2011 NFL Draft: Top 10 First Round Prospects for the San Francisco 49ers
The 2010 season is mercifully over for the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers ended their season with a 6-10 record, finishing third in the very weak NFC West. With this win, it's unlikely that some of these players will be available when the Niners selection comes up at No. 7.
The 49ers need a major overhaul in terms of management responsibilities and coaching. Team President Jed York is currently interviewing candidates for the general manager job, although many are already stating the job is already earmarked for Trent Baalke. Whoever becomes the next GM of the 49ers will also be responsible for hiring the next head coach to replace Mike Singletary, who was fired after last week's game.
The new GM will be charged with putting together the upcoming draft for the 49ers. The Niners have several major areas that need to be addressed. The most pressing of these areas are at quarterback, pass rusher and a strong cover corner.
The 49ers also need help at wide receiver and offensive line, but those are not positions where they should use a Round 1 pick. Unless you are absolutely certain that you have a special talent at the wide receiver position, you can generally wait and find good receivers in later rounds.
The 49ers also selected two offensive linemen in the first round of the 2010 Draft. It's unlikely they would pick another offensive lineman with their Round 1 selection.
College scouting is a Trent Baalke strength. He is currently the 49ers' vice president of player personnel and the majority of his experience has been with the draft.
NFL analyst and former quarterback Trent Dilfer stated in an interview that Baalke was one of the bright, up-and-coming young executives in the NFL. Dilfer went on to state that as a fan, he would be very pleased with Trent Baalke as the 49ers next GM. Time will tell, however, if Baalke is the final choice.
I believe that Jed York will make a decision on who the next 49ers GM will be in the next couple of weeks. No matter who the 49ers bring in, this draft is very important for the 49ers. They need some impact talent to make a difference on their roster.
Let's take a look at the top 10 players for the 49ers to choose from in the upcoming draft. Not all of these players would be considered in the top 10 overall, but this is a situation where, given so many areas of weakness, the 49ers will be drafting for need.
10. Cam Newton: Quarterback
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Heisman Trophy award winner Cam Newton is an incredibly gifted athlete and someone the San Francisco 49ers should consider with their Round 1 pick in the 2011 Draft. Although not nearly as polished as Andrew Luck, Newton is a tremendous talent.
Cam Newton will almost certainly declare for the NFL Draft and leave school early. By winning the Heisman and getting Auburn into the national title game, there's not a whole lot more that Newton needs to accomplish at the collegiate level.
In addition, the issue about his dad trying to basically extort money out of colleges during the recruiting process is not likely to go away anytime soon. Cam Newton will want to distance himself from that mess and the NFL is beckoning.
Cam Newton reminds me of Vince Young in terms of talent and ability, but without the immaturity and insecurity of Young. Cam Newton is a physical specimen at 6'6" and 250 lbs.
Newton has a big-time arm, although he can improve on his ability with touch passes. In the 2010 season, Newton completed 165 passes in 246 attempts, good for a 67.1 percentage. He threw for 2,589 yards and 28 touchdowns, with only six interceptions.
Improved pocket awareness is something that Cam Newton needs to focus on. He was sacked 21 times this past season, which is way too high.
Cam Newton excels out of the pocket on scramble plays and running the football. In 2010, Newton rushed for 1,409 yards on 242 carries, a 5.82 average. He also ran for 20 touchdowns.
If the 49ers draft Cam Newton with their No. 1 pick, there is some element of risk involved. He will need to learn the pro-style offense and improve on his ability to read defenses. He also has basically played just one season of college ball at quarterback and is nowhere near as ready to step into the NFL as Andrew Luck.
Cam Newton does have tremendous upside, however. His physical skills and athletic ability make him a special prospect. The 49ers will need patience and a good quarterback coach to help Newton master the NFL game.
9) Von Miller: Outside Linebacker
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This draft class is a down year in terms of impact-caliber linebackers. However, the 49ers can use a strong pass rusher on the outside and Von Miller out of Texas A&M fills the bill.
The San Francisco 49ers are well stocked at inside linebacker with Patrick Willis. He has also expressed an interest in restructuring his contract in order for the Niners to re-sign Takeo Spikes, who plays next to Willis on the inside of their 3-4 defense. Rookie NaVorro Bowman has also shown promise on the inside and could step into a starting role if Spikes is not re-signed.
Outside linebacker is a different story for the 49ers. Manny Lawson is a free agent and although I do expect the Niners to keep him, it's not a guarantee. Lawson is good in pass coverage and is not asked to blitz as much.
The other outside linebacking position has been manned by Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks and Travis LaBoy. This is a pass rushing spot and a position of underachievement on the 49ers defense. Von Miller could make an immediate impact at this spot in the pass rushing role.
Von Miller has 27 sacks over his last two seasons at Texas A&M. Although a bit undersized at 6'2" and 243 lbs, Miller has excellent speed and a good burst off the line, which is needed at this position.
Miller also shows good instincts and intelligence to go along with his athleticism. He was also the Dick Butkus Award winner as the top linebacker in college football.
Miller will need to put on 10 to 20 pounds of much needed muscle, without losing any of his quickness. His weakness is when he gets engaged by a blocker, especially on running plays. He needs more strength to shed the blocker and make the tackle. Until he develops that strength, Miller will mostly be a pass-rushing specialist, not an every-down player.
8) Adrian Clayborn: Defensive End
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Adrian Clayborn would give the San Francisco 49ers a strong pass rusher at defensive end, opposite 49ers Pro Bowler Justin Smith. Clayborn has the ability to give the Niner defensive front a much needed boost.
Clayborn has good size and burst off ball at the defensive end position. After his junior year at Iowa, Clayborn was considered a lock to be a top 10 pick in the 2011 Draft. He had 70 total tackles and 11.5 sacks in 2009.
Adrian Clayborn has the strength to beat his blocker with a bull rush but also the speed to get around him on the outside. He is a very aggressive player and sometimes undisciplined to the point where he will sometimes take himself out of plays by being overly aggressive.
Unfortunately he was not as effective this year and has also had some off-field character issues, which have dropped his stock. Opposing offenses have often double-teamed Clayborn, making it more difficult for him to get to the quarterback and make plays.
Adrian Clayborn has the ultimate potential to be the best defensive lineman coming out of this draft. However, drafting him also carries a greater risk. The 49ers must do their homework and be comfortable that there will be no character problems resurfacing and that his play will not continue to regress.
I do believe Clayborn will be well worth the risk and turn out to be a very good pass-rushing defensive end, should the 49ers draft him.
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7) Ryan Kerrigan: Defensive End
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Over the course of the season, Ryan Kerrigan has moved steadily up the draft board. He is now a solid pick in the first half of Round 1 in the NFL draft.
I know there will be some that question why I have Kerrigan rated this high. Consistency of effort and productivity is a big thing in the NFL. Ryan Kerrigan displays that consistency in his play and although he may never become a superstar, I believe he will be a very good NFL player for the next decade.
The risk with Kerrigan is much lower than with some of the other more athletic defensive linemen. He has shown that he is a player you can count on, which carries a great deal of weight, because the 49ers cannot whiff on this first pick.
Ryan Kerrigan has 12.5 sacks and led the nation with 26 tackles for loss. He has the skills to be an outstanding pass rusher and was named as a first team AP All-American. Kerrigan was also named the 2010 Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year.
At 6'4" and 263 lbs, Kerrigan combines excellent strength to go along with decent size and adequate speed to make himself one of the top defensive linemen available. Kerrigan should be able to play in a 3-4 as either a defensive end or pass rushing linebacker. He is also well-suited to play in a 4-3 defensive front as a defensive end.
As a senior, Kerrigan is more polished than many of his defensive line counterparts. He has a wide array of pass rushing moves and techniques in his arsenal. In addition, he is said to have a great motor, similar to the 49ers top defensive lineman Justin Smith.
Kerrigan would look great playing the opposite side from Justin Smith and would give the 49ers two high-energy, high-production, high-effort defensive ends. I believe he would be a very good fit for the 49ers.
6) Marcel Dareus: Defensive Tackle
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Marcel Dareus is a big, strong inside defender. He will be a force to reckon with for any offensive line. Dareus stands 6'4" and weighs in at 306 lbs...
Dareus missed two games this season due to a suspension for receiving improper benefits. That, however, should not affect his draft position.
The San Francisco 49ers are not likely to re-sign nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin this offseason. He carries a hefty price tag and after holding out for the entire preseason, did not have the kind of season the 49ers were counting on. The Niners would be wise to allocate that money to acquire other players.
Marcel Dareus has the size and strength to be a strong nose tackle in the NFL and that would allow the Niners to move Ricky Jean-Francois to the outside, where he could supplant Isaac Sopoaga. Dareus is the kind of player that would demand a double team if playing the nose tackle position.
Dareus and Jean-Francois would be a solid tandem at defensive tackle, if the Niners move to a four-man defensive front.
North Carolina defensive end Robert Quinn could have been slotted in right about here. However, he displayed a huge lack of judgement and major character flaws by taking improper benefits worth thousands of dollars. He knew better but did it anyway. He was suspended by the NCAA and had to forego his senior season, thereby hurting his team and his personal chances of being a top NFL draft pick. The 49ers do not need people of this character on their team, so I have left him completely off the Top 10 list.
Trade Down in the Draft
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San Francisco 49ers team president Jed York is actively searching for a GM to lead the 49ers back to being a consistent playoff contender. The new GM will then be responsible for hiring a head coach to replace the recently fired Mike Singletary. The GM will also turn his attention to the upcoming draft.
My recommendation for the new GM is if you are unable to get one of the top five players I am listing in this report, trade your pick down for multiple picks. I believe that any of the top five players I have noted are great fits for the 49ers and will be impact players. Beyond these five players, there is more uncertainty.
If the 49ers cannot get one of these top five players, my approach would be to trade down just a few notches in the first round and also acquire an additional second-round pick or perhaps a third for 2011 and 2012.
There are plenty of good players available between pick No. 6 and pick No. 20. Moving down and acquiring an additional draft pick or two would be wise for San Francisco. The 49ers need to strengthen several positions, so if they cannot draft one of the impact players I note in my top five, moving down will give them the opportunity to fill multiple holes.
5) Prince Amukamara: Cornerback
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In addition to having a cool name, Prince Amukamara is an outstanding cornerback. In 2009, as a junior, he had five interceptions and 64 tackles, emerging as one of the top defensive players in college football.
His 2010 numbers are down, largely because opposing offenses will not throw against him.
Prince Amukamara has good size at 6'1", 205 lbs. He, like Patrick Peterson, would fill a big need for the 49ers at the cornerback position.
Although not the owner of blazing, elite-level speed, Amukamara is a very good cover corner. He has excellent instincts and is a fine playmaker. In addition, he is a good tackler and solid in run support.
As a senior, Prince Amukamara has experience to go along with his athletic prowess. I have him rated as the top senior available on the defensive side of the football.
4) Da'Quan Bowers: Defensive End
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Clemson defensive end Da'Quan Bowers has had a monster junior season. After two solid years, Bowers has burst onto the scene as the top pass-rushing defensive end in college football.
Bowers has decent size and explosive speed off the end and would fill a huge need for the 49ers as a pass rusher. Bowers has 16 sacks and 61 tackles in this, his junior season. As a likely high first-round draft pick, Bowers will most probably enter the NFL Draft.
The 49ers have had almost no pass rush from starting defensive end Isaac Sopoaga. Sopoaga is a good run defender but not an effective pass rusher. He has just 1.5 sacks this season.
Given the 49ers' deficiencies in the defensive backfield, there is a major need to upgrade the pass rush in order to help hide that glaring weakness. As the best pass-rushing defensive end in the collegiate game, Bowers will instantly upgrade this area.
In addition, with the 49ers hiring a new coach, it remains to be seen whether they will go with a 3-4 or 4-3 defensive front. Da'Quan Bowers has the skill set to play in either scheme.
3) Nick Fairley: Defensive End / Defensive Tackle
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Nick Fairley is a big, powerful and athletic defensive lineman. He plays inside in Auburn's 4-3 defense but has the athleticism to play at the end position in a 3-4.
Nick Fairley is the type of defensive force that can wreak havoc on an opposing offense. At 6'5" and 298 lbs, Fairley combines strength with surprising speed for such a big man. His 40-yard dash time was clocked at 4.83 seconds.
Fairley has 11 sacks and 51 tackles, including 21.5 tackles for loss this year. Although not quite the pass rusher that Da'Quan Bowers is, Fairley is probably the better all-around player, although it's just by a narrow margin. He is the closest thing to a "can't miss" defensive lineman there is on the board for 2011.
Nick Fairley would fit right into the current 49ers defensive alignment at the end position, replacing Isaac Sopoaga. If the Niners decide to move to a 4-3, he would be a disruptive force at one of the defensive tackle spots.
2) Patrick Peterson: Cornerback
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If the 49ers are unable to get Andrew Luck, my pick, if available, would be cornerback Patrick Peterson, out of LSU. He combines size, athleticism and speed and would be a welcome addition to a very porous defensive secondary in San Francisco.
At 6'1" and 222 lbs, Peterson is bigger than most cornerbacks and quite physical. He emerged as a starter for LSU midway in his freshman season and the junior has been there ever since. Peterson has excellent coverage skills and the potential to be a lockdown corner for the 49ers.
The current 49ers corner, Nate Clements, had his second sub-par year in a row (2009 was lost due to injury), and carrying a hefty price tag at over $7 million for 2011, the 49ers could draft Peterson and let Clements go. The alternative would be for Clements to move to a nickel back or perhaps to safety, where his diminishing coverage abilities would not be so pronounced.
Patrick Peterson won the 2010 Bednarik Award as the country's top collegiate defensive player and also the Thorpe Award as the nation's top defensive back.
Peterson could also help the 49ers in the return game, as he has excelled in this capacity on both punt and kickoff returns at LSU. Peterson has returned two punts for touchdowns this year.
1) Andrew Luck: Quarterback
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Andrew Luck is the top quarterback and top-rated player for the 2011 NFL Draft, if he opts to leave school early. Luck has completed his second year of college eligibility and is in his third year as a student at Stanford. The San Francisco 49ers should do everything possible to get him.
Andrew Luck is the most polished quarterback to come out of college since Peyton Manning. All of the top teams in the NFL have a quarterback that you would rate as an A, A-, or, at worst, a B level. The San Francisco 49ers quarterbacks rated a D or F level this past season. While their dismal record was not entirely their fault, poor quarterback play was a major problem.
Andrew Luck is a franchise-caliber quarterback and the 49ers must move aggressively to get a deal done with Carolina. The Panthers selected Jimmy Clausen in the first round last year, but he has not impressed them. They may be looking to take Luck but could be enticed with a big offer, because they have many holes to fix..
It will not be cheap, but with multiple draft picks in 2011, the 49ers may have enough to get a deal done. The new GM must be willing to put together a creative package to move up and get Luck.
At 6'4" and 235 lbs, Andrew Luck possesses a strong and accurate arm, along with excellent size and strength. In the 2010 season at Stanford, Luck completed 245 passes in 349 attempts, a 70.2 percent rate. Luck also threw for 3,051 yards, 28 touchdowns and only seven interceptions.
Showing good pocket awareness and mobility, Luck was sacked only five times. He also rushed for 438 yards in 51 attempts, an 8.6-yard average.
In addition to the strong, accurate arm and mobility the 49ers would get from Andrew Luck, he also brings several intangibles that make him the most NFL-ready quarterback to come out of college in over a decade.
Andrew Luck's dad, Oliver Luck, was an NFL quarterback and his coach at Stanford, Jim Harbaugh, was also a very good NFL quarterback. Luck has therefore received excellent tutelage at the quarterback position.
Stanford also runs a pro-style offense and Luck has guided that with precision. His knowledge of the game, intelligence and ability to read defenses are also huge benefits that he will bring to any NFL team.
Although not a rah-rah guy along the lines of Tim Tebow, Luck is a very well-respected leader among his teammates. He also has a humble, down-to-Earth personality, again, similar to Peyton Manning.
It will not be cheap for the San Francisco 49ers to move up to get Andrew Luck. I would offer my 2011 Round 1 pick, No. 7 overall. I would also include the Round 3 and one of my Round 4 draft selections. I would also offer my second and third in 2012. If the deal required the first and third in 2012, instead of the second and third, I would still make the trade.
Franchise quarterbacks do not come along very often and Andrew Luck will be a franchise quarterback for years to come.
The 2011 Draft Must Produce Big Results for the 49ers
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The 2011 draft is critical to the San Francisco 49ers, as they attempt to reverse the losing trend of the past several years. The Niners have many holes to fill, but first and foremost is to obtain a top flight quarterback, which is why I would make every effort to get Andrew Luck.
If the 49ers are unsuccessful in making a deal to get Luck, they will need to make a trade or sign a decent free-agent quarterback or 2011 will be another season of mediocrity. I have identified the other top ten players I believe could immediately fix some of the problems this team faces.
The only exception to this would be if the 49ers chose Cam Newton. I believe he is more of a long-term investment. Newton would greatly benefit from a year or two of learning from someone like Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton or Donovan McNabb.
The 49ers currently have nine selections in the upcoming draft. If they can parlay some of those picks to get Andrew Luck, that would be ideal. If they cannot, then they need to get at least three quality starters out of those picks, along with some good role players and special teamers. The 49ers cannot afford any more busts like Alex Smith, Kentwan Balmer, Rashaun Woods and Glen Coffee.
In addition, some of the other high draft picks the 49ers have chosen in recent years must step up and 2011 is the time for them to emerge as top-quality NFL players. These players include Chilo Rachal, Anthony Davis, Taylor Mays and even Joe Staley, who has missed several games in the past two years due to injuries.
Let's hope the new 49er GM makes the right call on this year's draft picks. With an infusion of some good young talent, plus a couple of impact free agents, the 49ers can turn their fortunes around quickly. I believe with the right moves, the San Francisco 49ers are not that far away from being a perennial playoff team again.
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