NFL Playoff Predictions: 5 Reasons Atlanta Falcons Can Beat Green Bay Packers

The primetime playoff game this weekend is between the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. All year long the Falcons haven't gotten the respect from the national audience that they deserve. They won 13 games, but only had one game on Sunday night or Monday night, and it was the Week 16 loss to New Orleans.

This weekend they have the stage to show everyone what they are all about. They can show everyone why they won 13 games this season. They can show everyone why they earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC this season. They can do a lot of things when the game kicks off at 8:00 pm EST on Fox.

However, there isn't a whole lot of love coming the Falcons way this weekend. All the talk seems to be about the other team that will be on the field.

Green Bay is a great team and they will prove a formidable opponent for the Falcons this weekend. But a lot of prognosticators see this game as just another stop for the Packers on their way to Dallas on February 6th.

But before we completely dismiss the Falcons, let's take a minute to look at the ways that they can actually win the game.

Here are five reasons that the Atlanta Falcons can knock off the Green Bay Packers on Saturday night.

Matt Ryan Doesn’t Lose At Home

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ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 02: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates their 31-10 win over the Carolina Panthers at Georgia Dome on January 2, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Matt Ryan has quickly developed into one of the best quarterbacks in all of football. His numbers aren’t as good as someone like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but the guy performs as well as anyone in football.

With that in mind, he has put together one of the all-time great home records in his career. In 22 starts in the Georgia Dome, Ryan has won 20 of them. He is 20-2 at home in his four year career. He has been virtually unbeatable at home in his brief career up to this point.

Don’t underestimate what playing in Atlanta will mean for this Falcons team. Their only loss this season was a very close game against New Orleans three weeks ago on Monday night football.

Green Bay Won’t Have Success Running The Ball This Week

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PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 09: James Starks #44 of the Green Bay Packers runs through the tackle of Ernie Sims #50 of the Philadelphia Eagles during the 2011 NFC wild card playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field on January 9, 2011 in Philadelphia, Pennsy

Last week against Philadelphia, Packers running back James Starks ran for 123 yards. If you have watched the Packers this season you would know that their running game has been their biggest weakness.

That said Atlanta’s defensive front is much better than the Eagles. The Falcons defense ranked 10th against the run this season. For all the praise that the Packers running game has been getting this week, don’t forget that the Falcons defensive strength is in stopping the run.

Michael Vick Isn’t Matt Ryan

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ATLANTA, GA - JANUARY 02: Quarterback Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons looks to pass during the game against the Carolina Panthers at the Georgia Dome on January 2, 2011 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

In the Packers win over Philadelphia last week they were able to sack Michael Vick three times. They got pressure on him and forced him out of his game.

Matt Ryan is a better pure quarterback than Vick.

He understands defensive schemes and coverage better than Vick that he will be able to anticipate where the blitz is going to come from. He will check down to his third or fourth option, something that Vick didn’t do.

Plus, with Clay Matthews blitzing it will leave Tony Gonzalez free off the line. Ryan will have no problem looking to Gonzalez to keep the chains moving in this game.

The Falcons Success On Third and Fourth Down

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ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 27: Michael Turner #33 of the Atlanta Falcons rushes upfield during the first half of the game against the New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome on December 27, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

Atlanta has been one of the most successful teams in football this year on third and fourth down conversions. These are the key plays in the game because when the offense converts them it demoralizes the defense.

The Falcons ranked second in the NFC this season converting 46.7 percent of their third downs. The team that wins the third down battle in this game is probably going to win this game.

If you want to take it one step further, the Falcons led the NFL in fourth-down conversion percentage this season. On fourth-downs this year, the Falcons converted 73.3 percent of the time. They do what they have to do in order to keep the chains moving and controlling the clock.

If the Falcons are successful on third and fourth down in this game, they will beat the Packers.

The Falcons Have Already Beaten The Packers This Year

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ATLANTA - NOVEMBER 28: Michael Turner #33 of the Atlanta Falcons rushes rushes upfield away from A.J. Hawk #50 and Nick Collins #36 of the Green Bay Packers at Georgia Dome on November 28, 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Oh by the way, if you are looking for the ultimate argument for Atlanta in this game look no further then Week 12 of this NFL season.

That would be the game when Atlanta defeated Green Bay, 20-17.

The game was one of the best of the season. The two teams went back and forth the whole game. Atlanta grabbed a 17-10 lead early in the fourth quarter on a Michael Turner touchdown run.

The score would stay that way until there was less than one minute remaining in the game.  Aaron Rodgers scrambled around for what seemed like five minutes before finding Jordy Nelson in the endzone for the tying score with 56 seconds left.

Atlanta got the ball back and were aided by a facemask penalty on the kickoff return. They started on the Green Bay 49-yard line. A few plays and 19 yards later, Matt Bryant kicked a 47-yard field goal to win the game.

The best argument to be made for Atlanta defeating Green Bay this weekend is that they just did it seven weeks ago.