Andrew Luck Stays in School: What Is the Domino Effect on Buffalo Bills' Draft?
Stanford's quarterback sensation, Andrew Luck, announced that he is going to come back to Stanford University next fall to complete his college education. This is going to have a rippling effect up and down the first round of the draft.
Just last year, there were thought to be two franchise players that were available in the draft: Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford and Nebraska defensive lineman Ndamukong Suh. There was a drop off in talent after those two went off the draft board with the first two picks.
It is very early in the information gathering phase of the 2011 draft with major announcements still pending on whom is declaring to enter the draft and who will stay in college, like Andrew Luck is.
From the majority of pro football prospect experts, there were thought to be three stud players or franchise types in Luck, Clemson defensive lineman Da'Quan Bowers and Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley. The Buffalo Bills were looking good because they hold the third pick, so one of these franchise type of players would be there for them when they go on the clock.
But now with Luck's decision to stay in school. the franchise player pool dwindles from three to two. So what kind of ramifications does this have on the Bills pick?
Will Either Bowers or Fairley Slide Down to the Bills At No. 3?
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The early fallout of the Andrew Luck announcement suggests that Carolina, holding the first pick, will focus on Da'Quan Bowers.
Then the Denver Broncos come up to the plate. They have a new VP of Football Operations, some guy called John Elway. Elway was showing how up he was on things when he kept calling potential head coach Mike Malarkey by the name of Mark Malarkey. Hopefully, they will conduct their draft in the same way. Seriously, without a coach on board, and Tim Tebow still pretty wet behind the ears, there are different directions the Broncos could go with.
So, does that mean Nick Fairley is there for the Bills at No. 3? If he is, does Buddy Nix take him without looking back, or does some other team value Fairley so much that they are willing to overpay to draft him? By overpay, we are talking multiple high draft picks in exchange for the third overall pick.
In the article I wrote earlier this week, which was a comprehensive 2011 draft guide, there was already some degree of ground swell that the Bills should consider trading down with that first pick. Now that Andrew Luck is out of the picture, it will be interesting to see if that thought really starts to pick up more steam.
If you are sitting there with the third overall pick, you can not afford to make a mistake. Who else is out there that is a sure-fire-blue-chip-can't-miss impact player? Next slide please.
Will Patrick Peterson Wind Up Being the Bills' Pick?
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Patrick Peterson is the closest thing available to a shutdown cornerback available in the draft. Is he worthy of the third overall pick?
The Bills' current cornerback tandem includes Drayton Florence, Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin. Of this trio, Florence's contract is now expired, and he is a free agent. McGee has been plagued by injuries for the past two years, and there is a concern about how physically strong and healthy he is. McKelvin has looked good in spurts, but has also given up him share of touchdowns and big completions.
Looking at the AFC East has been shaping up, you have Tom Brady throwing touchdowns all over the field to his rookie tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, as well as Wes Welker and Deion Branch. The Jets have the duo of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. The Dolphins have Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess.
The Bills need a strong secondary to deal with these formidable receiving corps. But they also need to stuff the running attacks of their AFC East rivals just as badly, if not worse.
Therein lies the dilemma for Bills General Manager Buddy Nix. Does he take the best defensive playmaker on the board, who presumably would be Peterson or Fairley, even if they don't grade out to be worthy of the pick? What if the only player left that grades out on a par to the pick is Georgia receiver A.J. Green? That would be an almost identical scenario that Nix found himself in when he was up with the ninth pick and on the clock. We all know how that one turned out.
The Talent Pool Continues To Grow, Not Shrink
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Some of the air of the Buffalo Bills fans' hopes and aspirations for the third overall pick was deflated with the announcement of Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck's decision to go back to school next year. That decision however, was somewhat negated with the decisions of Georgia wide receiver A.J. Green, West Virginia safety Robert Sands, Missouri defensive end Aldon Smith, Wisconsin running back John Clay and Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones, who all declared themselves eligible for the NFL draft.
Each underclassman who is talented enough to be advised of being a first, second or third round pick means that the Bills will have a greater chance at not only securing a great player with the first pick, but strong talent available with the second and third round choices as well.
One side note is that the A.J. Green announcement would seemingly create the perfect player for Cincinnati to draft with the fourth overall pick.Terrell Owens will not be back at Cincinnati, and Chad Ochocinco is on thin ice based on some of his remarks regarding head coach Marvin Lewis. Green makes tremendous sense for the Bengals.
If other NFL teams are convinced that Green will be a true impact player, they would have to leap frog over the Bengals if they want to draft him. To accomplish that, the Bills are sitting there with that third pick, and operators will be standing by.
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Chan Gailey and the Bills Staff Are Coaching the South Team in the Senior Bowl
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It was announced that the Buffalo Bills (South team) and the Cincinnati Bengals (North team) are the two NFL teams selected to be the coaching staffs for the Senior Bowl game.The game is on January 29, and will air on the NFL Network.
Since Chan Gailey and the Bills staff will coach the South team, that means Gailey gets first-hand knowledge of assessing the SEC players that are involved in the game. He gets to see how well they take to coaching, how quick of a study they are, whether they repeat the same mistakes, what their strengths and weaknesses are and how they stack up against better competition.
The South team will see players from Miami, Florida, Florida State, Alabama and Arkansas, to name a few.
Players who have agreed to participate in the game that are noteworthy include Ryan Kerrigan, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Mike Pouncey, Luke Stocker, D.J. Williams, Adrian Clayborn and Allen Bailey.
Consider this development to be a feather in the Bills' cap with respect to the 2011 draft.
Chan Gailey Gets First-Hand Look At Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Greg McElroy
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For what it is worth, the quarterbacks that Chan Gailey will be working with on the South squad include Christian Ponder (Florida State), Andy Dalton (TCU) and Greg McElroy (Alabama).
This is a pretty decent group for Gailey to work with, and Ponder is projected to be the highest-rated quarterback of the trio. Unfortunately, since this is the Senior Bowl, Ryan Mallett is not part of the game, as he is not a senior.
If the Bills wind up drafting one of these three quarterbacks, you know that it was because Gailey was sold that one of them has the talent to be an NFL quarterback. If the Bills draft a tight end in Luke Stocker or D.J. Williams, you know that Chan Gailey liked what he saw in either of them.
To my way of thinking, the less-publicized Andy Dalton is the dark horse of this group. He has the ability to go soaring up the draft boards with a strong showing in this game and at the combines.
Is This the End of Marcus Stroud in Buffalo?
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The current buzz surrounding the Bills is that Marcus Stroud may be viewed as expendable. His production certainly wasn't epic, and he is getting up there in years—he will turn 33 before the start of the season. His contract is rather hefty at $4.5 million, so he would make a fairly big hit in whatever the salary cap of the new NFLPA collective bargaining agreement turns out to be.
With Alex Carrington waiting in the wings, Stroud's release would give the Bills a chance to get younger and perhaps more athletic. Stroud could be seen lumbering behind many ball carriers throughout the season. His weight and legs seem to keep him far back from making a play on the ball.
Stroud's leadership would be missed, but this is a bottom-line business, and Stroud is not close to the form he displayed when he was a Pro-Bowl standout earlier in his career.
This pending move would also lend more credence to the Bills picking a defensive lineman with their first-round pick.
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