You Might Hate Josh Koscheck, But Pick Him vs. Georges St. Pierre

Welterweight Josh Koscheck takes on hometown favorite Georges St. Pierre at UFC 124 Saturday in Montreal in the traditional The Ultimate Fighter coaches' match to mark the end of the season.

Nobody is giving Koscheck a chance in this one. The UFC odds list GSP as the prohibitive favorite at -500 while Kos is paying +300. But Koscheck actually has a pretty good chance at an upset.

St. Pierre comes into this fight after a series of dominating performances, but still Koscheck could very realistically pull off the upset.

GSP's most recent victories came over Dan Hardy and Thiago Alves. He was able to pretty much take them down at will and keep the fight on the ground, where both Hardy and Alves struggle.

B.J. Penn looked like he could push him for all of one round, before GSP started taking Penn down at will.

Probably his closest fight was against Jon Fitch at UFC 87, where GSP dominated on his feet to keep the wrestling specialist out of his element.

Koscheck has the wrestling pedigree to at least challenge St. Pierre and his striking is not as technically sound as GSP, but he has more power and is a danger on his feet.

Unlike the Hardy, Alves and Fitch fights, GSP doesn’t have one area of the fight where he can expect to dominate. You can be sure after all of his trash-talking that Kos will be in top condition and ready to go full out for a full five rounds.

Ultimately I think GSP wins this on the ground, but the true odds for this matchup should be closer to -250 for GSP and +200 for Kos, so all of the value is on Koscheck’s side. Regardless of how much you dislike Koscheck, UFC betting fans should follow the value and put their money on the loudmouth because he does not have the glaring weaknesses that GSP's recent opponents have had.