NFL Week 11 Picks: Will the Cowboys and Michael Vick Repeat Brilliance?
The NFL Week 11 picks are here as the Week 10 games have concluded.
And everyone waits to see what Michael Vick will do next.
The Bears finally are starting to look like a team that can win the division, and everyone wants to know if Dallas can win two in a row.
The Redskins have to prove to their fans and themselves Monday night was a fluke and not a sign of how the rest of the season will go. It won't be easy against the Titans.
This week also features what has become the annual grudge match between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, overseen by Bill Belichick. Although without Tony Dungy, it's not quite the same.
Last Week: 5-9 (Wow, was that a brutal week)
Overall: 92-52
Chicago Bears vs. Miami Dolphins
1 of 16
A short week for both teams, but the Dolphins quarterback situation is about as bad as it can get.
Both Chad's are done for the year, and rumors are floating Pennington's career could be over with his latest shoulder injury.
Tyler Thigpen gets the start with recently-signed Patrick Ramsey backing him up. This game definitely is an opportunity for Thigpen to revive his career, but the odds are against him.
On the Bears' front, their offensive line still is as solid as tissue paper. But Cutler has been handling the pressure better the last few weeks.
The Bears' defense is ranked second in the league against the rush, meaning Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will have a tough time carrying the offense.
With how inconsistent the Dolphins have been—plus the fact they're playing at home, which hasn't been kind to them—I'm going to have to take the Bears.
Bears 30, Dolphins 14
Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers
2 of 16
While the Ravens have had their issues on defense this year, most experts agree the Carolina Panthers barely qualify as an NFL team at this point.
There's just not much to break down here, as the Ravens dominate the Panthers in just about every category. The Panthers may be giving rookie quarterback Tony Pike his first career start.
Even if Jimmy Clausen starts, he's shown that Colt McCoy is the one who got unfairly knocked down in the NFL Draft this past spring.
Ravens 42, Panthers 13
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals
3 of 16
At the beginning of the season, this would've been a no-brainer to go with the Bengals.
But the Bengals have become good at finding new and interesting ways of stinking up the joint and losing.
The Bills just earned their first win last week versus Detroit. But they've also been good at teasing their fans with a lot of points before losing the game.
From a talent standpoint, the Bengals should have the edge. But that could've been said about a few other games this season.
I'm throwing statistics out the window on this one and going with home-field advantage.
Bengals 20, Bills 10
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Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
4 of 16
How 'bout them Cowboys?
The Cowboys upset the Giants in a big way last week. Now you have to re-evaluate everything you know about the Cowboys under new head coach Jason Garrett.
This team no longer is going through the motions, and Mike Jenkins may not be on the field to commit flagrant fouls and draw huge flags.
The Lions, though, are hurting.
Matthew Stafford is out, Shaun Hill is in.
They still have Calvin Johnson and Jahvid Best, plus Ndamukong Suh on the defense. But Hill needs to step up and really play his best, which he did not do last week.
The Cowboys turn it on and outlast a tough Lions attack.
Cowboys 35, Lions 28
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
5 of 16
This game features a ton of great matchups.
Peyton Hillis versus Maurice Jones-Drew, Colt McCoy versus David Garrard. And the question of where each team is going.
The Browns took the Jags apart the last week of the season last year, and the Jaguars front office said they learned from that defeat and are ready this year.
The Browns under Colt McCoy are just a much better looking team, and Hillis makes Josh McDaniels and the Denver front office look dumber every week. However, the defense took a huge hit last week when Sheldon Brown and Scott Fujita were lost to injuries with neither really expected to play this week.
The Jaguars are 5-4 after a Hail Mary pass in Houston last week, but have been inconsistent this year.
However, Jones-Drew can take over a game, and Garrard is almost unstoppable in the fourth quarter lately.
My gut wants me to pick the Browns. But my gut didn't do me a lot of favors last week.
That being said, the Jaguars got lucky last week and are ranked 29th against the pass. This tells me Browns head coach Eric Mangini may try and see if McCoy can find the wide receivers that have been missing the last season-and-a-half.
McCoy takes to the air, and the Jags can't stop him. McCoy becomes the story of the week.
Browns 28, Jaguars 20
Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
6 of 16
The Chiefs got their butts whupped last week versus Denver.
The chances of that happening two weeks in a row are not good.
The Cardinals have all kinds of quarterback problems. All of a sudden, no one knows where Larry Fitzgerald is, the offensive coordinator has gone insane and Ken Whisenhunt really wishes Kurt Warner would've hung around one more year.
Derek Anderson does this to a team, so I'm going with Kansas City and their running game. The Cardinals can't stop it, and Whisenhunt will be setting up his draft board after this week, wondering which quarterback he'll be drafting.
Chiefs 30, Cardinals 10
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
7 of 16
Isn't that picture just adorable?
Now that we've had our moment of zen, let's look at this game. It's actually very dangerous to predict because common sense says the Packers will win this one easy, given the Vikings' state of chaos at the moment.
But let's look at some stats on this one: Clay Matthews leads the league in sacks at the moment, and Favre isn't as mobile as he used to be.
Even though the Vikings' offensive line still is pretty good, Favre is hobbled and can't escape a blitz like he used to.
However, Favre loves to stick it to Green Bay, and there's always that extra something whenever he plays them.
This just in: The Packers are a pretty good football team, one of the best in the league.
This just in: The Vikings hate their coach, love each other, and didn't quit last week despite the adversity.
The Packers still win. I just don't see the Vikings turning it around.
The Packers beat them a few weeks ago before the situation in Minnesota reached meltdown status, so it's hard to see it going any other way now.
Packers 24, Vikings 21
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
8 of 16
Another dangerous game to predict.
The Texans are better than their record. The Jets are good and playing with a chip on their shoulder.
When people say the Jets are playing for the Super Bowl right now, that's not just a figure of speech. Head coach Rex Ryan really has this team fired up, and they've been able to come out and overcome their weaknesses most weeks this season.
The Texans really are a pretty good football team, except their defense is not coming out of the locker room at game time.
The Texans rank dead last in the league in total yards (409.7) and passing yards (301.3) allowed per game. They rank next to last in points allowed per game (28.6) and have allowed at least 24 points in every game this season, according to NFL.com.
But the last two games became defeats due to a freak interception when Andre Johnson couldn't handle the catch, and an against-all-odds Hail Mary catch with no time left on the clock.
So the Texans can win this game. But the question is if they can handle the Jets' defense, Mark Sanchez' increasingly better play, and the resurgence of LaDainian Tomlinson.
It's a close one, but I think the Texans outlast the Jets this week.
Texans 27, Jets 24
Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
9 of 16
Fact: The Steelers have consistently been ranked one of the best teams in the NFL this season.
Fact: The Raiders have come out of nowhere this year to become one of the better teams in the NFL this season.
Fact: This game is going to be brutal.
I'm not going to leave anyone in suspense on this one. I like the Steelers in this game for a few reasons.
They're beat up, they're really, really, angry; and the Raiders are flying high off their recent success.
There's nothing like an angry team to bring a team like the current Raiders down.
This isn't to say it's going to be easy. As stated before, the Raiders are a lot tougher now than they were even six weeks ago.
You can pass on the Steelers now, and the Raiders will take advantage of that. But Darren McFadden probably isn't going to have a good day.
Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger will find a way to put last week's debacle behind them, and it will be a Steelers victory.
Steelers 34, Raiders 24
Washington Redskins vs. Tennessee Titans
10 of 16
So we now know that Redskins owner Dan Snyder isn't as dumb as everyone thought he was on Monday, when he signed Donovan McNabb to a $78-million contract, since it appears almost none of it is guaranteed after this season.
This is a good thing.
While McNabb doesn't have the best talent around him this year, he hasn't exactly been blameless for the Redskins' woes. Now we're not siding with Mike Shanahan here and talking about his cardiovascular fitness, or his command of the two-minute drill.
But we are saying McNabb is inconsistent, and he's been on the downside of that equation this season.
The Titans inexplicably lost to the Dolphins last week despite the Dolphins being down to Tyler Thigpen and one lucky fan who had raffle ticket number: 3263827 at quarterback.
The Titans are a mean team with a lot of physical players, and the Redskins looked soft on Monday night.
With that in mind, I can't go for the redemption vote here and side with the Titans.
Tennessee 32, Redskins 17
Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints
11 of 16
If the Seahawks win, it would qualify as a big upset because the Seahawks have no offensive line and their defense has been giving up big plays.
I could break this down further, but I just can't pick an NFC West team right now unless it's playing another NFC West team. That division is just horrible.
Saints 31, Seahawks 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
12 of 16
Little Story: I grew up and lived five minutes from Debartolo Headquarters in Northeast Ohio.
So there are a lot of 49ers ties to the area despite its location and the rabid Cleveland and Pittsburgh fanbases here.
Troy Smith is an Ohio State graduate. No one needs to tell the dedicated football fan how much Ohio State fans love their alumni and root for them in the pros to try and "stick it" to the national media that always hates on Ohio State for obvious reasons.
So between the 49ers ties and Troy Smith starting at quarterback for the Niners, a lot of TVs in the Northeast Ohio area will be tuned into the Niners game Sunday. You will hear cheers erupting from the sports bars every time Smith makes a good play.
So what does that have to do with the game?
Not much, except to say Smith has a lot riding on this game. He's going to be facing a Buccaneers team that is looking to win the NFC South.
The 49ers have looked better with Smith under center. But the team, overall, looks a little more focused the last few weeks.
Plus, Frank Gore still is in the backfield.
Josh Freeman is becoming the comeback king in the fourth quarter. There's no reason to think this game won't become a scoring fest with the last team to get the ball getting the victory.
Niners outlast the Bucs in what may be described as an upset.
Niners 38, Bucs 31
Atlanta Falcons vs. St. Louis Rams
13 of 16
Matt Ryan and the Falcons are going to the playoffs, and the Falcons are one of the top five teams in the NFL at the moment.
The Rams are not.
This isn't supposed to be an insult to the Rams, who definitely are in the running for "Most Improved Team of 2010." But they still have a lot of holes, and Sam Bradford hasn't even begun to reach his potential yet.
This game is kind of a mismatch, but Bradford probably will keep it interesting.
The Rams do have a good rush defense, so Michael Turner may not get as many yards as the casual observer might think. But the bottom line is Ryan to Roddy White will happen, and that will be the deciding factor in the game.
Falcons 24, Rams 14
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots
14 of 16
The now-annual grudge match between the Colts and the Patriots happens this week.
But the question is if it will be as good as it used to be.
Colts head coach Jim Caldwell is no Tony Dungy, most of Peyton Manning's offensive weapons are injured, and the Patriots' defense isn't what it used to be.
Tom Brady and the offense came to life last week. Now the question is if they can do that two weeks in a row against the Colts, who rank 10th in pass defense and 29th in rush defense.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn't the future of the Patriots backfield. But he's all they got right now, and he isn't bad.
The question will be if Manning can again throw the Colts to a victory through pure force of will, or if Brady and Belichick once again will have Manning's number.
Belichick and the Patriots have Manning's number. Last year's fourth-and-2 won't be the story of this game.
Patriots 27, Colts 24
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
15 of 16
The Giants defense is much better than the Redskins defense.
So if you're expecting Michael Vick to put up another six-touchdown performance, think again.
That being said, the Giants' offense is scuffling. And the "Bad" Eli Manning showed up to play the Cowboys last week.
However, the defense still is tough. But that doesn't mean they can contain Vick.
Containing Vick may be the wrong way to go about it, though. If the Giants take Vick's weapons away, DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, and force Vick to do everything himself, they may wear him down by the end of the second half.
They just have to be sure he's worn down before he puts another 30 or so points on the board.
There's a lot to be said for momentum, though. The Eagles rattle off two wins in a row while the Giants try and figure out what happened.
Eagles 38, Giants 24
Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
16 of 16
The chances this game comes down to a contest of field-goal kickers is pretty remote.
The Chargers have the most potent offense in the league. The Broncos have been putting points on the board even in their losses.
This will be a great matchup between Philip Rivers and Kyle Orton. But I have to give the offensive edge to the Chargers just because they've proved they have a consistent running game.
The Broncos have been maddeningly inconsistent this year, as have the Chargers. But the Chargers still have more victories and look like they're making their usual second-half surge.
Going with the Lightning Bolts.
Chargers 45, Broncos 38
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