2011 Fantasy Football Mock First Round: Because It's Never Too Early...
Leagues are almost never won in the first round, but they are often lost.
In 2010 we saw first-round picks wasted on the likes of Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald and DeAngelo Williams.
It’s important to balance risks and rewards and decide whether you want to play it safe and take a proven RB (Adrian Peterson) or opt for a flashy fantasy QB who could see his season end on any play (Michael Vick).
Either way, it’s never too early to start looking at the first round as projections likely won’t change much between now and the start of the 2011 season. And just think…one in 12 teams is already on the clock…
1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings
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AP spells consistency. Despite a complete mess at quarterback and a suspect offensive line in 2010, Peterson still managed to average 4.6 yards per carry.
Guys like Foster and Vick are going to get consideration here.
However, Peterson is definitely the safest pick and appears to be bust-proof heading into 2011.
2. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
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Arian Foster's stats exploded in 2010, which caused many to dub him 2010’s Fantasy Football MVP.
Foster finished with over 1,600 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. While those numbers are impressive on their own, Foster also managed to pull down 66 receptions for over 600 yards and two receiving touchdowns.
In leagues with standard scoring formats, Foster finished with nearly 100 more fantasy points than Peterson, his closest competition at RB.
He should be taken at No. 1 in a lot of leagues but he has nowhere to go but down in 2011.
3. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
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Vick has perhaps the highest ceiling of any first-round pick.
Despite missing three games, the Eagles QB managed to throw for over 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns with only six interceptions.
His signature speed also netted him nearly 700 yards on the ground with nine rushing touchdowns as he led the Eagles to the playoffs.
It won't come as much as a shock if he goes first in some drafts. However, the injury risk alone makes him a dangerous pick this early.
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4. Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
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Another player with No. 1 potential in 2011 is Jamaal Charles.
Despite sharing a backfield with Thomas Jones for most of the 2010 season, Charles managed to put up nearly 1,500 yards with five scores on the ground.
In addition, he had nearly 500 yards receiving and three touchdowns receptions.
The likely increase in carries in 2011 makes Charles a strong, educated first-round pick in 2011 with Fantasy MVP potential.
5. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
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Coming off one of the best fantasy seasons in history, Chris Johnson had nowhere to go but down.
Like Peterson, Johnson saw himself as part of a one-dimensional offense in 2011.
Regardless, Johnson managed to rack up over 1,300 yards and 11 scores on the ground. He also had over 200 yards through the air and a receiving touchdown.
If the Titans can find themselves an admirable quarterback and bolster a questionable offensive line, Johnson could rise back to the top in 2011.
6. Lesean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
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LeSean McCoy proved himself in 2010, rushing for over 1,000 yards with seven touchdowns.
What separates McCoy from some of his other competition at running back is his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield.
McCoy finished with just under 600 yards receiving in 2010 to go along with two receiving touchdowns.
It also doesn’t hurt that he’s part of one of the most electrifying offenses in football.
7. Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
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Despite missing three games in 2010, Darren McFadden showed owners that he has first-round potential.
With nearly 1,700 total yards and 10 touchdowns, McFadden gave Raiders fans something to cheer about.
While many see Michael Bush as a liability, he should actually benefit McFadden in 2011 by keeping him fresh and healthy and providing a change of pace for the constantly improving Raiders offense.
8. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
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It's always good to own the No. 1 running back on a winning team.
Mendenhall finished 2010 with nearly 1,300 and an impressive 13 rushing touchdowns.
He may be a safer pick the McFadden or perhaps even McCoy, but his ceiling is definitely a little lower.
9. Michael Turner, RB, Atlanta Falcons
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Michael Turner is an extremely similar player to Mendenhall: safe, strong, consistent and a catalyst for a contender.
He should match his 2010 output of nearly 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2011.
10. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Jones-Drew totaled over 1,600 yards in 2010 despite missing two games.
However, his draft stock falls considerably due to injury risk and the fact that he's having surgery on his knee during the off-season.
It will be interesting to see who takes over as head coach in Jacksonville, as he will have big effect on the number of carries Jones-Drew sees in 2011.
11. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
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If Vick is in a category all his own, then Aaron Rodgers leads the rest of the pack.
The frequent concussions are becoming somewhat of a concern, but Rogers would've easily passed for over 4,000 yards in 2010 if it hadn't been for the one missed game.
An improved running game and the return of Jermichael Finley should help Rogers find continued success in 2011.
12. Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens
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Ray Rice totaled nearly 1,800 yards in 2010 but saw his draft stock plummet due to a drastic decrease in touchdowns.
Rice still seemed to be improving as the season went on and is a strong value pick at the end of the first round.
On the bubble: Frank Gore, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Peyton Hillis, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning
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