NFL Week 11 Spread Picks and Predictions
Last week was the first quality week in a while, going 9-5 for the first time in three weeks.
There a lot of great games on the schedule this week.
New England hosting Indianapolis and New York visiting Philadelphia are clearly the top two games of the week. All four teams are four of the best in the league. It is easy to envision some sort of the pairings in the Super Bowl.
Some teams will be looking for redemption after falling flat on their faces Week 10, the New York Giants arguably at the top of the list.
With some teams sinking and others riding high, Week 11 could arguably be the best week of the season yet.
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
1 of 17
It may be difficult to pick a road team on the short week this season, especially if the spreads are going to be this low.
Both teams have solid defensive units. Mike Martz’ offense can lead to too many turnovers, which will ultimately be their downfall in this matchup.
The solid run game of the Dolphins and the mismatch Brandon Marshall presents for new starter Tyler Thigpen will be the difference-maker in this contest.
Thigpen has had success in the past and should be able to pull out the victory at home.
Pick: Miami (-1.5)
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)
2 of 17
Buffalo is riding high after finally winning their first game of the season.
Cincinnati continues to disappoint as both offensive and defensive units underachieve.
Terrell Owens should be somewhat excited to face his former team. Both Owens and Chad Ochocinco should abuse the Buffalo secondary.
Still, Buffalo has shown up to play in almost every game this season. The Ryan Fitzpatrick to Steve Johnson and Lee Evans combination should get rolling again. More importantly for Buffalo, Fred Jackson is ready to take the team on his back and shoulder the load out of the backfield with rookie C.J. Spiller out indefinitely.
Bengals finally get another victory, but can’t cover as Buffalo keeps firing back.
Pick: Buffalo (+5.5)
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
3 of 17
The Dallas Cowboys finally made their 2010 debut, or so it seemed.
The Cowboys came out with a vengeance against the New York Giants in Jason Garrett’s debut as a head coach.
The team was clearly fired up and Jon Kitna looked like a quality quarterback against one of the premiere defenses in the league.
Detroit struggled on the road against Buffalo but kept it close.
The easier pick seems to be the Cowboys, who should come out with the same intensity in Garrett’s home debut.
I am still inclined to take the points as the Lions overall have kept most of their games close this season. Calvin Johnson creates a major mismatch against the Dallas secondary.
Pick: Detroit (+6.5)
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Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans (-7)
4 of 17
The Titans lost a game against the Dolphins they should have won. Randy Moss was not utilized to his fullest.
Expect that to change against the Redskins who were obliterated by Michael Vick.
It is safe to assume Vince Young, once often compared to Vick, was taking plenty of notes.
Expect the Titans offense to get rolling early and keep the pressure on the ‘Skins defense.
Donovan McNabb’s offense simply looks out of sync at the moment. They have failed to generate the adequate chemistry to truly gain momentum this season. It is difficult to believe they will be able to do so against the quality Titans defense.
Pick: Tennessee (-7)
Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
5 of 17
Both teams suffered rather embarrassing losses in Week 10.
With Kansas City playing at home for a 1 p.m. game, it is tough to go against them.
Arizona has been a tough team to figure out this season. Their entire team has been inconsistent this season from the quarterback play to their running game to their defense.
The Chiefs are often highly motivated and well prepared.
In front of their home crowd and visibly angered by the shellacking they received at Denver, the Chiefs take this game easily.
Pick: Kansas City (-8)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (+3)
6 of 17
The Vikings are too dysfunctional to trust at this point in the season.
Green Bay coming off the late bye should feel rejuvenated and healthier.
With two weeks to prepare for a division game, the Packers should easily cover the spread. Green Bay’s opportunistic defense should be able to handle the turnover prone Brett Favre just fine in this contest.
The Vikings simply don’t have the heart to compete right now. Aaron Rodgers and his offense should have their way with the Vikings defense on the road.
Pick: Green Bay (-3)
Houston Texans @ New York Jets (-7)
7 of 17
New York has underachieved in their past three games.
The Texans have been hurt by injuries and have disappointed since manhandling the Indianapolis Colts Week 1.
The Jets are back at home where they were last shutout by the Green Bay Packers. Expect Mark Sanchez to have a fine game, but the running game with LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene to control the contest.
Andre Johnson will be sun tanning on ‘Revis Island’ as he will be blanketed by the best cornerback in the league. Darrelle Revis shut down Calvin Johnson two weeks ago and with Andre Johnson still bothered by injuries, Revis should be just fine by himself.
Quarterback Matt Schaub’s knee has been bothering him this week and there is no telling how his knee will react come game time when he is being blitzed repeatedly by Rex Ryan’s ferocious defense.
Pick: New York (-7)
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
8 of 17
Despite coming off the bye, the Raiders probably don’t stand a chance in this game.
The Steelers were flat out embarrassed against the Patriots on national television. It’s a safe bet that the Steelers will be looking for blood against the Raiders to redeem themselves to their fan base.
Ben Roethlisberger realizes the whooping his team received and will have his team focused.
Troy Polamalu is dealing with a strained Achilles tendon but is expected to play. After being concussed against the Patriots, Hines Ward passed preliminary tests, practiced this week and is expected to play.
Darren McFadden may be a superstar and the Raiders are playing very good football over the past month, but this will be all Steelers.
Pick: Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers (+10)
9 of 17
The Ravens lost to the Falcons as I expected since they were on the road on a short week. However, they played Atlanta close and a few miscues at the end of the game cost them the victory.
Ray Lewis’ defense will be on the hunt against a wounded and rather lifeless Carolina offense.
The Panthers could very well get shutout in this contest.
The Ravens offense is starting to pick up, especially Ray Rice. Joe Flacco continues to impress and there is nobody that can guard Anquan Boldin.
Expect Baltimore to win big.
Pick: Baltimore (-10)
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
10 of 17
After Jacksonville beat division rival Houston on a bizarre Hail Mary attempt, they will be soaring high at home thinking they are ready to take on the Browns.
The Browns are playing fantastic football, losing a nail bitter to the Jets.
Odds-makers clearly understand how well the Browns are playing and how much of a fluke the Jaguars victory was.
Peyton Hillis has been a monster all season and will power the Browns to victory.
Pick: Cleveland (+1.5)
Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (+3)
11 of 17
Although the Rams have stumbled in recent weeks, I admire their efforts playing close, competitive games.
Atlanta is rolling. There is no other way to put it. This team has their eyes set on the No. 1 seed in the entire NFC.
Somehow, despite the extra time to prepare, I think the Rams keep it close at home.
Sam Bradford has the accuracy to take his team down the field against a mediocre Falcons secondary.
Falcons win, but the Rams threaten.
Pick: St. Louis (+3)
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-11.5)
12 of 17
The Seahawks pulled out a road victory I did not expect them to.
No way it happens again.
New Orleans coming off the bye will be fully focused as they eye a run to repeat as Super Bowl champions. They need to make up ground in the NFC South and need to do so by manhandling the Seahawks.
The Saints are getting healthier as Darren Sharper has been playing in recent weeks. The team will finally get back their dual threat star Reggie Bush from a broken leg. Expect Bush to be full go come Sunday.
The Seahawks do not have the manpower on defense to keep up with Sean Payton and Drew Brees’ offense.
Pick: New Orleans (-11.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3)
13 of 17
It’s great to see Troy Smith get an opportunity and succeed with that opportunity.
The 49ers are better off with Smith at quarterback over Alex Smith. Frank Gore will once again be the focal point of the offense.
Aquib Talib on Michael Crabtree could be the matchup of the day however.
Tampa Bay is playing great football though. Josh Freeman looks like a Ben Roethlisberger-esque superstar in the making, simply winning games at all costs.
Tampa Bay is playing with too much momentum, never feeling that they are out of a game. They are due for another loss, but San Francisco has been too inconsistent on both sides of the ball.
Pick: Tampa Bay (+3)
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots (-3)
14 of 17
The rivalry continues.
Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
This will be one of the most exciting games of the day, easily.
The Colts picked it up after losing to Philadelphia two weeks ago.
The Patriots gained a ton of momentum after destroying Pittsburgh on the road a week after being embarrassed by the Cleveland Browns.
In a game of this magnitude with both teams coming off much-needed wins to get them back on the right track, go with the points.
Pick: Indianapolis (+3)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
15 of 17
Another one of the premiere matchups this week on prime time television.
The Giants fell flat on their faces against the lowly, but rejuvenated Dallas Cowboys at home.
The Eagles went on the road and owned the Washington Redskins. Superstar and easily Comeback Player of the Year, Michael Vick, put on one of the most spectacular performances in NFL history. He tossed four touchdowns and ran for two.
The Giants will be highly motivated to put a stop the Michael Vick MVP talk and they have the athletic defensive line to do so.
Both teams come in to this game with their eyes on taking the NFC East division.
Have to go with the points in such an impactful division game.
Pick: New York (+3)
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers (-10)
16 of 17
This is a very high spread for a division game after the Broncos destroyed the Chiefs at home.
Even though the Chargers have had two weeks to prepare and are at home after the bye, they could still be without superstar tight end Antonio Gates. His absence didn’t make much of a difference two weeks ago, but the Broncos secondary is far better than the Houston secondary.
The Broncos, somehow, can put up points with Kyle Orton’s effective passing.
The spread just seems too high for a Monday night division game.
Pick: Denver (+10)
Picks
17 of 17
Chicago Bears @ Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Detroit Lions (+6.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
Washington Redskins @ Tennessee Titans (-7)
Arizona Cardinals @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8)
Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings
Houston Texans @ New York Jets (-7)
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Atlanta Falcons @ St. Louis Rams (+3)
Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-11.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers
Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ New England Patriots
New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos (+10) @ San Diego Chargers
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