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2011 Fantasy Projections No 16: Why Matt Holliday Is Better Than Kemp, Hamilton

Nick Kappel
Jan 23, 2011

Ourย 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5ร—5 H2H settings.

Someย fantasy baseball sites have Matt Holliday ranked behind fellow outfielders such as Matt Kemp, Josh Hamiltonย and Justin Upton. Weโ€™re not one of those sites, however, as we believe Hollidayย will beย the fourth best outfielder in 2011, and hereโ€™s why:

Consistency and durability are very important with your first few picks, and Holliday fits the mold while the others donโ€™t. In fact, despite playing the last two seasons in Oakland and St. Louis (not Colorado), Holliday boasts the mostย impressiveย three-year averages of the group:

  • Holliday: 99 runs, 26 HRs, 100 RBI, 17 steals, .315 batting average
  • Kemp: 91 runs, 24 HRs, 89 RBI, 29 steals, .279 batting average
  • Hamilton: 79 runs, 25 HRs, 95 RBI, 8 steals, .315 batting average
  • Upton: 70 runs, 19 HRs, 66 RBI, 12 steals, .277 batting average

Holliday has even managed to cut down on his strikeout rateย since his departure from Coors Field in 2008:

Holliday hasย also increased his fly ball rates in each of the last three seasons while sustaining consistent HR totals (24, 25, 28) and .310-plus batting averages.

Given his position in the Cardinals lineup behind Albert Pujols and in front of the newly acquired Lance Berkman, Holliday is poised for another great season. The 31-year-old isnโ€™t generally referred to as a five-category contributor, but thatโ€™s exactly what he is. Draft him with confidence.

ย PARHRRBISBAVG
2010 stats67595281039.312
3-year average656992610017.315
2011 FBI Forecast6751002911010.316

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