2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 1: St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols Still on Top

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Over the past 10 seasons, Albert Pujols has established himself as the most consistent player in baseball. His season averages (119 runs, 41 HRs, 123 RBI, eight steals, .331 batting average) are unreachable by most others’ standards.

His career lows (99 runs, 32 HRs, 103 RBI, .312 batting average) coupled with the fact that he’s never missed more than 19 games in a single season make him the safest pick on draft day.

There are, however, subtle signs that suggest some of his skills may be diminishing. For example, Pujols’ contact and zone contact rates have declined noticeably over the last three seasons:

Contact Rate

• 2008: 90.1 percent
  
• 2009: 86.6 percent
  
• 2010: 85.4 percent
  

Zone Contact Rate

• 2008: 95.8 percent
  
• 2009: 94.4 percent
  
• 2010: 90.6 percent
  

Despite these declines, Pujols is still well above the league averages of contact rate (80.7 percent) and zone contact rate (88.1 percent).

His hacks at pitches outside the strike zone are also trending in the wrong direction:

O-Swing Rate

• 2008: 21.6 percent
  
• 2009: 22.9 percent
  
• 2010: 27.5 percent
  

While Pujols’ 2010 O-swing rate was on the good side of the league average (29.3 percent), it’s still worth mentioning. In fact, these numbers may be the simple result of a league-wide boost in the quality of pitching we’ve seen over the last couple years. Either way, Pujols is still only 31 and remains the top producer in fantasy baseball.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 stats	700	115	42	118	14	.312
Three-year average	680	113	42	123	12	.331
2011 FBI Forecast	700	120	41	125	10	.315

 ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why 5 Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero and Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

Follow Fantasy Baseball Insiders on Facebook and Twitter.