NFL Predictions for Week 13: Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
As the season wind down it’s difficult to watch certain teams try to cling on to the hopes of a playoff spot regardless of their spotty record.
After my performance last week I know how they feel as I try to turn around the remaining weeks in search of a winning record. Ironically my Best Bets went 5-2 on the week, but overall I finished below .550.
In week 12 of the NFL my record was just 7-9 ATS falling short of the .500 mark and bringing my overall record to a sickly 80-91-2 against the spread (ATS).
Like the 49ers I still have a shot at .500 and will keep trying until I am mathematically eliminated. As long as I don’t look as bad as the Arizona Cardinals, I will press on.
Here are the picks for week 13 in the NFL against the spread.
Washington at NY Giants
1 of 15
Washington at NY Giants
1:00 PM FOX
New Meadowlands Stadium
In an NFC East battle, the NY Giants host Donovan McNabb and the Washington Redskins. The Giants are seven point favorites at Bet Revolution BetEd.com heading into this divisional match up.
The Giants needed a come from behind win to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Giants fell behind early in a sloppy first half but regrouped just in time for Eli Manning to lead the team to a win.
The Redskins fell short at home against Brett Favre and the Vikings and find themselves in a must win situation. If they want to stay alive for a post season spot they need to take down the Giants.
The Giants are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games following a win and will need to win to solidify their presence in the NFC East. The Redskins are 6-15-5 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games on turf.
The Giants should jump all over the Redskins this week and cover this number. The Redskins lost a tough game at home they should have won and they will have a hangover this week that will cost them a post season spot.
Giants -7
Denver at Kansas City
2 of 15
Denver at Kansas City
1:00 PM CBS
Arrowhead Stadium
The Kansas City Chiefs will play against the Denver Broncos with revenge in mind for an earlier bashing they received in Denver. The latest line posted by BetEd.com has the Chiefs listed as eight point favorites. That number is expected to increase as the week moves along.
Chiefs coach Todd Haley refused to shake hands after the game and accused the Broncos of running up the score. He later apologized but it was clear that he was not happy after this game. The Broncos are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 against the AFC, 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 against the AFC West, and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
Matt Cassell has been amazing and is not turning the ball over.
The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 9-4 ATS in the last 13 overall. The Chiefs should win and cover this number, but I am getting it now in case Haley decides not to run it up against Josh McDaniel’s and the Broncos.
Chiefs -8
Dallas at Indianapolis
3 of 15
Dallas at Indianapolis
4:15 PM FOX
Lucas Oil Stadium
The Indianapolis Colts look to get back on the winning track when they host the well-rested Dallas Cowboys. The Colts are listed as five point favorites in this game by online sportsbook, BetEd.com.
The Colts have had to deal with injuries all season long, but lately their best player, quarterback Peyton Manning has played horribly. Manning has back-to-back games with multiple interceptions. The interceptions are a result of bad route running, poor protection, and bad quarterback play. The bottom line is the Colts are playing very badly right now and that is not the time to back a favorite in the NFL.
The Cowboys are off a heart breaking loss at home, but at least are playing inspired football.
The Colts are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss at home. The Cowboys are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and they could upset the Colts as they continue their downward spiral.
Cowboys +5
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Jacksonville at Tennessee
4 of 15
Jacksonville at Tennessee
1:00 PM CBS
LP Field
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans face off in a divisional story that has serious implications in the division. The latest line at BetEd.com has the Titans listed as 2.5 point favorites but that may change when Fisher officially announces the starting quarterback.
Cortland Finnegan will play in this game despite being fined for a fight with Andre Johnson. The quarterback problem that the Titans had against the Texans will not be as much of an issue as it will in this game as Kerry Collins is expected to start for the Titans.
The Titans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Titans defense will stiffen up after the poor performance and Collins will spark the offense.
Titans -2.5
San Francisco at Green Bay
5 of 15
1:00 PM FOX
Lambeau Field
The 49ers kept their slim hopes alive by beating the Arizona Cardinals but now they have a much tougher challenge in the Green Bay Packers. The latest line posted by BetEd.com has the Packers listed as nine point favorites.
The 49ers won the game last week but lost running back Frank Gore for the season with a broken hip. Brian Westbrook filled in without skipping a beat and amassed yardage and moved the ball with ease.
The Packers lost a tough game on the road to the Falcons, but more importantly they lost a game in the standings to the Bears who beat the Bears. The Packers are easily the better team but the 49ers are playing for their post season lives.
Troy Smith is looking better and better at quarterback and Westbrook will add life to this offense.
The 49ers are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 10-4-2 ATS against a team with a winning record.
49ers +9.5
Cleveland at Miami
6 of 15
1:00 PM CBS
Sun Life Stadium
The Cleveland Browns may not make it to the post season but they found a NFL superstar in Peyton Hillis. The running back grabbed three touchdowns against the Panthers and now will set his sights on the Miami Dolphins.
The NFL sports betting point spread at BetEd.com has the Dolphins as 4.5 point favorites.
The Dolphins finished off an impressive road win over Oakland last week, and Chad Henne is back and healthy at quarterback. Tony Sparano took a new approach to the week leading up to Oakland and encouraged his team to have fun. It worked and they will take that same attitude into the game against the Browns.
Browns are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and should have lost to pathetic Carolina. They are in cruise control and the Dolphins should contain Hillis.
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last five against the AFC. The Dolphins still have a outside shot at the playoffs and are playing with a new attitude.
They win and cover against the Browns
Miami -4.5
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
7 of 15
8:20 PM NBC
M&T Bank Stadium
Sunday Night Football will feature one of the best divisional rivalries in the entire NFL when the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers. BetEd.com has the latest NFL odds for this game and the Ravens are listed as three point favorites at home.
The Steelers are 3-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five meetings, the Road team is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings, and the Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Ravens are 3-7-1 ATS against a team with a winning record and will have trouble beating the Steelers with Big Ben back at the helm.
This series is always close and there is rarely a sweep, and this year a split will happen again as the Steelers win in Baltimore.
Steelers +3
Buffalo at Minnesota
8 of 15
1:00 PM CBS
Mall of America Field
The rejuvenated Minnesota Vikings take on the deflated Buffalo Bills in Minnesota. The latest NFL sports betting line posted by BetEd.com has the Vikings listed as 5.5 point favorites.
The Vikings and most noticeably Brett Favre looked like little kids after defeating the Washington Redskins. Favre sealed the victory with a run and the offense called plays that suited the aging gunslinger. Leslie Frazier has gotten the Vikings to respond to him and they are winning ballgames.
The Bills are playing their hearts out but could not get a win against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This loss was particular painful because they came from behind and Steve Johnson dropped the game winning pass in overtime.
This will cause a hangover effect for the Bills. The Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.
Vikings -5.5
Chicago at Detroit
9 of 15
1:00 PM FOX
Ford Field
The Chicago bears and Detroit Lions meet in a rematch after an early season controversial game. The Bears have been installed as three point favorites by the NFL oddsmakers at BetEd.com
In the first meeting the Lions had the apparent game winning touchdown but wide receiver Calvin Johnson did not complete the motion of the catch. The touchdown was taken off the board and the Lions went home losers.
Since then the teams have gone in opposite directions and the Bears seem playoff bound, while the Lions are going to pick early in the NFL draft. The Bears have rushed for 130 yards plus in every game since they started to feed running back Matt Forte.
The Bears could have some letdown after the big game against the Eagles and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite. The Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS when they play a team with a winning record.
This line has jumped to five points with the Lions concern at quarterback. Every week I make a pick purely fading public opinion and this week I will back the Lions.
Lions +5
New Orleans at Cincinnati
10 of 15
1:00 PM
FOX
Paul Brown Stadium
The red-hot New Orleans Saints travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. The Bengals have been fading fast while the Saints are on a winning streak. Due to these teams heading in opposite directions the latest NFL line posted by BetEd.com have the Saints listed as seven point favorites.
In a game that would have been less than interesting leave it flamboyant wide receiver Chad Ochocinco to liven things up. He did his talking through (what else) Twitter.
"Who Dey vs. Who Dat this sunday, who are you going with in this game?" Ochocinco wrote. "Thinking of fighting Darren Sharper in pre-game just because i can win."
Sharper responded to the press instead of Twitter-- "You'll see when his helmet comes off on the first time I hit him whether it's fun -- see how much smiling there's going to be happening then. Then you'll see if it's fun or if it's games," Sharper said. "I don't play games when it comes to the field. You tell Ochocinco that you got to see me on Sunday. Believe it, Twitter king."
The fight will never happen but it could lead to some great hits on the field. The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 1-7 ATS against a team with a losing record. This kind of strategy plays into the Bengals hands, or at least I hope it does because I am taking the points.
Bengals +6.5
Oakland at San Diego
11 of 15
4:05 PM CBS
Qualcomm Stadium
The AFC West rivalry continues this week between the Oakland Raiders and the San Diego Chargers. When the latest line was released on this game at BetEd.com, I was shocked.
The Chargers are on a role, but I am not sure if I can buy into laying double digits in an AFC West game. It seems like this division hates each other and always plays close. Whatever was left of the Jason Campbell-Bruce Gradkowski controversy is over, because Gradowski is hurt and out for the season. Campbell will take over and that is bad news for the Silver and Black.
The Favorite is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings and the Raiders are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 meetings. The Chargers peak late in the season and the Raiders crumble. The Raiders are 18-39 ATS in their last 57 games in December and the Raiders are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in Week 13
The Bolts are getting healthy and peaking at the right time—this game will not be close.
Chargers -13
Carolina at Seattle
12 of 15
4:15 PM FOX
Qwest Field
This one is going to be a snoozer. I don’t want to watch it or bet on it, but since I pick every game. Teams in the NFL hate to be embarrassed and they do their best to focus and rebound in the next game. When the Seattle Seahawks host the Carolina Panthers, they will be looking to forget the last game against the Chiefs.
The NFL Oddsmakers at BetEd.com think they are going to rebound with a win and have listed them as 5.5 point favorites. Here is a news flash; the Seahawks are not that good.
The Panthers are not that bad. They play hard every game although the season is lost and their defense ranks high in the significant stats.
The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games in December. The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Pete Carroll was right when he said his team is playing like garbage.
Panthers +5
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
13 of 15
4:15 PM FOX
Raymond James Stadium
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers get a chance to prove that they are for real when they host the Atlanta Falcons this weekend. The Falcons are listed as three point favorites at BetEd.com.
The Buccaneers are having a great season, but seem to stumble when they face a team with a good record. This week if they beat the Birds they can prove their critics wrong and stay in the mix for the division title.
The Bucs have not been good for years but the Falcons have still had their problems with them as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take the points as the Bucs will win this game on the field.
Buccaneers +3
St. Louis at Arizona
14 of 15
4:15 PM FOX
U of Phoenix Stadium
The St. Louis Rams will take on the Arizona Cardinals this week in a battle of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Rams finished off the Broncos in a big road upset last week, while the Cardinals were exposed for quitters on national television.
It is so bad for the Cardinals that BetEd.com has listed the Rams as road favorites in this game.
That is exactly what I had hoped for. The Cardinals felt the wrath of the media last week and every player was called out. Derek Anderson was the main target but the team was called quitters and trashed by every NFL expert in the business. That to me is a perfect time to back this team.
The Rams have one win on the road and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0 and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Cardinals will be focused and looking for redemption.
Cardinals +3
NY Jets at New England
15 of 15
8:30 PM
Gillette Stadium
This is the game of the week and possibly the game of the year. The New England Patriots and the New York Jets meet with identical record of 9-2.
The latest line posted for this game by BetEd.com has the Patriots listed as three point home favorites.
The Jets are perfect on the road and the Patriots perfect at home. The winner of this game will most likely win the AFC East and this will just be one great game to watch.
As much as it pains me, I will back the Jets in this game. In a division rivalry I will almost always take the points. The offense may be better for the Patriots, but the Jets defense is much better.
The Jets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last four against the AFC East, and 6-2 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. The Patriots are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record and the road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings.
Jets +3
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com.
NFL Week 13 Articles
Saints at Bengals: Preview and Pick
Broncos at Chiefs: Preview and Pick
Dallas at Colts: Preview and Pick
Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Preview and Pick
Jets at Patriots: Injuries Changing the Game
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