NFL Playoff Preview and Prediction: Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

In a league where just about every team has a significant flaw, the Atlanta Falcons were able to secure a number one seed with a style most accurately described by Mike Tanier of the New York Times’ Fifth Down Blog as “blandly efficient.” The Falcons are solid pretty much across the board but, they are hardly spectacular. The one exception might be Roddy White, but he’s a bit banged up here and will certainly attract plenty of attention from a talented Green Bay defensive backfield (Charles Woodson, the blossoming Tramon Williams).

Even more ominous for Atlanta is the fact that they have not run the ball as well in the latter part of the season. This is an offense that put up 14 points at home against a New Orleans Saints defense that got torched by the Seattle Seahawks last week. Green Bay has far more talent on defense than the Saints and the recipe for slowing down or maybe even shutting down the Falcon offense looks pretty clear: blanket White and stack the box against the run.

Meanwhile, we haven’t even mentioned the dynamic Packer offense. Aaron Rodgers has been hot and unlike Atlanta’s Matt Ryan he has no shortage of weapons to work with. The big story here, however, could be the emergence of James Starks as a legitimate running threat, perhaps the only key piece that the Packers have been lacking this season. The only question mark for Green Bay is the dubious game management of coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers thoroughly outplayed the Eagles last week and yet somehow McCarthy managed to single-handedly keep the opposition in the game.

The Packers lost six games this year- four of them by three points and the other two by four. Remarkably, they never trailed by more seven points at any point this season. Essentially, they are the most talented team in the league, New England included, and they look much more like a true number one seed at this point than Atlanta does. If the Falcons can keep it close, they will have a chance to win it late if Mike Smith outcoaches McCarthy, which is distinctly possible. Nevertheless, you have to go with the better team, and that’s clearly the Packers.

Pick: Green Bay +2.5/ Under 44