Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Week 11 Matchup and Keys To the Game
This Sunday, the Buffalo Bills will travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that sports as ugly a contest as you could find, if you go purely by the standings. Both teams are at the bottom of their division and their combined records are 3-15. Not exactly your Sunday Night or Monday Night marquis match up, as this is a contest between the two worst records in the AFC Conference.
The Bills, however, are coming off the emotional high of their first win of the year against the Detroit Lions and want to prove that it wasn't a one-game wonder. Another win would prove that the Bills have in fact turned a corner and their improved play will continue to show just that; that they are a better team than they initially displayed.
What better opponent for the Bills to do that against than the Bengals, who have dropped six straight contests, and are the only team in the NFL that doesn't have a win in their past five games. Looks like the Bills finally caught a break in the schedule.
So, let's explore what this contest looks to boil down to. Continue on with the slide show.
Terrell Owens Is Twittering That The Bengals Will Win On Sunday
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Terrell Owens got a key to the city of Buffalo in 2009 and left as the team's leading receiver. Now, one year later, Terrell Owens is the Bengals' leading receiver, but he has more wins as a member of the Bills last year. No word yet if he has any more "keys to the city" to add to his collection.
T.O. was busy twittering away this past weekend, saying that he was going to do everything possible to make sure that the Bengals beat the Bills on Sunday. At least Terrell continues to back up his mouth and antics with strong performances.
As of now, T.O. sits at the No. 3 spot in the NFL in the following categories: Number of catches (59) and pass receiving yardage (834). Vintage T.O. He also has seven touchdowns, which makes him king of the hill for this contest.
Looking at the above numbers, it is a wonder if more teams won't be clamoring for his services after he makes the rounds looking for work in the 2011 season. It looks like he is still a top receiver in the NFL.
This Game Should Be A Field Day For The Quarterbacks
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Although Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer both have had their share of throwing long to T.O., both quarterbacks should be afforded some decent amount of time to throw on Sunday, which spells trouble for both secondaries.
Regarding the QB's; Ryan Fitzpatrick has a passer rating better than Carson Palmer, 85.5 to 83. Fitzpatrick has a 2:1 ratio with 14 touchdowns to 7 interceptions, while Palmer has 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions.
The Bengals pass rush could be named Kitty Cats, as it is anything but fierce. The Bengals are ranked next to last (31st) in the NFL with only nine sacks for the entire season. The Bills aren't much better with only 13, good for 26th. Kyle Williams leads the Bills with three sacks while Chris Crocker leads the Bengals with two. To have so little production this deep into the season is a source of concern for both teams.
At least the Bills under new Defensive Coordinator, George Edwards, are beginning to look more comfortable with their personnel, blitz packages and taking some more chances lately in dialing up some pressure on the quarterback. Speaking of QB pressure, the Bills have allowed 58 hits on their QB, which is second worst in the NFL, while the Bengals aren't much better with 47 hits allowed on Carson Palmer.
Like we said earlier, this game doesn't feature two of the NFL's finest.
Injuries Will Have An Impact On This Contest
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Bengals fans will miss seeing Bills' rookie running back C.J. Spiller, as his hamstring injury suffered last week will almost certainly keep him out of this game. In addition, Shawne Merriman, one of the newest Bills, is also expected to miss the game due to his Achilles' issues, as well as, defensive linemen Spencer Johnson, who hurt his hamstring last Sunday.
Those injuries coupled with the Bills placing both Roscoe Parrish and Andra Davis on I.R. only the week before means that the team has less weapons to work with this week against the Bengals. With the exception of Merriman, the other new Bills that have been added to the roster are of the no-name variety, so the quality of the depth of the team is certainly suspect going forward.
For the Bengals, this week is not a walk in the park for them either. During the past week they have placed kicker Mike Nugent, cornerback Morgan Trent and tackle Andre Smith on season-ending I.R. Late last month, they put the I.R. tag on Adam "Pacman" Jones.
So, both teams are somewhat banged up coming in to the contest.
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Talented Pass Receivers In This Contest
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The ball should be flying around on Sunday, weather permitting. I am expecting an air show, as Carson Palmer has a talented receiving corps in Owens, Ochocinco, Jordan Shipley and first-round draft pick tight end Jermaine Gresham. That's right, Bills fans, another tight end for us to be worried about.
The Bills on the other hand are not that shy to toss it around either, as Ryan Fitzpatrick will be looking for his talented duo of Stevie Johnson and Lee Evans. Due to the injury to Roscoe Parrish, the third receiver position is right now in a state of flux, with either David Nelson or Donald Jones looking to assert themselves in to the mix.
Bills tight end Shawn Nelson emerged from his suspension to begin the year, only to return for the first game back against the Baltimore Ravens. Nelson fumbled in overtime, which led to the Raven's winning field goal. Nelson has not been heard from since, so maybe this will be the week he works his way back in to the offensive scheme. Or not.
Converting Third Downs and Keeping Drives Alive
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The ironic part about the statistics of this contest, is that both defenses allow exactly the same percentage (40.8) of their third down conversions for the entire season. It just seems hard to imagine that after hundreds of tries, that they would be the exact same in that area. The Bills have allowed 51 third down conversions, while the Bengals have allowed 49.
For the record, the Bills defense has allowed 191 first downs this year overall, while the Bengals have allowed 165.
The best part of the Bills defense is their pass defense, which is currently ranked seventh, allowing 206 yards a game. The best part of the Bengals defense is their pass defense, ranked 12th. So, it looks like both secondaries will be tested and tested often.
It is also ironic to see both pass defenses ranked as high as they are, recognizing that neither one is benefited from a big pass rush, or sack totals. That is a tribute to the talent on both secondaries.
Running Attack Will Take A Back Seat To The Ariel Show
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Walking off the field last Sunday after leading his team to their first win, Fred Jackson appeared to be drained. He should have been, as he broke countless tackles and picked up two touchdowns and 170 yards on offense, combining his rushing and receiving totals.
This week, the Bills face a Bengals rushing defense that is ranked 22nd in the league, allowing 115 yards per game on the ground. The Bills figure to try to keep the defense off of the field, so sustaining a ground attack like they did last week should be expected. The only issue though is the durability of Fred Jackson, due to the C.J. Spiller injury. If Fred gets hurt, there is a steep drop-off in talent.
The Bengals ground game is led by Cedric Benson, who is averaging 3.6 yards per carry. He has already gained 623 yards, so he is on pace for a thousand yard season. He ranks 15th in the NFL, while the Bills rush defense is last in the NFL and giving up a whopping 166 yards a game. The Bills have been showing some improvement, as they lopped off 100 yards from their normal total last week against the Lions.
If the elements are good, expect to see some ground game mixed in, but plenty of passing this Sunday. The lack of pass rush from either team dictates that the ball will be thrown and thrown often.
What Can We Expect From The Bills This Week?
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I am anticipating a better game from Ryan Fitzpatrick this Sunday. It was revealed after the fact, that Fitzpatrick had his throwing hand stepped on during the game, and looking at some of his inaccurate passes, it would help to explain why some of them missed so badly.
With Spencer Johnson expected to be out, Bills fans will get an overdue look at Alex Carrington this week, so the rookie defensive lineman will be anxious to have an opportunity to contribute.
Shawne Merriman is still expected to be out, and it would not be a surprise to see Aaron Maybin as inactive again this week.
Donald Jones, David Martin and Shawn Nelson did not have many targets last Sunday, so if the Bengals secondary gives extra attention to Lee Evans and Stevie Johnson, then the aforementioned trio will need to step up to take advantage of coverage holes. Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to quickly gain more confidence in throwing to all three, seeing that he has not thrown all that much to any of them yet this year.
All of the new plays the Bills added for C.J. Spiller against Detroit, will be placed in a holding bin until Spiller gets back out on the field. It is a shame that his development took this speed bump, but that is what life is like in the NFL.
Homecoming Game For Ryan Fitzpatrick
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Ryan Fitzpatrick began his career as a rookie with the St. Louis Rams. He then moved on to the Cincinnati Bengals, and when Carson Palmer went down with a bad injury, it was Ryan Fitzpatrick that stepped in as his replacement and led the Bengals for the rest of the season.
Fitzpatrick still has friends on the Bengals team, but as the leader of the Bills offense, he will need to put those friendships aside on Sunday, as he attempts to lead the Bills to their second straight win.
Wonder how many of the Bengals players will look to challenge him if he starts to scramble down the field with the ball in hand?
Blackout Game in Cincinnati?
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The Bengals have been very well-supported by their fans and have a streak running since 2003 for consecutive sellouts on the line. The way that this game is shaping up, due to the lackluster performance of both teams, it appears that a sellout is unlikely, so the game will be blacked out in the Cincinnati area.
The Bengals will be cheering for local Ohio State product Aaron Pettrey, who was signed to replace kicker Mike Nugent. Bringing in an untested player to kick in his first NFL game in November may turn out to be a key factor in the game.
The Bills know Terrell Owens well from practicing against him every day last season. The Bills should have Terrence McGee back this week, so that will help with the coverage concerns that the duo of T.O. and Chad Ochocinco create. Should be a fun and entertaining contest.
Draft Implications On The Line
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Since both teams are in the bottom five of the overall NFL standings win column, the loser of the game takes a significant stride towards securing one of the top three overall picks.
The Bengals have claimed quarterback Dan LeFevour off of waivers from the Chicago Bears. No telling if they view him as the successor to Carson Palmer or not. Maybe they like him as a developmental project like the way the Bills view Levi Brown.
Either way, Andrew Luck is probably on the radar for both teams. Figure that the other big hole for both teams is pass rushers, so whoever is thought to be the next sure fire sack artist, will be another player that both teams are going to be eyeing closer.
If the Bills beat the Bengals, then they may lose out in a tie scenario due to head to head results, when it comes to the draft. If the Bengals win, then the Bills are only worried about three other teams for the elite picks: Carolina, Dallas and Detroit.
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