2011 Fantasy Projections, No 6: Why You Should Draft Mets' Wright Over Longoria

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Injuries and a pitcher-friendly Citi Field have plagued the Mets bats over the last two seasons, including David Wright’s.

From 2005 to 2008, David Wright dominated National League pitching with season averages of 106 runs, 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 29 steals and a .311 batting average. In 2009, Citi Field’s inaugural season, Wright yielded much different results, as he posted career-lows (not counting his shortened rookie season) in runs (88), home runs (10), and RBI (72), and an alarming strikeout rate of 26.2 percent.

But 2010 saw Wright recapture his power, whacking 29 bombs while driving in 103 runs. He also swiped 19 bases and hit .283. His strikeout rate, however, increased for the third consecutive season:

K%

Wright, generally known for his excellent plate discipline, has also seen his walk rate decrease in each of the last four seasons:

BB%

While these trends are somewhat discouraging, a healthy Jose Reyes (missed 29 games in 2010), Carlos Beltran (missed 98 games in 2010), and Jason Bay (missed 67 games in 2010) could go a long way towards helping Wright reverse those trends and returning to his 2007 30/100/100/30/.300 form—a ceiling above that of fellow third baseman Evan Longoria.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	670	87	29	103	19	.283
3-year average	675	97	24	100	20	.297
2011 FBI Forecast	680	95	33	110	20	.298

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• No. 1: Albert Pujols
• No. 2: Hanley Ramirez
• No. 3: Miguel Cabrera
• No. 4: Troy Tulowitzki
• No. 5: Adrian Gonzalez

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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