on the highly unlikely chance that there are no trades in the first round (which there will be plenty) and no one trades up to snag Long before another antsy team sees him as a steal.