NFL YTD Goal-Line Carry/Touchdown Statistics: Foster and Tolbert Lead the Way?

Draught Day

Imagine with me for a second—it's late August, about 90 degrees, the keg is flowing, the pizza has been delivered but no one is eating, the first soiled chew cups (aka a Budweiser can with the top pushed through) start to appear, fantasy football mags and/or laptops are scattered everywhere as 11 super-stressed guys blaze through cyber-space looking for that last bit of information that will supposedly make or break their season.  They sit in anticipation waiting for that 12th guy to bark out the first name on the board. 

Now imagine that person is yours truly (Tenny Stegman, damn glad to meet ya) and further imagine that I bark out the name Arian Foster as the first pick of 2010... how many of the 11 start laughing violently?  But wait, as with a Ginsu infomercial, there's more.  As the draft snakes, and gets back to me, I then bust out with the little known handcuff to Ryan Mathews (who just went two picks before me in the second round) aka Mike Tolbert. Am I already kicked out of the league or what? 

I thought I had a point with that little fake story from above.  Oh yeah, Fantasy Football is not unlike the crazy-eyed girlfriend; a lot of the time, you just never know what you're going to get, and you'll always have something to laugh about.  The only difference is that the crazy girlfriend rarely gets the last laugh, or so I would hope.  If you are getting one-upped by the crazy girlfriend, that's problems.  Sorry ladies or gay dudes, I don’t have even a feeble attempt at a crazy boyfriend anecdote; much love, though. 

Unpredictable

Should I have known that my real second round pick (no, it wasn't Tolbert), Deangelo Williams, would receive fewer goal-line carries than four other Williamses, the least of which is a former first round bust WR that was previously banished from the league for being overweight? Probably not. I am not going to sit here and go down that path, though.  There will be high round busts in every draft.  It doesn't make one person worse than the other in this hobby.  Anybody can draft in the first three rounds. There is no skill in taking Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Roddy White.  Drafts are won in rounds 4-20.  That's where guys like Arian Foster, LT2, Terrell Owens, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Darren McFadden, and Matt Forte were taken. 

Leagues are won, though, with the addition of good waiver wire moves (and trades).  It seems like fantasy 'ballers forget every year that Peyton Hillis, Mike Tolbert, BenJarvus Green-Ellis are the norm, not the exception.  Our job as owners is to get better at trying to predict these trends, and the only way to do that is to look at stats and analyze.  We do this on a daily basis at FFArmory.com.  Today’s dose of fantasy reality is the goal-line carry/TD stats through Week 11. 

There was a ton of activity around the goal-line in Week 11—32 attempts which was the most since Week 3. 

Week 1	Week 2	Week 3	Week 4	Week 5	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11
23	30	37	13	24	25	24	29	25	24	32

It took Cedric Benson five tries to punch in his fourth goal-line TD of the season.  He finished with his best game of the season albeit vs. the fourth most porous run defense in the NFL

Jamaal Charles owners, I have a fun little exercise for you to do.  Add up Thomas Jones and Jackie Battle’s goal-line carries.  Then add on JC’s goal-line carries.  It’s almost like friggin’ magic I tell ya… same number, right?   The Chiefs are among the top five teams in the league in goal-line attempts; Charles has a set of dog-balls in that stat column, yet still sits as the 10^th leading fantasy RB through 11 weeks of games.   If CJ28 can get it done on the goal-line with eight fewer lbs, I don’t see why JC shouldn’t be able to.  And it’s not like Thomas Jones is lighting it up with only four goal-line TDs in 10 attempts (T-2^nd). 

Marshawn Lynch owners should be nearing that point where the super-glue bottle is out and uncorked, and ready to be applied to his spot on the bench. After losing two fumbles on Sunday, the team was left with no choice but to turn to Justin Forsett, who was stuffed on the goal-line on for three attempts.  I think it’s safe to avoid this backfield, despite Matt Hasselbeck’s late-career resurgence.  The Seahawks need to revamp their offensive line.  Forsett still holds some value in a PPR format, but I’d avoid both of these shlubs in a basic.

And finally… There was a miracle on “Forte”eth street this past Sunday; yes, Matt punched in a goal-line carry; his first of seven season-long attempts.  After all of the chatter about the Bears wanting to get their stud play-making $7 million investment involved in their offense, Chester the-1.75-YPC-molester appears to be more of a liability than anything else.  Forte has out-rushed and received him across the board.  It’s time for ‘da Bears to chalk this one up to another failed RB transaction, and focus on the one good RB investment they have made since basically Neil Anderson rocked the No. 35.

* The below table ranks RBs in order from most to least goal-line carries YTD.  The final column is included for contrast and tabs the ball carrier's total rushing TDs

rank	Player	Team	Week 1-9	Week 9	Week 10	Week 11	Total GL Carries	Total GL TDs	Total Rush TDs
1	Arian Foster	Houston	4	1	1	3	11	7	12
2	Mike Tolbert	San Diego	7	0	Bye	2	9	6	7
3	Rashard Mendenhall	Pittsburgh	6	1	0	0	7	4	8
4	Peyton Hillis	Cleveland	5	1	0	0	6	4	8
5	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota	7	1	0	0	8	4	7
6	Michael Turner	Atlanta	7	2	0	1	10	4	6
7	Thomas Jones	Kansas City	6	0	1	3	10	4	5
8	Cedric Benson	Cincinnati	3	2	0	5	11	4	4
9	Chris Johnson	Tennessee	8	Bye	0	0	10	3	9
10	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	New England	5	2	0	0	8	3	7
11	LaDainian  Tomlinson	NY Jets	5	0		0	5	3	5
12	Michael Bush	Oakland	4	1	Bye	0	5	3	4
13	Maurice Jones-Drew	Jacksonville	3	Bye	1	1	5	3	4
14	Brandon Jackson	Green bay	4	1	Bye	0	5	3	3
15	Ray Rice	Baltimore	2	0	0	1	3	3	3
16	Brandon Jacobs	NY Giants	5	0	0	0	6	2	5
17	Ahmad Bradshaw	NY Giants	1	2	0	0	3	2	5
18	Fred Jackson	Buffalo	1	0	1	0	2	2	5
19	LeGarrette Blount	Tampa Bay	3	1	0	2	6	2	4
20	Willis McGahee	Baltimore	3	0	0	0	5	2	4
21	Frank Gore	San Francisco	2	Bye	3	0	6	2	3
22	Joseph Addai	Indianapolis	4	0	0	0	4	2	3
23	Ronnie Brown	Miami	1	0	1	0	3	2	3
24	Aaron Rodgers	Green Bay	3	0	Bye	0	3	2	3
25	Javarris James	Indianapolis	0	2	1	0	3	2	3

The rest of this list can be found at FFArmory.com!  - Tenny