NFL Rankings: Who Will Rise and Fall In MVP Race This Week?
With just three weeks left in the regular season, the NFL MVP race is really heating up.
Some early favorites, like Peyton Manning, have fallen well out of contention, while some dark horses are making a late charge for the league's top individual award.
I've already decided on my current top 10, so here's what we're going to do.
I'll rank my 10 favorites, predict how they'll play in Week 15, then debate whether they'll rise or fall because of their performances.
Sound good?
Alright, let's get to it.
Here are my thoughts on how the NFL's MVP race is shaping up.
10. Dwayne Bowe
1 of 10
Why He's Here: Dwayne Bowe has just one reception for three yards in his last two games, but it's hard to overlook Bowe's incredible seven-game stretch from Weeks 6 through 12.
During that span, Bowe had four 100-yard performances, five games with at least two touchdown catches and 13 total touchdown receptions.
For the season, Bowe's caught 59 passes for 888 yards and 14 touchdowns and has the Kansas City Chiefs positioned for a spot in the playoffs.
How He'll Play: The Chiefs face the St. Louis Rams this week, who give up 228 passing yards but just 20.6 points per game.
If Matt Cassel plays, as is expected, Bowe should break out of his slump and go for 70 or 80 yards and a touchdown.
But if Brodie Croyle plays, Bowe is in trouble.
Will He Rise or Fall: Bowe's a very long shot at best to win the award, but he'll fall completely out of consideration this week.
His yards and number of catches aren't really that high to begin with, and his quarterback situation is a bit tricky because he'll probably be playing with Cassel, who won't be 100 percent.
9. Arian Foster
2 of 10
Why He's Here: The Houston Texans may be out of the playoff race, but Arian Foster has been arguably the most consistent running back in the NFL this season.
Foster has 1,330 rushing yards (on a 5.0 yards per carry average), he's caught 54 passes for 504 yards and has racked up 15 total touchdowns.
The undrafted back out out of Tennessee has gotten into the end zone in all but one game since Week 6.
How He'll Play: Foster has the potential for a monster day in Week 15 against the Tennessee Titans.
The last time he played the Titans Foster ran for 143 yards, and Tennessee gives up 120.6 rushing yards per game on the season.
I'd expect Foster to go over 100 yards rushing, add another 30 or 40 through the air and get into the end zone at least once.
Will He Rise or Fall: Foster doesn't have a great chance at winning the award because Houston is 5-8, but if the Texans can finish at 8-8, hell get some votes.
There's no doubt Foster should rise in the rankings this week, because he's playing a slumping Tennessee team that's lost six straight games.
8. Roddy White
3 of 10
Why He's Here: The Atlanta Falcons are tied for the NFL's best record at 11-2, and Roddy White is a big reason why.
White ranks first in the NFL in catches (99) and receiving yards (1,219) but will probably split some votes with Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan.
The one knock on White's performance this season has been his inability to get into the end zone—he has just seven touchdown catches.
How He'll Play: The Falcons play the Seattle Seahawks this week, and Seattle gives up 25.3 points and 266 passing yards per game.
In a loss to San Francisco last week, the Seahawks gave up 80 yards and a touchdown to two players.
Expect much of the same from White, who should top 100 yards on eight catches and score one touchdown.
Will He Rise or Fall: White's lack of touchdowns will hurt him when it comes time to vote, but he'll take a step up the ladder this week.
Seattle's just too bad, and White has the potential to break off a big play or two before the game gets out of hand.
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7. David Garrard
4 of 10
Why He's Here: David Garrard is in the midst of his best season as a pro, and the Jacksonville Jaguars are in position to do what no one thought was possible: dethrone the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South.
Garrard has 2,100 yards passing, a quarterback rating of 93.2 and 24 total touchdowns.
Though his numbers aren't jaw-dropping, he's led the Jaguars to wins in five of their last six games and is a Week 15 win away from heading to the playoffs.
How He'll Play: The Jaguars take on those Colts this week, and Indianapolis' inability to stop the run should really open up the pass.
Last week against the Colts, Kerry Collins threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns.
And while Garrard's yardage total won't be that high, I could see him hitting Marcedes Lewis or Maurice Jones-Drew for a couple scores.
Garrard should wind up with about 200 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Will He Rise or Fall: Garrard would rise this week if he were on any other team, but fellow teammate Jones-Drew may prevent that from happening.
I'd expect Garrard to stay right where he is.
6. Philip Rivers
5 of 10
Why He's Here: Philip Rivers has a leg up on the competition—he's already played 14 games—but he's been one of the most consistent performers in the NFL all season.
The San Diego Chargers have had a plethora of injuries, and Rivers has still managed to put up some incredible numbers.
He's got 4,141 passing yards, 29 touchdown passes and a quarterback rating of 105.7.
No one's performed better with a ton of obstacles than Rivers has.
How He'll Play: Rivers already played last night, so let's look ahead to Week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals give up 26.5 points and 223.1 passing yards per game. They've limited Ben Roethlisberger and Mark Sanchez recently but also got burned by Drew Brees two weeks ago.
Cincinnati is too up and down, and the Chargers will throw the ball pretty much no matter what.
Rivers should be good for 250 yards and three touchdowns. After all, it is December.
Will He Rise or Fall: Rivers could easily rise into the top two or three by the end of the season, but I have him at No. 6 because the Chargers' record isn't as good as it should be.
I think Rivers does move up to No. 4 or 5 this week if he performs like I expect him to.
5. Matt Cassel
6 of 10
Why He's Here: Not only has Matt Cassel turned Dwayne Bowe into a superstar but he's turned himself into one as well.
Though Cassel missed last week's game after an emergency appendectomy, Cassel still has a quarterback rating of 98.3, has thrown for 2,500 yards, and has tossed 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
He's only been picked off once since Week 3, which can't be said for any other quarterback (almost) on this list.
Cassel has done the best job of keeping his team from losing, even if he doesn't always lead them to victory.
How He'll Play: Cassel's Chiefs take on the Rams this week, and his status is still up in the air.
If he's good to go, he won't be facing a great St. Louis defense but a good one nonetheless.
Still, with Kansas City's No. 1 rushing attack and Cassel's health status a pretty big question mark, he probably won't have a great statistical performance,
It wouldn't be shocking to see him throw for less than 200 yards and just one touchdown..
Will He Rise or Fall: Cassel won't be 100 percent even if he plays, and his production will suffer because of it.
I'd expect Cassel to drop behind Rivers and possibly Garrard after Week 15.
4. Matt Ryan
7 of 10
Why He's Here: Roddy White has played a key role in Atlanta's magical run, but it's no secret that the team's success begins with Matt Ryan.
Ryan, who's undefeated at home this season and has just one career home loss, has thrown for more than 3,100 yards and tossed 22 touchdowns to just eight interceptions.
His numbers aren't as gaudy as other quarterbacks, but team success plays a key role in MVP voting.
It's hard to overlook Atlanta's 11-2 record.
How He'll Play: As you read in the earlier slide, the Falcons take on the Seahawks this week and Seattle's looked pretty bad for most of the season.
Alex Smith threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns last week, and Matt Cassel threw for 233 yards and four touchdowns against the Seahawks three weeks ago.
Ryan is salivating.
He should have a performance similar to those guys. I'll go with 240 yards and three touchdowns on the day.
Will He Rise or Fall: Ryan won't drop in the rankings after playing Seattle, but the only way I see him moving up is if the guys in front of him really screw up.
He'll probably stay at this spot unless something unforeseen happens.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew
8 of 10
Why He's Here: Maurice Jones-Drew's stats aren't as good a few other NFL running backs, but he's still put up impressive numbers.
Jones-Drew has racked up 1,278 rushing yards, nearly 300 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns.
By no means is that great, but it's when he's gotten those numbers that really counts.
Jones-Drew has rushed for at least 100 yards in six straight games, five of them being Jacksonville wins.
How He'll Play: The Jaguars take on the Colts this week, and boy, oh boy, does Indianapolis struggle against the run.
The Colts allow 141.1 rushing yards per game, and they gave up more than 100 yards to Chris Johnson last week and over 180 to the Tashard Choice-Felix Jones tandem two weeks ago.
Though Jones-Drew has been splitting carries with Rashad Jennings, he still sees the bulk of the action and should have no trouble topping 100 yards and scoring at least one touchdown.
Will He Rise or Fall: Given the guys ahead of him I'll say that Jones-Drew will stay in third after this week.
But if he goes off, which is certainly possible, he'll steal some votes without a doubt.
2. Michael Vick
9 of 10
Why He's Here: Despite missing three games this season, Michael Vick has still had an incredible season for the Philadelphia Eagles.
He's got a quarterback rating of 104.3, he's thrown for 2,500 yards, rushed for nearly 500 yards and accounted for 24 total touchdowns (with just four interceptions).
Vick has the Eagles primed for a playoff spot, and he's made that team's offense damn near unstoppable every time he steps on the field.
How He'll Play: A good way to fall down the MVP ladder is to face the No. 1 defense of the New York Giants, which Vick will do this week.
In their first meeting between these two teams, Vick did account for nearly 300 total yards but he scored just one touchdown.
I think we'll see something similar this time around, with Vick getting his yardage but failing to get in the end zone more than once.
Will He Rise or Fall: If Vick continues to throw interceptions—he has four in his last three games—it still won't matter.
I think the gap between Vick (and the No. 1 on this list) is too great for those other guys to catch up, barring any total meltdown by Vick.
1. Tom Brady
10 of 10
Why He's Here: You could probably just hand Tom Brady this award based on what the New England Patriots did to the Chicago Bears and the New York Jets the last two weeks.
But let's dig a little deeper.
Brady's thrown for nearly 3,400 yards, has a league-high quarterback rating of 109.9, has accounted for 30 total touchdowns and thrown just four interceptions.
He's done all that without a sexy supporting cast, too.
How He'll Play: Brady has a tough match-up this week against the Green Bay Packers, who boast the league's No. 3 pass defense and No. 1 scoring defense.
But he's had bad match-ups the last two weeks, and he threw for almost 700 total yards and six touchdowns.
Brady's also topped at least 325 passing yards and has 10 total touchdowns over the last three weeks.
Match-ups don't seem to matter to him.
Will He Rise or Fall: At this point, Brady will be the NFL MVP unless something crazy happens.
He's been remarkably impressive, and the one guy closest to him (Vick) has missed too much game time.
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