Week 15 NFL Predictions Against the Spread:NFL Upsets, Blow-Outs, and Best Bets
Week 15 in the NFL is arguably the best weekend in the NFL to date.
The schedule is filled with rivalry games and match-ups that will have an effect on the playoffs picture in both conferences. More than a handful of teams in the league are in a must win situation and some of those teams face off in week 15.
Just like some of those different teams, I am in a must win situation. My overall record on making picks on every game for every week has yielded a record of 94-109-2. My best bets are doing much better, so for this week, I will label my top seven picks of the week.
Here are the NFL picks, predictions, and upsets for week 15.
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers
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Thursday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers
The week kicks off with a must win game for both teams on Thursday Night Football. The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Chargers listed as eight point home chalk.
The 49ers have already announced that Alex Smith will get the start at quarterback after his impressive outing against Seattle. Smith will have a more difficult time of performing at that level this week.
The Chargers defense leads the NFL in many defensive categories. They rank first in yards allowed and first in yards per attempt. They are third in passes allowed for first downs and pressure opposing quarterbacks at an alarming rate. The secondary, which is made up of Quentin Jammer, Antoine Cason, Eric Weddle can blanket wide outs and that allows the players up front to pressure the quarterback. The Chargers are third in the league in sacks and will harass Smith all night long.
The Chargers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite, and 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. The 49ers are 5-21-3 ATS in their last 29 games following a win of more than 14 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Chargers -8
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (BEST BET)
The Denver Broncos are a team in turmoil after their head coach was fired and a trip to the Black Hole to play the Raiders could make things worse.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Raiders listed as a touchdown favorite over the AFC West rival Broncos.
The Broncos are off an embarrassing loss against the Cardinals and if they have any pride they will play much harder in a rivalry game. The plan for now is that Kyle Orton will start at quarterback not Tim Tebow. However up to this point Tebow has taken more snaps in practice. This will allow the Broncos to use both quarterbacks in different formations that the Raiders will not be prepared for.
The Raiders are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, 17-35 ATS in their last 52 home games, and 18-39-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Oakland and the road team is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
The Broncos stun the Raiders and get the upset victory in the Black Hole.
Broncos +7
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
The Jacksonville Jaguars want fans to believe they are a playoff team. A season sweep against the Indianapolis Colts would solidify that belief.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Colts listed as five point favorites in a must win game against the Jaguars.
The Jaguars come from behind win against the Raiders was very impressive considering the trailed in the game, by ten points on more than one occasion. The Jags have always played well against the Colts and Maurice Jones-Drew should be getting a few looks as MVP.
The Colts have Peyton Manning and he can help them win any game, but the Jags defense knows how to play against him. The Colts defense is ranked 29th against the run and that will allow MJD to run all day over the Colts and control the time of possession.
The Jaguars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the AFC South, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog, and 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Indianapolis. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
The playoff chances begin to get fade for the Colts after the loss to the Jaguars.
Jags +5
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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
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Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (BEST BET)
The Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers will be engaged in a battle of two NFL teams destined to have early draft picks this spring.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Panthers listed as a one point home favorite over the Cardinals in the worst game of the week. Normally I would pass on this game and say it’s a snoozer, but I believe it is one of the better best of the week.
Jimmy Clausen is a rookie that is growing up quickly in this system and although he has had a terrible start to the season, he is becoming a leader. He apologized to the defense about his play and some of the veterans took notice. Like the Bills, the Panthers still play hard every week and the Cardinals have given up on the season and will be hard pressed to get up for this game on the road.
The Cardinals are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 road games against a team with a losing home record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games in December and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Panthers -1
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Two teams that are free falling at the end of the season meet when the Tennessee Titans host the Houston Texans. If there is a bad game on the schedule for this week this is it.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Titans listed as one point favorites over the hard-luck Texans.
The Titans have struggled since Vince Young was lost for the year due to a thumb injury and a bad attitude, and the Texans find ways to lose games every week. The main reason to watch this game will be the all-pro match up at running back between the Titans Chris Johnson and Houston’s Arian Foster.
The Texans are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games as an underdog and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Titans are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0 and will win and cover the small number in this divisional contest.
Bet against the bad defense of the Texans on a short week against the Titans at home.
Titans -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (BEST BET)
The NFC East is on the line when the New York Giants host the Philadelphia Eagles.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Giants listed as three point favorites over the Eagles in this huge divisional battle.
The Giants needed to prepare for this game off a short week after weather caused the game against the Vikings to be moved. That will be no problem for the giants who will be looking forward to this game since they lost in the first meeting.
The Giants are starting to get the ground game moving and now rank 4th in the NFL in total offense. The defense has been outstanding all year long and is currently the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL.
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and 2-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
The Giants played well defensively against quarterback Michael Vick in the first meeting and they will contain him again this week. The Giants defeat the Eagles and gain control in the race for the NFC East divisional title.
Giants -3
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
There is not much on the line for this NFC East battle, but the Dallas Cowboys against the Washington Redskins is still one of the best rivalries in the NFL.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Cowboys listed as six point favorites over the Redskins in a big rivalry game.
It will be interesting to see what team shows up for this week.
The Dallas Cowboys have played significantly better since Jason Garrett took over as head coach, but injuries are starting to mount.
Rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant is lost for the season and the Cowboys offense took another hit.
The Redskins are a disaster and after a heroic come back by Donovan McNabb against the Bucs, the Redskins botched the extra point to lose the game. This will give the team a “hangover” and look for a lackadaisical performance this week.
The Cowboys are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a losing road record and 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against the NFC East. The Redskins are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on turf and 5-19-3 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Cowboys win this divisional battle and cover the number.
Dallas -6
Kansas City at St. Louis Rams
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Kansas City at St. Louis Rams (BEST BET)
The St. Louis Rams are in a fierce battle to win the NFC West, and will have to beat the Kansas City Chiefs if they want to keep pace.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Kansas City Chiefs favored by two points in this out of conference meeting.
The Chiefs will supposedly get the services of quarterback Matt Cassel back in the lineup after missing the game against the Chargers. The Chiefs are just as desperate for a win as the Rams are.
The Chiefs strength is the running game, but the Rams are actually decent at stopping the run as they rank 12th in the league. The Rams play well at home and have won four of the last six in the dome.
The Rams rebound well after a beating as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 14 points. The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. The Chiefs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following loss against the spread and 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Chiefs continue to struggle and drop a crucial game on the road to the Rams.
Rams +2
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
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New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens try to recover on a short week to take on the quietly streaking New Orleans Saints.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Ravens listed as a one point home chalk over the high-flying Saints.
The Ravens do have a short week to prepare, but playing at home gives them a distinct advantage. Although the Ravens were put on the defensive side of the ball Monday Night, they did win the game with defense. The Ravens are still ferocious and attack opposing quarterbacks and that will be a concern of Drew Brees.
The Saints will be looking forward to a game for the division title and will not be up for the physical presence the Ravens bring to the game.
The Ravens are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 games as a home favorite and 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
The Saints lose a tough one on the road to a focused Ravens team.
Ravens -1
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (BEST BET)
The surprisingly talented Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the banged up Detroit Lions on Sunday.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Buccaneers listed as six point favorites over the always improving Lions.
The Buccaneers are still very alive in the race for a playoff spot and they need this victory against the Detroit Lions. The Lions are in the hunt for the first round draft pick, but they are still playing their hearts out.
The Lions have improved dramatically on defense and just completed a shutout of the Green Bay Packers, while knocking all-pro QB Aaron Rodgers out of the game.
The Lions are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Buccaneers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing road record.
If not for injuries the Lions would be a contender for the post season. The Lions still have something to play for this year as they want a road victory.
The Lions are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the Bucs and finally get a road win.
Lions +6
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
The quickly disappearing, always controversial, New York Jets try to get back on the winning track against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Steelers listed as six point home chalk over the fading Jets.
The Jets are in a tailspin of sorts and no have problems on the field and off the field.
Off the field the jets were involved in “trip-gate” The New York Jets' strength and conditioning coach has been suspended indefinitely for telling his players to try to interfere with the Miami Dolphins' kick coverage last Sunday. This has brought more negative attention to a team that cannot get the job done on the field.
Quarterback Mark Sanchez is taking the brunt of the abuse for lack of productivity on offense and they are even rumors that he could be benched.
The Steelers seem to be hitting their stride at the right moment and are playing some very good football. They Steelers have won four straight to include a crushing victory over the Bengals a week ago.
The Steelers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Jets are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss and 2-5 ATS in the last seven games overall.
The press will turn up the heat on the Jets this week as they come closer to missing the playoffs.
Steelers -6
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
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Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals will have to focus on taking shots at the Browns this week instead of each other.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Bengals listed as slim one point favorites over the Browns.
Disgruntled wide receiver Terrell Owens used his television show as a platform to bash his team and particularly the coaches. Although it is true on so many levels it did not sit well with members of the Bengals, most notably the coaching staff.
The Browns are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 road games against a team with a losing home record and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 against the AFC. The Bengals are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
The Browns announced that Colt McCoy will be the starting quarterback for the rest of the season and this is good news for Browns fans. McCoy looked good in his early starts and the Browns have a posit9ve future.
The underdog is 7-0 against the number and the Browns beat the down-and-out Bengals.
Browns +1.5
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks
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Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (BEST BET)
The high flying Atlanta Falcons look to avoid a look-ahead when they play against the Seattle Seahawks.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Falcons listed as six point favorites over the reeling Seahawks.
The Falcons will be playing their third road game in a row as they have just completed games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers. Both of those games were against divisional opponents and although the Seahawks are in the same conference, they are not in the same division. This could set up some letdown for the Falcons who have to travel coast –to-coast for their showdown. Finally to make matters worse, the Falcons host a huge game on Monday Night Football against the New Orleans Saints that will go a long way in deciding the winner of the NFC South.
The underdog is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six meetings and the Seahawks have always had a decisive home field advantage. The Seahawks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and they excel as home underdogs as evident by the 4-1 ATS record in their last five games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Seattle Seahawks stay in the race for the division title with an upset win over the road weary Falcons.
Seattle +6
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (BEST BET)
Miami continues their improbable run at the playoffs when they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have the Dolphins listed as 5.5 point favorites over the gutsy Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins need this win to stay alive in the playoff picture after a huge win over the New York Jets. The Bills are not going to have a winning season, but not for a lack of trying. The Bills are well coached and always give it their all when every time they take the field.
The Dolphins limited the Bills to a paltry 166 total yards and nine first downs in a 15-10 triumph at Buffalo in the season opener, the first of eight straight defeats for the Bills to begin the year. However it should be noted that current quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was not under center for that game. Fitzpatrick has been able to move the ball and is a great leader under center.
The Dolphins are 10-29 ATS in their last 39 games as a favorite, 6-27 ATS in their last 33 games as a home favorite, and 16-37-2 ATS in their last 55 home games against a team with a losing road record. The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight games overall.
The Dolphins will try and attack the weak run defense of the Bills which will eat up the clock. This would indicate a close, low scoring game, and taking the points is the way to go.
Buffalo +5.5
Green Bay at New England
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Green Bay at New England
The New England Patriots are being called the best team in football and will host the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have yet to post a line on this game, although the Patriots are assured to be favorites.
The Packers outstanding quarterback and leader, Aaron Rodgers, left the game against the Detroit Lions with a concussion. If he is unable to play Matt Flynn will get the call in New England.
The Patriots are dismantling every team they have faced of late so the Packers will struggle without Rodgers and have to rely on their defense.
Rookie cornerback Devin McCourty, did not practice on Wednesday as he tries to recover from a sore rib. Patriot’s receiver Deion Branch was limited in the team's Wednesday practice with a knee injury and is just one of a handful of players that are banged up.
Quarterback Tom Brady and defensive linemen Ron Brace, Myron Pryor, Mike Wright and Gerard Warren are all suffering from nagging injuries. It is more than likely that all of these players could see playing time and Brady is assured to play, but the list warrants watching.
The Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings and the Patriots are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Packers are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.
The Packers have a very good defense and that can keep this game close regardless who is at the helm for the Packers, although with Rodgers playing QB the packers can win the game.
Packers
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
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Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
The Monday night football game will be filled with plenty of sub-plots and freezing temperatures. Due to the collapse of the Metrodome the Vikings will play the Bears outside on Monday night Football.
The latest NFL sports betting odds posted by BetPhoenix have yet to post a line on this game, but expect the Bears to be favored with a rookie starting at quarterback for the Vikings.
The Bears are alive in the well in the post season and will be looking to make someone pay for their horrific performance a week ago against the Patriots. The Vikings will be looking to just try and field a healthy team.
Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson was placed on injured reserve and is done for the season. The Vikings countered by signing veteran Patrick Ramsey who could see playing time for this game. The only other option is rookie Joe Webb, who most likely will get the start.
Rest assured that Brett Favre is an option and the rumors will be swirling leading up to the game.
The Bears are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games.
The Vikings are 0-6 ATS against a team with a winning record, 1-4 ATS in their last five against the NFC North, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. This team is praying for an end to an already chaotic season.
The Vikings troubling season continues with a humiliating loss against the Chicago Bears.
Bears
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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