NFL Picks Week 10: 5 Games Closer than the Experts Think and Why
The 2010 NFL season is more than halfway done. Entering Week 10, all eight division races are still up for grabs as no team has more than a one-game lead on second place in each division.
There are familiar faces at the top once again (New England, Pittsburgh) and some surprises as well (Kansas City, Tampa Bay), all contending for division titles. Every game means something because so many different teams are within a game or two of a playoff spot.
Experts like to often lean in the direction of playoff favorites over teams with losing records because, well, it is a logical choice. But more often then not, games turn out closer than pundits expected them to be or go completely the other way (See Patriots-Browns from last week).
Here are five games that will turn out a lot closer than what people think...
No. 5 Seattle at Arizona
1 of 10
Seattle travels to Arizona this week as these teams match up for the second time in four weeks. The Seahawks are coming off a 41-7 beatdown at the hands of the New York Giants. Arizona is heading home after a heartbreaking loss in Minnesota, where they blew a two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter to lose in overtime, 27-24, to the Vikings.
Both teams have lost in the last two weeks and are looking to rebound in a pivotal NFC West game. Seattle is tied for first with St. Louis at 4-4, and could open up a two-game lead with a win over Arizona. The Cardinals could make it a three-way tie for first with a win, barring the result of the Rams-49ers game.
Why It Will Be Close
Many experts will look for Arizona to finally snap out of their losing streak with a decisive home win over the Seahawks. Despite being outmatched the last two weeks, Seattle will likely get quarterback Matt Hasselbeck back from injury. Hasselbeck is reportedly coming along well after his concussion two weeks ago against Oakland.
Arizona, although having played much better than Seattle in the last two weeks, has still lost each game and now have lost three straight games. This includes a 22-10 loss to the Seahawks three weeks ago in Seattle. Derek Anderson is back at quarterback, but there are still more questions than answers about his play at this point.
The winner...
Pick: Arizona
2 of 10
It was very tempting to pick Seattle to go into Arizona with Hasselbeck back at quarterback, but Arizona has just played too well the last two weeks to not have some major motivation this week. They have dropped the last two games by six points combined.
In a very close game, the Cardinals should feed off the home crowd to get back in the NFC West race.
Arizona 24-21
No. 4 St. Louis at San Francisco
3 of 10
The 49ers and Rams are both coming off bye weeks and face off in a big matchup with huge NFC West implications.
St. Louis is 4-4, and with a win and a Seattle loss, will be in sole possession of first place. In any other division, the 49ers season would be done. But even at 2-6, they are only two back of first place and can move within one game with a win at Candlestick.
Why It Will Be Close
The 49ers open as pretty big home favorites over the Rams at -6 and have won two of their last three games. This game has all the signs of a 49ers win, but don't write off these St. Louis Rams. Despite being 0-3 on the road, they have lost by a combined three points in road games against Oakland and Tampa Bay.
Another major factor is rookie quarterback Sam Bradford. He has led the Rams to a 4-4 record after the team had gone 1-24 in their previous 25 games. Everyone has been waiting for the 49ers to break out of their funk, but don't assume it will be this week against the upstart Rams.
The winner is...
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Pick: St. Louis
4 of 10
The game will be a back-and-forth struggle between these division rivals, but look for St. Louis to get their first road win of the year in San Francisco. Troy Smith performed admirably at quarterback last week in London against the Broncos, but the rookie Bradford is still the more sound player under center.
There is an aura about this St. Louis team, and the Rams should be victorious Sunday.
St. Louis 23-14
No. 3 Houston at Jacksonville
5 of 10
A lot of fans are down on the Houston Texans right now. Houston, after jumping to a 3-1 start, has lost three of four and now find themselves again at .500 at 4-4. Jacksonville has been Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde all season long and are also at 4-4.
Despite a dynamic offense with quarterback Matt Schaub and running back Arian Foster, the Houston defense has just been atrocious. The Texans have given up at least 29 points in their last four games.
The Jaguars are inconsistent on offense, where they have scored 30 points in three of their wins and have scored only three points in two of their losses.
Why It Will Be Close
Jacksonville is coming off a bye week and have momentum coming off a road win against Dallas. With Houston's defensive struggles and losses as of late, they are a slight underdog to the Jaguars on the road. In a game that normally would be all Houston picks, experts may swing to Jaguars to win at home.
In an AFC South showdown between these 4-4 teams, they are still only a game out of first place. The loser, unfortunately, would be in sole possession of last place and two games behind. Expect both of these teams to come out firing with so much on the line.
The winner is...
Pick: Houston
6 of 10
In a game between two awful defenses, look for Houston to defeat Jacksonville in a shootout. The Jaguars have been too inconsistent on offense, and in a game of bad defenses, the consistent offense should be victorious.
There are still major concerns about the Texans defense, but those worries will be nullified for at least one week.
Houston 34-24
No. 2 Philadelphia at Washington
7 of 10
Philadelphia travels to Washington on Monday night in a battle of 5-3 teams.
The Eagles are coming off a huge win over Indianapolis last week in the return of Michael Vick, who has been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2010 season.
The Redskins are coming off a bye week of controversy as a result to the benching of starter Donovan McNabb in the final two minutes, only down six to the Detroit Lions. Already dealing with the loss of Clinton Portis, Washington now has to deal with locker room discomfort in arguably the biggest game for either team to date.
Why It Will Be Close
The Eagles should be a popular pick in this game mainly due to the questions surrounding the Redskins and the play of Michael Vick. But don't rule out the Redskins in a battle of bitter NFC East rivals. Washington has always proven to be a thorn for Andy Reid during his tenure as coach and always have given the Eagles a game.
McNabb and company went into Philadelphia earlier this season and won, 17-12. Vick did get hurt during the game early, but regardless of circumstances, the Redskins were victorious. McNabb has some serious motivation this week playing his former team and proving to his coaches that he still is the man at quarterback.
The winner is...
Pick: Philadelphia
8 of 10
The Redskins have beaten the Eagles once already and won't be intimidated by Philadelphia. However, the Eagles are just too talented on the offensive side of the ball, and with Michael Vick back at quarterback, shouldn't miss a beat.
The Eagles were caught off guard in their first matchup, but should be more than ready in this pivotal division matchup.
Philadelphia 27-16
No. 1 New York Jets at Cleveland
9 of 10
The New York Jets were a trendy Super Bowl pick and are tied with New England for first in the AFC North. Despite arguably the most talented defense in the NFL, the Jets have escaped several games with close wins in the final moments. They benefited from a pass interference on fourth down to set up the winning score at Denver two weeks ago, and were able to rally from 10 down in the waning moments of the fourth to beat Detroit in overtime.
Cleveland could have been a contender in the AFC North if they were able to hold onto fourth-quarter leads early in the season. They have won two straight and there's no reason to think they cannot contend in every game, especially after their dominant wins over New Orleans and New England.
Why It Will Be Close
The Jets are very talented on both sides of the ball, but are somewhat inconsistent on the offensive end. They have won close games and that shouldn't be a mark on them because good teams find ways to win.
Cleveland has allowed only one rushing touchdown all season and has benefited from the play of running back Peyton Hillis and cool-headed Colt McCoy managing the offense.
The winner is...
Pick: Cleveland
10 of 10
The Jets could go on and play for the Super Bowl when all is said and done, but the offense has played too inconsistently lately and they were lucky to escape with a win in Detroit. Cleveland has built up a ton of momentum and with a stout defense as of late, has gotten some big wins.
Look for Rob to get the better of brother Rex in the Ryan Bowl in a low-scoring affair in Cleveland.
Cleveland 16-10
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")