Week 14 Hot Starts and Cold Sits For Your Fantasy Football Playoffs!
FFArmory.com breaks down all of the not-so-obvious starts by position with an insane attention to statistics and detail.
QB - Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Jon Kitna, Tom Brady, Jay Cutler
RB - Pierre Thomas, Cedric Benson, Marshawn Lynch, Benjaryus Green-Ellis, Knowshon Moreno, James Starks, LaGarrette Blount, Tashard Choice.
WR - Donald Driver, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, Roy Williams, Malcom Floyd, Desean Jackson.
Who starts? Who sits? Keep clickin'!
Start Joe Flacco @ Houston
1 of 19
I think, going forward, we are going to just feature the first “Start ‘Em” QB for this piece as “insert name of QB not named Rusty here vs. Houston Texans”.
The Texans have allowed at least 21.7 fantasy points to 11 of 12 QB they have faced this season with the lone exception being our boy Rusty “Trombone” Smith of Tennessee Titans’ infamy.
Vick torched them last Thursday and made it look easy, but I suppose that is not saying much.
Houston currently ranks last in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Flacco is averaging 21.6 fantasy points against teams ranked in the bottom ten of fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Plug Flacco into your starting lineup this week, and smoke if ya got ‘em.
Start Tom Brady @ Chicago
2 of 19
Brady is averaging a fantasy wood-popping 300 yards and 2.75 TD over his last four games for an average of 29.7 fantasy points.
He scored 32.6 fantasy points in three of those four games. What’s more amazing than those league-leading fantasy stats is that he attempted 29 or less pass attempts in three of those four games.
This offense is clicking like the 2007 version of the Patriots, but they don’t have Randy Moss.
The Bears, on the other hand, do boast a pass D that has allowed the 4th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.
However, their schedule has been soft for the last eight games facing only Michael Vick and Ryan Fitzpatrick in that time.
The two combined to average 24.5 fantasy points, while the other six QBs were Jimmy Clausen, Matt Hasselbeck, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, Tyler Thigpen, & Drew Stanton.
The Bears will be watching the Jets/Pats game film all week, and Belicek knows it, so expect that he will have more tricks up his sleeve.
You can’t bench Brady against anyone going forward.
Start Jon Kitna Home Vs. Philadelphia
3 of 19
If you’ve been following us, and reading this name, you wouldn’t be out of line moving your mouse over to the contact@ffarmory.com button ready to fire off an inflammatory-esque “WTF are you talking about, dumb@$$” email.
But stick with me, here.
Ok, so he’s been held in check the past two weeks only throwing one TD pass by defenses that we shot holes in with our analysis (Saints and Colts).
Week 14, though, brings an Eagles pass defense that has allowed 19 TD passes over their last eight games.
Five of those eight QBs were Jay Cutler, Kerry Collins, Alex Smith, Matt Schaub, & Donovan Mcnabb – all of which rank 15th or lower in fantasy average points scored at the QB position.
The five QBs averaged 26.5 fantasy points in their matches with this defense and 22.8 fantasy points was the low among them.
The Eagles are allowing the ninth most fantasy points to opposing QBs.
Kitna has faced two pass defenses in the bottom 10 in that stat and is averaging 26.8 fantasy points.
Kitna should give you a good game this weekend
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Start Jay Cutler Home Vs. New England
4 of 19
I’m not too sure where this Patriot pass defense pulled their Monday night performance from holding the Dirty one to 10.2 fantasy points.
At first… and second glance, it wasn’t from their 2010 roster.
The Patriots are giving up the second most points to fantasy QBs this year thru 13 weeks of action and they have had an easy schedule against QBs.
Eight of the twelve QBs they have faced rank 13th or lower in average fantasy points scored at the position including five games against QBs ranked 24th or below in fantasy points scored at the position.
Part of what makes their pass defense look so bad (usually) is what makes this team so successful, their offense. They have been scoring in huge bunches (40 ppg over their last four weeks) forcing opposing QBs to average 45 pass attempts per game.
If you are worried about the Bears containing Brady, I guess I would tell you to just remember that the Patriots combined to score 84 points against the Steelers and Jets who rank second and sixth in points allowed this season.
Cutler should get 35 pass attempts as the Bears try to keep pace.
Start Benjarvus Green-Ellis @ Chicago
5 of 19
Man, does this guy have a lame nickname or what? The Law Firm? Really?
The way the Patriots offense is moving the ball, Green-Ellis is a must play every week no matter the opponent (or nickname).
He’s been given nine carries inside the 10 yard line over the past three weeks and has scored five times over the same time period.
He is averaging 4.55 YPC over his last four games. In two of the four games he averaged 4.41 yards per carry against a Steelers and Jets defense that rank one (3 YPC) and two (3.4 YPC) in yards per carry allowed.
The Bears average 3.7 YPC, so if you have the stones to bench him, go ahead, but as Hudson once said 24 years ago… “you can count me out”. Get him in there.
Start Knowshon Moreno @ Arizona
6 of 19
17.5 fantasy points per game over the last four, and that, my friends, is what I like to call “enough said”.
His opponents have not been cream-puffs either as all four games were against teams that rank in the top 15 in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Week 14 brings Moreno the NFL’s worst rush defense, that has managed to suck even worse than their norm over the last six games giving up an average of 28.3 fantasy points to RBs (including at least 15.5 fantasy points out to one RB).
The Cardinals have trailed in six of their last seven games heading into the fourth quarter which leads to plenty of rushing.
The only x-factor in this one is that McDaniels got S-canned this week, and Moreno, who has done a lot of fantasy damage through the air, might see more carries than catches.
That’s not really much of an x-factor in hindsight as the Cards are coughing up 4.4 YPC.
Start James Starks @ Detroit
7 of 19
Who, you ask? He’s that rookie dude that has been injured up until last week that is on the most explosive offense in the NFC.
Yeah, dats right. He was impressive in his first week of action rushing for 73 yards on 18 carries for a 4.1 YPC average against a 49ers team that is only allowing 3.6 YPC.
John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson combined for only 10 carries and 26 yards.
Starks’ 73 rushing yards was the second highest total for a Packer running back this year, so you can be sure that McCarthy is interested to know what he’s got in this kid for the playoff stretch run. McCarthy had this to say after the Week 13 win;
“ He falls forward and the bigger backs have that ability. And that’s the difference between second-and seven and second- and four”.
The Detroit Lions have allowed eight different RBs to have one of their two best fantasy performances of the year against them. Four different RBs have scored at least 29 fantasy points against Detroit.
Let someone else in your league bite on Marshawn Lynch this week while you grab Starks and plug him in as your RB2 or flex.
Start LaGarrette Blount @ Washington
8 of 19
Blount is for reals.
That wasn’t a typo, he gets a “S” added on because he lit up the Falcons aka the second-best rush defense in the NFL aka the only team that hadn’t let up a red-zone rushing TD until Blount this past week.
Owners of Blount are sitting there looking giddy as they scan the fantasy playoff schedule for this cat (Washington, Detroit, & Seattle who all rank in the bottom eight)
The Redskins, who by the stats, are the best remaining (allowing the eight- most fantasy points to RBs), but are actually playing a lot worse than that giving up 745 total yards to RBs and nine TDs over their last four games.
Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw became the first RBs this year to post double digit TDs (two each) in Week 13.
The ‘Skins suspended Haynesworth (who missed Week 13) for the season – notice any trends?
Plug Blount in for the rest of the season.
Start Tashard Choice Home Vs. Philadelphia
9 of 19
Jason Garrett is interviewing for his job for another month, and every win, hell, every play counts.
I wonder if the Cowboys are crunching the same stats that my man, Slam (ok his name is Cheddar), is, check it: in the four career games that Choice has received at least 17 carries, he is averaging 125 total yards and has scored three TDs for a 16.98 fantasy PPG average.
Marion Barber will most likely sit out another week and Felix Jones is not getting the job done averaging only four YPC and scoring zero rushing TDs this season on 133 attempts.
Choice should get all the work from 10 yards in and more than a few series in between the 20’s. He was given four of the five carries inside the opponent’s five yard line in Week 13.
The most important stat, though, can be found in the rushing attempt contrasts between the four games Jason Garrett (34 rush attempts per game) has coached, and the eight games that Wade Phillips (only 21 rush attempts per game) has coached.
Choice goes up against an Eagles defense that has allowed two rushing TDs per game to Jahvid Best, Keiland Williams, & Javarris James.
Choice makes for an intriguing flex play this week depending on what your options are. He should get a few looks inside the red-zone and a goal-line attempt or two.
Start Donald Driver @ Detroit
10 of 19
Wipe that look of shock off your face, please.
He has only made our start list one other time and that was in his first meeting with Detroit in which he scored 14.9 fantasy points - boo ya ka sha.
Driver lit up the Lions like it’s his job. And it IS his job. You see, he’s paid to light up all opponents, he just happens to do it with an odd level of regularity whether in Detroit or Green Bay, check it: Over his last six games against Detroit he has totaled 648 receiving yards and notched four TDs for a fantasy average of 14.8.
Dwayne Bowe leads all fantasy WRs with 14.4 PPG.
Driver has six 100 yard plus receiving games in his last 58 games; four have come against the Lions.
Start Mike Wallace
11 of 19
The Steelers seem bent on getting Wallace involved in the offense at nearly any measure.
They ran him in motion, on screens, and even a few slants in Week 13, and while it only amounted to 76 yards, it’s a clear sign that they understand who their real bread-winner is these days.
The Bengals have allowed three TDs of 28 yards or more and that is Wallace’s specialty.
Only two of Wallace’s 14 career TDs have been inside the RZ and none have been for less than 15 yards. Eight of his 14 TDs have been from 40+ yards. Robert Meachem has a game similar to Wallace (he has scored 10 of his 14 TDs the last two years from 30 yards out) and he caught a 52 yard bomb.
Start Roy Williams Home Vs. Philadelphia
12 of 19
Dez Bryant is out for the year and Jason Witten has a high ankle sprain so it’s time to plug Roy back into your lineup.
Bryant and Witten have combined for 95 targets or 13.6 per game since Kitna became the starter seven games ago. Williams should see his targets go up big the next couple of weeks.
The Eagles’ pass defense has been really bad over the last eight weeks (allowing 19 passing TDs).
Start Malcom Floyd Home Vs. Kansas City
13 of 19
It appears that his hamstring injury has healed as he was targeted a game-high 11 times last week hauling in five for 72 yards.
The Chargers are once again depleted at the receiver position with Legedu Naane and Vincent Jackson on the shelf and Gates hurting.
Rivers has not had a problem picking apart the Chiefs recently as he is averaging 309 yards and two-plus TDs in all five of the games he’s faced them.
There has been at least one WR on the Chargers reaching 83 yards in all five of the games, so Floyd is a solid WR2 this week.
Start DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin @ Dallas
14 of 19
Don’t be fooled by the two pick sixes last week vs. the Colts, the Dallas pass D also gave up a ton of yards over their last seven games– especially to WRs (1646 yards 14 TDs or 35 fantasy PPG to opposing WRs).
Over that same seven game stretch, two receivers on the same team have hit double digit fantasy points six times.
Sit Matt Ryan @ Carolina
15 of 19
The Panthers allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs, largely because they are incapable of putting any points on the board.
This game wreaks of a boat-load of Turner-run-right, Turner-run-left and Ryan’s pass attempts will likely be under 30 this week.
Atlanta will be able to run at will against a Carolina defense that allows the sixth most fantasy points to opposing RBs.
Plus, with Jimmy Clausen a danger to throw a pick six on every play, one or two of those is enough to crush Ryan’s chances alone.
Do you have better options?
Sit Pierre Thomas Home Vs. St. Louis
16 of 19
Keep your expectations in check with this guy if he does return this week as he won’t be getting many carries.
Coach Peyton is sort of disgusted with how long it has taken him to get over an ankle sprain, and more to the point Chris Ivory has earned the starting job by averaging 5.2 YPC and scoring five TDs over his last three games.
This was a contract year for Pierre Thomas, and he has earned himself the right to not be re-signed, or be so at a rate MUCH less than he was probably hoping for.
Sit Cedric Benson @ Pittsburgh
17 of 19
The Steelers have faced some pretty good RBs this year (Michael Turner, Chris Johnson, LaGarette Blount, Ray Rice(x2), Chris Ivory, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Fred Jackson, Cedric Benson, & Peyton Hillis) and have allowed only 417 yards on 135 carries for a 3.1 YPC average and two TDs.
Fred Jackson is the only RB to score over 13.5 fantasy points against them but 16.4 of his 22.3 fantasy points came thru the air on a fluke 50+ yard TD.
Benson is only averaging 8.5 receiving yards per game over his career.
The Steelers have only allowed one rush of over 14 yards all season a 17 yard run by BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
Sit Marshawn Lynch @ San Francisco
18 of 19
Don’t be fooled by the three rushing TDs as mentioned earlier the Panthers became the first team in four years to allow RBs to have three TD in two straight games.
The 49ers have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher this season and they are only giving up 3.6 YPC.
Lynch is no good, nor is his offensive line.
Sit Steve Smith-Carolina Home Vs. Atlanta
19 of 19
He has now gone nine games without a TD which is the longest drought of his career.
That streak is likely to hit 13 by then end of the season as Jimmy Clausen only has one passing TD in 200 attempts.
Smith is averaging 54 yards and zero TDs in games that Clausen has started.
Atlanta is fifth-worst in points allowed to wide receivers but it didn’t seem to matter when the Panthers went up against the worst (Seattle) fantasy pass defense as he notched 54 yards and no TDs.
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