NFL Bold Picks for Week 16 Against the Spread: Barking Browns To Beat Ravens
Week 16 in the NFL is a very boring slate of games. With the exception of a few games that feature some teams fighting for a playoff spot, it’s a snooze-fest.
That could explain the season I am having picking games, but if anything I am persistent. I was 8-8 last week and that brings my season total against the spread to 102-117-2.
There are just two weeks left on the season, so with a mad rush to get back to .500 here are the NFL picks for every game in Week 16.
Carolina at Pittsburgh
1 of 16
Carolina at Pittsburgh
8:20 PM NFL
Heinz Field
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Steelers listed as 13.5 point favorites.
The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Carolina Panthers with virtually nothing to play for. Troy Polamalu will sit out this game with an Achilles injury and although tight end Heath Miller should see some playing time, it’s just a tune up for the playoffs.
The Steelers have secured the two seed in the AFC (for the most part) and will play accordingly.
The Steelers are 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater and just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater overall. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in December and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.
The Panthers have a surprisingly statistically sound defense and will keep this game close.
Panthers +13.5
Dallas at Arizona
2 of 16
Dallas at Arizona
7:30 PM NFL
U of Phoenix Stadium
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Cowboys listed as seven point favorites.
The Dallas Cowboys are playing much better than Arizona but a good dash of embarrassment will change that.
The Cardinals were beat up by the Panthers, one of the worst teams in the NFL, and need a win to forget about that game.
The Cardinals are at home on Christmas and that should inspire them to play hard in front of the home crowd.
The Cardinals have been a tough team to wager on all season, but they do well as a home underdog. The Cardinals are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
The Cowboys are a tough team to back as a favorite on the NFL highway. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a losing home record.
The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and the Cardinals will win this game outright behind a great game from the rookie quarterback.
Arizona +7
Washington at Jacksonville
3 of 16
Washington at Jacksonville
1:00 PM FOX
EverBank Field
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Jaguars listed as seven point favorites.
The Jaguars are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Redskins are just fighting to stay together as a team. Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan demoted quarterback Donovan McNabb to the third string QB this week and McNabb announced to the press that he was “insulted”.
The McNabb experiment in Washington is now officially a failure.
However this does not mean the Redskins will get beat. Rex Grossman is getting another shot at life in the NFL and he made an interesting comeback attempt against the Cowboys that just fell short. The Jags are an improving team but this number is too big for them to cover.
The Redskins are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog. The Jaguars are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in December and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.
The Jags win but the Redskins keep it close.
Redskins +7
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Detroit at Miami
4 of 16
Detroit at Miami
1:00 PM FOX
Sun Life Stadium
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Dolphins listed as 3.5 point favorites.
This is one of the games on the NFL schedule for Week 16 that you might as well pass on. This could easily be one of the worst games to watch this weekend.
The Lions achieved one of their many goals by winning a road game in the NFL and will show up flat for this game.
The Dolphins gagged away their playoff chances last week in a loss to the Bills at home. The only interesting story line for this game will be the talk about Bill Cowher coming to coach the Dolphins next year.
The Lions are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The edge goes to the Dolphins as the Lions show up flat for this contest as they are playing out the string.
Dolphins -3.5
San Francisco at St. Louis
5 of 16
San Francisco at St. Louis
1:00 PM FOX
Edward Jones Dome
This is the first exciting game on the schedule that has serious playoff implications. Well it may not be exciting but the winner will be the front runner for the pathetic NFC West.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Rams listed as 2.5 point favorites.
How funny would it be if the Niners made the playoffs? Mike Singletary is surely fired and the quarterback position is in desperate need of anyone that can lead a team. With that said the Niners beat the Rams already and match up well.
The 49ers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and 18-8-4 ATS in their last 30 games following a loss of more than 14 points.
The Rams are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 against the NFC West and 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a home favorite.
The 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings and as much as I hate to say it, are still alive to make the postseason.
49ers +1.5
Tennessee at Kansas City
6 of 16
Tennessee at Kansas City
1:00 PM CBS
Arrowhead Stadium
Is it time for the NFL and its fans to finally acknowledge the Chiefs are for real? They are playing solid, yet safe football, and running the ball.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Chiefs listed as five point favorites.
The Titans are having a down year but they play a similar type of offense that will lead to a low scoring, close game. I can’t see the Titans actually winning this game, but I do see a close game.
The Chiefs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. The Titans are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and Jeff Fisher will have this team playing until the season is over.
Titans +5
NY Jets at Chicago
7 of 16
NY Jets at Chicago
1:00 PM CBS
Soldier Field
The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets on Sunday. Although the Bears clinched their division with a convincing win over the Vikings, they are still not getting respect as potential Super Bowl contender.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Bears listed as 1.5 point favorites.
Meanwhile the Jets are dealing with tabloid media over a possible Rex Ryan foot fetish over football. Give me a break. The Jets are too good of a football team to be concerned with that sort of thing.
New York needs one win to secure a playoff berth but it won’t be easy on the road. The Bears are still playing for the potential of a first-round bye. The Bears offensive line will be tested against a better front than they faced against the Vikings.
The Jets can play well on the road and will catch the Bears on a short week. The Jets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games and 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0 and 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
The Jets win and get a playoff berth.
Jets +1.5
New England at Buffalo
8 of 16
New England at Buffalo
1:00 PM CBS
Ralph Wilson Stadium
The New England Patriots will be headed to Buffalo this week in what seems like a meaningless game, but the Pats have something to play for. A win by the Patriots would clinch their seventh division title in eight seasons and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Patriots listed as nine point favorites.
The Patriots will not rest anyone in this AFC East division clash, and may need a good effort with the recent improvement that the Bills have shown. The Bills are off a huge win on the road against the Miami Dolphins and are looking for a three game winning streak.
It’s hard to bet against a Patriots team that has played so well in Buffalo (6-0 ATS in Buffalo and 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings) but Buffalo can keep this within nine points.
The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four home games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has looked solid under center and the Bills defense is playing inspired football.
Buffalo +9
Baltimore at Cleveland
9 of 16
Baltimore at Cleveland
1:00 PM CBS
Cleveland Browns Stadium
The Cleveland Browns host the Baltimore Ravens in my Upset Alert Game of the Week. That is a big fancy title for a game that I think the underdog has a realistic chance of winning.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Ravens listed as 3.5 point favorites.
The Ravens have everything to lose in this game as they need a win to secure a playoff spot and if they were to lose things could get sticky. They would then need to start scoreboard watching and hope for losses from Kansas City, Jacksonville, San Diego and Indianapolis.
The Browns have sat out McCoy and Hillis all week due to an illness, but both are expected to play. If not then the line on this game and the pick will be drastically different. The home divisional dog is always a great pick this time of year. Although the Browns are out of the playoffs they would love nothing more than to beat the division rival Ravens.
The Ravens are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six against the AFC North. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a winning road record.
Browns +3.5
Houston at Denver
10 of 16
Houston at Denver
4:05 PM CBS
Invesco Field at Mile High
The game between the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos will not have much meaning, but all eyes will be on Denver quarterback Tim Tebow as he makes his second start of the year.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have Houston listed as three point favorites.
Tebow in his first start looked mostly like a rushing quarterback. He was sacked twice and completed two of seven passes out of the shotgun while Denver went two for 12 on third down. He is not ready yet to be an NFL quarterback but he does bring leadership, energy and excitement to the team and the fan base.
Tebow will be facing a 30th ranked defense in the Houston Texans. The Texans are having some hard luck losses this year, losing late in games they should win. They will be flat for this meaningless game while Tebow will be looking to silence his critics with a win.
The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0 and will win this game outright.
Broncos +3
San Diego at Cincinnati
11 of 16
San Diego at Cincinnati
4:05 PM CBS
Paul Brown Stadium
At the start of the year this game may have looked pretty good on the schedule as a game that could change the landscape of the NFL playoffs. Not anymore.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Chargers listed as seven point favorites.
The Chargers must win both games on the road to end the season and hope that Kansas City struggles down the stretch if they want any hope at a playoff game. The Bengals are eyeing a possible change at head coach, quarterback and an early first round draft pick.
The Bengals are a mess and will be missing Terrell Owens and possibly Chad Ochocinco.
The Bolts are 5-1 ATS in the last six games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Bengals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 against the AFC and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Bengals have given up on the season and will tank this game.
Chargers -7
Indianapolis at Oakland
12 of 16
Indianapolis at Oakland
4:05 PM CBS
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
It will be interesting to see what teams actually show up when the Oakland Raiders host the Indianapolis Colts.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Colts listed as three point favorites.
The Colts looked great in their win over the Jaguars last week, but for most of the year they have seemed vulnerable. The Raiders have had flashes of brilliance but struggled at points during the season.
This will only be Peyton Manning's second trip to the Black Hole, and it will be a tough game for him to win. He looked great against the Jags because the running game was working, but against the Raiders that will be tougher than it looks.
The Raiders are 5-0 in division games and visit Kansas City in their finale, but will need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs.
The Colts are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in Week 16. The Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
A desperate Raiders team playing at home will upset the visiting Colts.
Raiders +3
NY Giants at Green Bay
13 of 16
NY Giants at Green Bay
4:15 PM FOX
Lambeau Field
The Green Bay Packers will get Aaron Rodgers back in the lineup for a game against the stunned New York Giants.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Packers listed as three point favorites.
The Giants are off the worst loss of the season, maybe in franchise history, as they squandered a 31-10 lead to the Eagles that cost them the NFC East. This will be one of the most intriguing games to watch this week as both teams need a win to get to the playoffs. The Giants need a win to clinch a spot and the Packers need to win both games to get a spot. This makes this a very crucial game for both teams.
The Giants are 4-11 ATS against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in the last five games following a loss. The Packers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.
The Giants will still be suffering from a hangover from the loss to the Eagles and the Packers win with Rodgers back under center.
Packers -3
Seattle at Tampa Bay
14 of 16
Seattle at Tampa Bay
4:15 PM FOX
Raymond James Stadium
This game is not as interesting as the Giants vs. Packers, but the playoff implications still exist.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Buccaneers are listed as six point favorites.
The Buccaneers need to win out and get some help from some other teams if they want to make the playoffs, and thanks to a wretched division, the Seahawks still have a chance to win the NFC West.
Seattle is playing some very bad football on both sides of the ball, and although quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has looked horrible head coach Pete Carroll plans on sticking with him for the rest of the season. This will be a mistake and the Seahawks cannot stop anyone on defense right now.
The Seahawks are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog and 7-18-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Buccaneers are 4-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record and will destroy the Birds at home and cover the number.
Bucs -6
Minnesota at Philadelphia
15 of 16
Minnesota at Philadelphia
8:20 PM NBC
Lincoln Financial Field
The Sunday Night Football Game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings is a “flex” game and supposedly chosen by football fans. The fans want to see Michael Vick.
The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Eagles listed as 14 point favorites. I don’t know how this game can be selected over some of the other great games on tap for Sunday for any other reason. The Vikings have given up.
Adrian Peterson is hurt, Brett Favre is out and the defense looks bad. The Vikings are playing on a short week and don’t have a chance in this game. The most they can hope for is a letdown by the Eagles after a big win over the Giants.
The Vikings are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog and 0-7 ATS in the last seven games against a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game and should easily beat the Vikings.
Eagles -14
New Orleans at Atlanta
16 of 16
New Orleans at Atlanta
8:30 PM
Georgia Dome
The Monday Night Football Game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons is the best game of the week. The latest NFL sports betting odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Falcons listed as 2.5 point favorites.
The fantastic Falcons look to clinch their first division title in six years and secure homefield advantage with a win over the division rival Saints on Monday night. The Saints need just one win in the last two games to clinch a berth on the playoffs. This game should feature a heated battle between two rivals, both battling for a playoff spot.
If the Saints hope to beat the Falcons at home, they will need to attack Matt Ryan. Since Ryan took over at quarterback the Falcons have been nearly unstoppable at home. Ryan has won 15 straight in Atlanta and is 19-1 all-time at the Georgia Dome.
The Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record, and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the NFC.
The Falcons are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a winning road record.
These games are always close and with that in mind I will take the points and the Saints looking for revenge.
Saints +2.5
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com.
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