2011 Fantasy Projections No 16: Why Matt Holliday Is Better Than Kemp, Hamilton

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Some fantasy baseball sites have Matt Holliday ranked behind fellow outfielders such as Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton. We’re not one of those sites, however, as we believe Holliday will be the fourth best outfielder in 2011, and here’s why:

Consistency and durability are very important with your first few picks, and Holliday fits the mold while the others don’t. In fact, despite playing the last two seasons in Oakland and St. Louis (not Colorado), Holliday boasts the most impressive three-year averages of the group:

• Holliday: 99 runs, 26 HRs, 100 RBI, 17 steals, .315 batting average
• Kemp: 91 runs, 24 HRs, 89 RBI, 29 steals, .279 batting average
• Hamilton: 79 runs, 25 HRs, 95 RBI, 8 steals, .315 batting average
• Upton: 70 runs, 19 HRs, 66 RBI, 12 steals, .277 batting average

Holliday has even managed to cut down on his strikeout rate since his departure from Coors Field in 2008:

Holliday has also increased his fly ball rates in each of the last three seasons while sustaining consistent HR totals (24, 25, 28) and .310-plus batting averages.

Given his position in the Cardinals lineup behind Albert Pujols and in front of the newly acquired Lance Berkman, Holliday is poised for another great season. The 31-year-old isn’t generally referred to as a five-category contributor, but that’s exactly what he is. Draft him with confidence.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	675	95	28	103	9	.312
3-year average	656	99	26	100	17	.315
2011 FBI Forecast	675	100	29	110	10	.316

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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