Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons: Game Preview, Predictions and Analysis
The first Thursday night of the season kicks off tomorrow - an intense matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the Atlanta Falcons. How will each team perform in what looks to be a hard-hitting battle to the finish?
Both teams are 6-2, each with maturing 3rd-year players in the Falcons' Matt Ryan and the Ravens' Joe Flacco. Each has won several close matchups and shown ability to keep sticking around in down-to-the-wire games.
Here are my key matchups, analysis, and final game predictions.
Coming Into The Game: Ravens
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The Ravens stand with an impressive record of 6-2, their only losses coming in close games to the Bengals and Patriots. Their much-hyped offense has started to click, putting up unspectacular but solid points. They rank 15th in passing, averaging 229.2 passing yards a game and averaging 118.8 when running the ball (11th in the NFL). They also average 328 yards per game, 14th in the NFL. If they can overcome their red-zone deficiencies this offense will be a force to be reckoned with.
With the exception of a close, near-heartbreaker game to the Bills, their defense has also been exceptional. The return of Ed Reed, who has notched 3 interceptions, has been a big factor already, and they look to be well on their way after holding the Dolphins to only 10 points last Sunday, including shutting them out in the 2nd half.
The Ravens are becoming a team to look out for in the NFL, and their balanced offensive attack spearheaded by Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice is backed by their smashmouth defense which, although declining from years past, is still a big threat on the gridiron.
Coming Into The Game: Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons' dynamic offense has been their main weapon this year. They are 5th in the NFL, averaging 370.1 total yards per game. WR Roddy White has already made 58 grabs for 796 yards and 5 TDs, and young quarterback Matt Ryan has compiled 13 TDs and 1,949 yards for a passer rating of 90.2. Don't count out Michael Turner either, 244-lb power running back who already has 5 TDs on the season and averages 4.5 yards per carry for a total of 694 yards.
Atlanta's defense ranks 16th in the NFL in passing yards allowed, but surprisingly is tied for 3rd in interceptions (13). The Falcons have demonstrated an ability to explode in the final 15 minutes, outscoring their opponents 49-16 on the season in the fourth quarter.
In a relatively unspectacular NFC, the Falcons are a strong contender and have the chance on Thursday night to be the first NFL team to 7 wins. They're a solid team and have a good chance of going all the way this year.
Key Matchup: Joe Flacco Vs. Matt Ryan
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Both of these quarterbacks have seemed to eerily mirror each other in their short careers, and this season is no exception. In 2010, Ryan has 13 touchdowns while Flacco has 12. Ryan has the edge with 180 completions in 288 attempts for a 62.5% average, while Flacco has 160 completions in 263 attempts for an average of 60.8%.
In this matchup, Ryan has the edge because of Flacco's inconsistency in clutch situations, where he will sometimes throw the ball away or make a badly-timed pass. Matt Ryan has demonstrated ability and confidence in late games, especially when holding on to a lead.
However, the game rests on much more than either of these two quarterbacks, so as long as their performances are fairly close, this game will go either way.
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Key Matchup: Michael Turner Vs. Ravens' Run Defense
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For years, the Ravens defense has been dominant and reluctant to give up yards on the ground. Although declining, they are still a solid unit, only allowing 17.4 total points per game. However, they allow an average of 4.2 yards a carry and 104.8 yards a game. They seem to also have trouble stopping big powerhouse backs (like Peyton Hillis, who slashed through them in their game against the Browns). Michael Turner seems well on track for another season with 4.5 yards per carry and 696 total yards, racking up 100 yards in four of his past six games.
If Atlanta can get their game going on the ground, it could very well be the "swinger" in what is sure to be a close game, opening up more options for Matt Ryan and his receiving corps. If Baltimore can step up and contain Michael Turner early, they rob the Falcons of a very dynamic element of their offense.
Either way, the success of the Falcons' running game is a key factor in this match's outcome.
Final Prediction: Ravens Win, 27-23
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Both of the teams contending in Georgia are teams coming off disappointing 9-7 seasons in 2009. Both are Super Bowl contenders and in the forefront of their conferences. The chips are stacked for a close, down-to-the wire football game.
A lot of the Falcons' bid for the win rests on star receiver Roddy White, who has not practiced so far this week - tight end Tony Gonzalez (72 yards and 8 receptions last week) will most likely be Ryan's main target if White is not active. The Ravens pass defense has turned up better than expected, but they will need the pass-rush to get to Matt Ryan in order to break up big plays.
Homefield advantage is a big one for the Falcons (4-0 in the Georgia Dome this season) but I see Baltimore pulling out the win. They have a stacked receiving core with Anquan Boldin (40 receptions for 546 yards), Derrick Mason (30 receptions for 399 yards) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (11 receptions, 162 yards). Boldin has 5 TDs, already surpassing his 2009 record, while Mason has 2 and Houshmandzadeh has one. Don't count out RB Ray Rice, however, who is always available as a checkdown option, catching seven passes for 97 yards against the Dolphins.
Final Predicted Score: RAVENS 27, FALCONS 23
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