2011 Fantasy Projections No. 13: Why Phillies' Ryan Howard Remains a Top-5 1B

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Ryan Howard missed three weeks last August with a sprained ankle, effectively ending his four-year streak of at least 45 HRs and 136 RBI per season.  That ankle is now 90 to 95 percent according to the Phillies’ website.

“It feels good,” Howard said. “It’s a lot better than it was. I got a lot of work done to it. I got a lot of the swelling out. Like I said, every once in a while, I get a little bit of stiffness or soreness, but I’ve been working out, and so far, so good.”

Howard averaged a home run every 12.1 at-bats from 2005 to 2009, before dropping to 17.7 at-bats per HR last season.  Given a clean bill of health, his ridonkulous at-bat per HR rates are impossible to ignore when projecting his 2011 season.

Although Howard isn’t likely to post the 30.0 percent-plus HR/FB rates that supported his near-50 long ball totals from 2005 to 2008, the 31-year-old remains fully capable of blasting 40 bombs in 2011.

While Howard’s power may be declining slightly, his strikeout and contact rates have been trending in the right direction for the last few seasons:

K percentage

• 2007: 37.6 percent
• 2008: 32.6 percent
• 2009: 30.2 percent
• 2010: 28.5 percent

Contact Rate

• 2007: 64.7 percent
• 2008: 66.5 percent
• 2009: 67.3 percent
• 2010: 68.2 percent

Although both his strikeout and contact rates remain on the wrong side of the league average, it’s important to note that Howard’s plate discipline is—slowly but surely—improving.

Further, his career batting average (.279) is probably higher than most realize, and is identical to that of Prince Fielder, who has been wildly inconsistent over the last four seasons. Expect the more predictable Howard to blast 40 HRs and be among the league-leaders in RBI in 2011.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	626	87	31	108	1	.276
3-year average	674	99	41	132	3	.269
2011 FBI Forecast	680	100	39	130	1	.277

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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